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A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

May 7 2012 at 6:08 AM
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Crete Revenge  (Login cretegeorge)
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A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

Turkey is emerging as an economic superpower in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East with greater influence in regional politics. Promoting itself as a "model Muslim democracy," and widely admired by other Middle Eastern nations, Turkey now faces a novel problem that Europe has long contended with: a falling birth rate.

Since the 1990s, Turkey's fertility rate has steadily declined, due to, among other factors, rising household incomes, expanded access to higher education for women and increased birth control practices.

"The use of birth-control methods has increased in Turkey a lot, but that is not the only reason for the decline in population," an obstetrician named Kaan Kocatepe told Hürriyet Daily News, a Turkish newspaper.

"Many women want to have a successful career. That's why the maternity age has increased, as women have started giving birth to their first child in their 30s."

Indeed, Dr. smet Koç, a demographer at Hacettepe University in Ankara, warned that Turkey's fertility rate is now below 2.1, the replacement level, which suggests the population will eventually decline.

The fertility level in more prosperous western Turkey is now about 1.5 -- roughly the same as in western Europe.

The number of children produced by the average Turkish woman has plunged to two from three over just the past two decades, coincident with Turkey's rise as an economic power.

But there is a wrinkle to this whole phenomenon.

The Kurdish community of Turkey, which currently represents at least 15 percent of the population and dominates the southeastern region, has such a high birth rate, that some observers -- most prominently Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan -- believe Kurds could become a majority in Turkey within two generations.

The proposed scenario is somewhat similar to the Palestinian situation in Israel, where Arabs could become the dominant ethnic group in the 'Jewish State' within 30 years or so; or the southwestern United States, where Hispanics and Mexican-Americans are likely to become the majority within a few decades.

According to Turkish government statistics, the average Kurdish woman in Turkey gives birth to about four children, more than double the rate for other Turkish mothers.

Thus, Turkey is facing a demographic time-bomb -- Kurds, who tend to be concentrated in the country's impoverished southeast and are generally poorer and less educated, could conceivably outnumber Turks within about 30 years should present patterns persist.

Erdogan seems to be certain this will happen.

"If we continue the existing trend, [the year] 2038 will mark disaster for us," Erdogan warned in May 2010.

The prime minister, who has repeatedly called on Turkish couples to have three children and even suggested financially rewarding such fecundity, once declared: "Our population is getting older. Right now we are proud of our young population, but if we don't pull these numbers up, Turkey will be in a difficult position by 2038."

Some Turkish academics scoff at Erdogan's solutions as unrealistic.

Cem Behar, an economics professor at Istanbul's Boazici University, told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review: "It's clear that Turkey is going to face a decline in the growth rate of its population. Yet you cannot address such an issue by telling people to have more children."

Behar added: "There is no family policy in Turkey. And I don't think anyone is going to have more children just because [Erdoan] told them to do so. If the government really wants to promote having more children, it needs to prepare the necessary conditions for it, such as lowering taxes for those families or strengthening pre-school education."

A rapidly rising Kurdish population would pose sharp problems and challenges for the Turkish state and society.

Kurds have long faced discrimination, deprivation, even state-sponsored violence, throughout their long and epic residence in Turkey. As such, many Kurds seek a separate homeland, or at the least, autonomous self-rule in the southeast.

Kurds represent a dominant and highly contentious theme in Turkish politics.

For many years, it was, in fact, illegal for Kurds to speak their own language, use Kurdish names, play Kurdish music, etc. -- part of a comprehensive attempt by Ankara to wipe out the separate ethnic identity of the Kurds. Indeed, some Turks regarded Kurds simply as 'Mountain Turks.'

The Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), a Marxist militant movement which Turkey, the European Union and the U.S. brand as a terrorist group, has fought for a separatist nation for decades. The PKK's periodic conflicts with the Turkish military have cost tens of thousands of lives on both sides -- seemingly with no resolution in sight.

Of course, many, perhaps most, Kurds in Turkey do not support the PKK and seek to assimilate with mainstream Turkish society -- while retaining their distinct Kurdish culture, language and customs.

Now, with the Kurds having more babies than the Turks, will Kurds really become a majority in a country where they have long suffered abuse and deprivation? And if that were to happen, how would that affect the Kurds' status in Turkey?

International Business Times spoke with an expert on Turkey and demographics to explore this topic.

Dr. Tino Sanandaji is a PhD in Public Policy at the University of Chicago who does research on demographic change and its link to policy.

IB TIMES: Is the overall fertility rate in Turkey declining because the country is becoming wealthier, household incomes are rising and more women are using birth control methods?

SANANDAJI: Yes, sooner or later this happens in all industrialized countries -- parents prefer to have fewer children and invest more time and resources on them rather than having a large family.

IB TIMES: The birth rate for Kurds is more than double that of Turks. Is this due to the fact that Kurds are generally poorer and less educated?

SANANDAJI: Poorer, less educated and more rural. However, other factors should not be ruled out since low-income Kurdish women also have higher birth rates than low-income Turkish women.

