http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=balloon-2009-11-05
Economic balloon problem
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Thursday, November 5, 2009
MTHAT MELEN
There was an article in the Dünya newspaper referring to Nouriel Roubini's column in the Financial Times on his expectations of a new and deeper global crisis. Since March the prices of risky assets have risen prematurely and rapidly. We have to expect another and deeper global crisis soon," says Roubini.
Getting short-term, low-interest loans and buying long-term, high-interest papers will have negative impacts on investment markets. This has created an inflated balloon that will explode soon. And it will cause the gravest assets crisis in the world, he said.
Of course giving such somber news has created an unsavory atmosphere but we have to face the facts. Due to economic problems that continue in the U.S., the world economy is not able to enter a period of recovery. On the other hand it is obvious these problems will not be overcome as easily as trying to get rid of one balloon because there is a possibility of getting caught into another, larger one. It is like trying to ride a bicycle which doesn't move and gets bigger and heavier. You can ride a smaller bike easily but trying to keep your balance and get along on a bigger one becomes increasingly difficult.
In the meantime what does Turkey do, you may ask? Nothing. We paint a rosy picture, we behave as if nothing is happening and don't even mind what is happening outside us. Will it have an impact on Turkey if this inflated balloon explodes? According to government officials who call themselves responsible officials, nothing can happen to Turkey. As we quickly changed statistical numbers and doubled our GDP one early morning we can easily erase our debts.
Neither our budget nor payments balance deficits are important. I cannot conceive how the stagnating Turkish production sector and our financial markets which refuse to pay even one cent to the sector can survive this state of affairs? We are focused only on our opening policies. I wish these opening policies will create food and money for the unemployed and become remedies to the people living in rural areas and the agriculture sector.
I have read Prof. Kenan Mortan's article. He was referring to Dani Rodrik's opinions. The only meaningful motivator is the industrial goods which can be used in trade. If you cannot increase your industrial production you will break the mystery of the high deficit foreign trade. According to international cooperation theory, countries like Turkey are target markets and don't get into much difficulty. But as they export poor value added goods and become value added riches they cannot break their vicious circle, Rodrik says.
Turkey's volume of exports and imports are equal. The drop in imports brings down tax revenues as you are unable to collect a higher amount of revenue taxes than the amount you collect through VAT and Special Consumption Tax and are unable to create a just tax system.
There is nothing more for us to do but pray. I hope the balloon will not explode. But if it explodes I don't want to think about what will happen. I sincerely hope that neither of us will have to pay the high price the architects of this present economic policy will leave behind.