Will Greece exit Euro zone? The Royal Bank of Scotland believes there is a 90 per cent chance of Greece leaving the euro in the next 12-18 months, while Citigroup says there is a 50-75 per cent chance. So approximately June 2012 Greece will get the boot.
The percentages are staggering! All economist and specialist on this subject say the same. Greece will exit soon! So why does Greece desperately hold on to Troika and further austerity measures? The Greek elite knows very well that when Greece exits the EU, it will loose all political and financial support it gets from the EU. Especially if Greece defaults and refuses to pay back the debt, the whole of EU will turn on Greece and the good people of the EU will want to see the heads of the Greek rolling when they loose all their savings to the Greeks. If Greece heads this way, on the long-term(10/20 years), will ultimately lead to partitioning of Greece. That is; Crete, south-Macedonia and west-Thrace(Turks). Those will want to brake apart from the Greece yoke after Grexit on the long-term.
Greece is in a dire state. Unfortunately Greece doesn't have any good options left. Further austerity will lead to crippling of its economy(what is left of it) and social unrest, chaos and riots. Although at first sight it looks that Greece actions to stay in the EU looks counter-productive but if Greece gets kicked out it will face much bigger consequences. Greece will loose its connections with EU, turning Greece into an Iraq, a Pakistan or an Syria on the long-term.
After Grexit they immediate return to the Drachma. At this point all Greek savers will deposit their savings on foreign banks. This will immediately will lead to the bankrupt of Greek banks. Total chaos will start when people loose all their savings. Massive riots, demonstrations and further economic, financial and social brake-down. Greek black market will raise and more tax avoidance and corruption will emerge in Greece. Further escalation of dire state of Greece.
The question is not, if this will happen, but when will it happen.
Greece economic will shrink by 50% only the first year and will continue to shrink the coming years. Huge internal unrest, chaos, anarchy, demonstrations, poverty, riots and corruption will follow. The reports say this will happen next year and it is inevitable.
By this time Turkey will have another unstable country at its borders. People fleeing Greece because of poverty, shortage of basic needs, chaos, riots and demonstrations on the street. Neighbouring countries such as Turkey will have to accept influx of Greeks.
These images will be broadcast in Europe and Turkish television of Greeks fleeing Greece:
If we look it pure from Turkey's perspective. Next year at that moment Turkey will have to deal with Syrian and Greek refuges. The reports are very clear on this subject. Chit will hit the fan. The question is not if it will, but when it will.
Huge changes will happen in the Balkan. Especially on the long-term, the territory that is being held by Greece at the moment could look different.