but you know you still have those 10 cell ones waiting as a good piece of insurance.
I think if an RE ever told me cheerfully that he felt I had a 40% chance, I'd feel pretty good about how things has gone.

But I think sometimes it's a bit of a defense mechanism for us to not feel too optimistic.
I can well understand your sadness about the embryo that was discarded. That is hard.
It sounds like your chances are quite good. Hang on to that!