IB TIMES: Prime Minister Erdogan warned that Kurds could become a majority in Turkey by 2038. Is this a realistic prediction?

SANANDAJI: No, that is impossible. Demographic change is a slow process even when birth rates differ sharply, because so many generations are already born and will be around for decades.

In the 1930s, the Kurds constituted about 9 percent of the population of Turkey, and though they had higher birth rates than the Turks it still took until the 1990s until they reached the 18 percent level.

Since it takes a long time, underlying forces can change in the meanwhile. Therefore, we should be careful about extrapolating current trends into the future. Nor can demographic trends be dismissed using the equally silly argument that since demographic predictions were sometimes wrong in the past, all predictions are always wrong in the future. Plenty of predictions turned out to be accurate.

This is a sensitive topic to some. When people read that the population share of their "tribe" is shrinking there is often a primal psychological response of fear, anger or denial, and wide exaggerations in both directions.

IB TIMES: In the event Kurds become a majority in Turkey, will that render the Kurdish nationalist and separatist movements irrelevant and moot?

SANANDAJI: If history is any guide, that development would raise tensions with the Kurdish separatist movement, because they will be more likely to win a democratic or military struggle once they are the majority population.

IB TIMES: If the Kurds are becoming more assimilated, why

 
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Crete Revenge
(Login cretegeorge)
Group General

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 6:16 AM 

At least in few years the borderlines will named Greek-Kurdish instead of Greek-Turkish. Kurds have the better weapons, her d@cks, LoL. [linked image]

Turkish planing of indigenous projects [linked image]

[linked image]
April/21/2012
Turkey is not like China. Turkey is, just like Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal.
www.hurriyetdailynews.com

 
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Nutuk
(Login nutuk)
The Conquerors (Turkey)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 6:30 AM 

Or the world will accuse Turkey of another "genocide".

Kurd problem is indeed a ticking timebomb, but not only for Turkey!!!!! Since it creates for Turkey the problem of "lebensraum" and countries like Greece for instance are the first in line to experience this Turkish need. In the end you may not have a lot to laugh about Cretin.

--------------------------------------------
Turkiye Turklerindir (Mustafa Kemal Ataturk)
[linked image]

 
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WAFFer
(Login GavurYunan)
Hellenic Hoplites (Greece)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 8:06 AM 

Turkish population is shrinking. They also abandon the countryside and emigrate to the limited space of the crowded cities, like Istanbul or Izmir. So, why would they need Lebensraum now?

Answer: They know they will lose all the Eastern territories to the Kurds, so they want to offset it by conquering territory in the West. In other words they confess their inevitable defeat by the Kurds. Interesting!


..



"The Turkish Cypriots looted, robbed and ravaged Greek Cypriot properties. They must start producing instead of being mere consumers. The Turkish Cypriots wanted to live without working!"

Major-General Bedrettin Demirel (1917-1988)
Commander of the Turkish Invasion Forces in 1974

 
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WAFFer
(Login GavurYunan)
Hellenic Hoplites (Greece)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 8:07 AM 

Crete Revenge, provide the link to this text please.

..



"The Turkish Cypriots looted, robbed and ravaged Greek Cypriot properties. They must start producing instead of being mere consumers. The Turkish Cypriots wanted to live without working!"

Major-General Bedrettin Demirel (1917-1988)
Commander of the Turkish Invasion Forces in 1974

 
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theBLUEwolf
(Login theBLUEwolf)
The Conquerors (Turkey)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 8:28 AM 

Plan 1 ...

Turkiye joins EU ...then Kurds are EU's problem...(watch them immigrate in bulk)


Plan 2...
Turkiye puts restriction on family's for kid numbers... kid number will be decided by families income rate keep the rate high and this will limit kid numbers from 2 to 3... No kid if you cant look after it .





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[linked image]

 
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Varangian
(Login varangian)
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 8:39 AM 

^^^

Turkey is NOT China mate.. all things being equal.. I'd rather have Greece's problems than turkey's ticking Kurdish timebomb..




 
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theBLUEwolf
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The Conquerors (Turkey)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 8:54 AM 

^^^^^^


Turkiye is not China and that is why the monetary Rule will be implemented ... If you do not have the money to look after your kid then you wont be allowed to have one .(which is what every single SMART human being should do in the first place instead of multiplying like bacteria )



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[linked image]

 
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Varangian
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:02 AM 

Now, Now Now.. don't get all emotional on us Bluey.. You're taking about not been able to look after kids ONLY because they're Kurdish.. if the shoe was on the other foot.. and it was the Turks.. with the swollen birth rate, would you be singing the same song? Don't think so..

Fair is Fair Bro..




 
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theBLUEwolf
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The Conquerors (Turkey)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:14 AM 

Frekin hell of course i would ... i dont get a bird because i wont be able to spend time that is needed to look after it and it requires money(even though its very low and i can easily afford it) which i prefer to spend on ...lets say buying jager bombs ...

On the other hand these Imbeciles with 30 children ...30 frekin children that they cant even NAME .... i met people like that ... kid says my father attacked me thinking i am thief ...

