Turkey, Poland: Leveraging Regional Interests

Turkey, Poland: Leveraging Regional Interests




Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan traveled to Poland on May 14 to hold talks with Polish officials. But his real intention for the visit was to catch up with the United States on Turkeys negotiations in the Caucasus before he leaves for Russia a set of negotiations that is growing more complex by the day.
Analysis

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a visit to Warsaw on May 14 to meet with the Polish leadership. Poland and Turkey do not have much in common directly, though they are tied to one another for important issues.

Poland, after all, is heavily reliant on Russia for nearly all its energy needs, and it knows that Turkey a key energy transit hub is Europes golden ticket to diversifying energy away from Russia. Because Turkey is on an ascendant path and is expected to get much more involved in issues concerning Russia and Europe, Poland wants to make sure that its needs are clearly expressed to Ankara.

Turkey, meanwhile, is raising its profile in Europe and using the Warsaw trip as an opportunity to push its bid for membership in the European Union. As expected, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk came out with strong support for Ankara and seemingly chided France and Germany for attaching additional conditions to Turkeys EU bid.

The more interesting aspect of Erdogans trip to Warsaw concerns the Caucasus and Turkeys position between Washington and Moscow. STRATFOR has been tracking closely the Russian-supervised negotiations between Turkey and Armenia on re-establishing diplomatic relations, as well as the related set of negotiations among Russia, Europe, Turkey, the United States, Armenia and Azerbaijan on trying to first reach some sort of settlement on the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh to assuage Azerbaijans concerns.

Though unconfirmed, STRATFOR sources have reported that Erdogan is expected to have a private meeting with U.S. officials while in Warsaw. This U.S.-Turkish meeting would come after Erdogan met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Baku on May 13, and before Erdogan is expected to travel to Sochi on May 16 for a private meeting with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This is the real reason why Erdogan went to Poland. Erdogan needs to chat with the United States but does not want an official meeting with the Americans (which the Russians would interpret as symbolic), as it would offset his May 16 trip.

Russia understands that Turkey, like itself, is on a resurgent path. Moscow has no desire to get into any big tussle with the Turks, considering that Turkey is a NATO member. Additionally, Turkey is the gatekeeper to the Black Sea, a crucial link in Europes plans to diversify its energy supply away from Russia. Ankara also is a serious contender for influence in areas that are critical to the Russian national interest, such as the Caucasus. Thus, Russia has played nice with the Turks and has even initiated and since facilitated Turkeys talks with Armenia, currently a client state of the Russians.

But Russia also has plenty of reason to distrust Turkeys intentions, especially because the United States has shown itself to be the primary backer of Turkeys rise and is collaborating with Ankara on strategy in the Middle East, Eurasia and South Asia. The United States is happy to see Turkey enhance its influence in the Caucasus by patching things up with Armenia, but Washington also wishes to leverage Turkeys influence as a counter to Russia. There is no question that Turkey and the United States are greatly enhancing their strategic relationship and will be collaborating on a number of key issues, including Russia.

But Turkey still has a significant economic relationship with the Russians that it needs to protect. And Ankara is not in the mood to upset Moscow while it is in the process of restoring diplomatic ties with Armenia as Russia has the authority to control those negotiations.

This U.S.-Turkish meeting in Warsaw, then, will be about the Americans and the Turks setting a game plan before Erdogan meets with Putin. Turkey has its own interests in mind and will do its best to avoid being caught in the middle of a broader U.S.-Russian geopolitical struggle. Nonetheless, with Russia resurging, Turkeys star rising and the United States trying to juggle its foreign policy priorities, the Turkish position is bound to get more complicated as these negotiations intensify.






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