HE DOES NOT KNOW WHAT CONDOM IS ... Woman there marry early age (which is the first illegal part) then multiply like dogs ... then cry Turkiye government doesnt look after my children ... we will join PKK ...go fuk off then.


I am truly sick and disgusted by this ... even i cannot cope with something like this i saw so many kids suffer this way .

So this is a requirement ... we have to implement such laws ... it is truly necessary .



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[linked image]

 
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Varangian
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:19 AM 

I am truly sick and disgusted by this ... even i cannot cope with something like this i saw so many kids suffer this way .

My question to you mate is.. would YOU still be "sick and disgusted" if it was the Turk's that had "so many kids" ? or is your.. repulsion limited to the Kurdish family unit?

lol..




 
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theBLUEwolf
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The Conquerors (Turkey)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:26 AM 

Varangian Law will not be implemented on KURDISH population ..it will be implemented on the WHOLE COUNTRY ...

And yes ... In China Turkish population is minority ...and i am truly happy that they implement 1 children law in China ...

People with cries of Life is hard ...we cant bring bread to home to my children ...

There isnt enough bread for your children in the town ... you have 30 children ... 5 wives ... [linked image]


On the other hand rich Kurds can create their own town if they want with their 100 children... if he can manage to look after them ...go ahead multiply ...

do you know why? because rich child doesnt give a fuk about Kurdistan ...there is nothing but sand , camels and oil in kurdistan ...its a frekin sausage party ... He will live his life in west ...just like every other rich child ... because he got opportunities for him ...

Poor ..doesnt ... then he ends up throwing rocks to police for a candy ...or worse throws home made explosives which blows in his own hand ...then guess what ...TURKIYE GOVERNMENT LOOK AFTER MY KID ...

yes varangian ...i am pro population control.

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[linked image]

 
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WAFFer
(Login GavurYunan)
Hellenic Hoplites (Greece)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:28 AM 

..


    
This message has been edited by GavurYunan on May 7, 2012 9:29 AM


 
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Varangian
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:35 AM 

You don't strike me as a poster boy for 'ansell condoms' Bluey..lol... of course, i also think along the same lines... kids are a HUGE responsibility that shouldn't be taken lightly.. BUT at the end of the day.. demographics is the new battle ground.. just look at Israel, where they estimate that by 2050 the majority of the citizens will be Arab.. maybe Turkey should start bombing the PKK with condoms.. it's the only way to win it seems OR put contraceptives in the water supply.. either way Turkey's phucked (pardon the pun)...lol

 




 
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Varangian
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:37 AM 

Gavur..

Don't be shy.. if you have something to say, just say it.. i promise i won't laugh...lol




 
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WAFFer
(Login Corpusvile)
The Conquerors (Turkey)

Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:52 AM 

"At least in few years the borderlines will named Greek-Kurdish instead of Greek-Turkish."

In a few years, eh? I wish you'd actually read what you post and for once try to avoid looking like a complete arseclown after opening a thread.

Quoting the article:

"IB TIMES: Prime Minister Erdogan warned that Kurds could become a majority in Turkey by 2038. Is this a realistic prediction?

SANANDAJI: No, that is impossible. Demographic change is a slow process even when birth rates differ sharply, because so many generations are already born and will be around for decades.

In the 1930s, the Kurds constituted about 9 percent of the population of Turkey, and though they had higher birth rates than the Turks it still took until the 1990s until they reached the 18 percent level."

Guess what, based on the exact same Kurdish growth rate (which is slowing down, actually), you'll have aged 60 more years before the Kurds become 36% and still remain a minority. So if I were you, I really wouldn't hold my breath to see any renaming of the Turkish-Greek border.



Turkish Pride

Corpus is a Suse Linux user. Why aren't you?

 
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Varangian
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 9:57 AM 

Quote..Prime Minister Erdogan warned that Kurds could become a majority in Turkey by 2038. Is this a realistic prediction?

So you think that that other nationalist clown knows better than Erdogan and his legion of advisers and the entire Turkish public service.. give me a break Corpus...lol 




 
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WAFFer
(Login ekrem_yilmaz)
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 10:02 AM 

Erdogan didn't say anything of that.
The article is ****, really.

Erdogan said, that by 2038 demographically Turkey will have an old population and will be in a bad position (0,2 % population growth) and that Turkey prouds itself to be a young country and that every couple should have 3 children not to get the problems of Europe.

[linked image]


    
This message has been edited by ekrem_yilmaz on May 7, 2012 10:03 AM


 
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Varangian
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 10:06 AM 

^^^

What a load of crap.. the whole article is about the Kurds.. Erdogan is just using the "older " reference because he hasn't the guts to say Kurd.. 




 
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Romulus
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Re: A Kurdish Majority In Turkey Within One Generation?

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May 7 2012, 10:10 AM 

if this happens then it will be like Mana from heaven...

I'm sure the Kurds will be open to some 'negotiations' at some stage regarding:

- Constantinople
- Smyrni / Ionia
- Cyprus

etc

we will make some good deals with those guys ultimately....

=============================================


 
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