Commercials long: 519,887
Commercials short: 501,441
Net long: 18,446

They not only didn't flip, they increased net longs significantly. And open interest is up sharply. I'm not sure what to make of the increase in open interest, I'll have to study it.

Larry

Open interest clarification...

1. Rising prices and rising open interest is considered bullish.

2. Rising prices and falling open interest is considered a possible sign that the market is weakening.

3. Falling prices and rising open interest is considered bearish.

4. Falling prices and falling open interest is a possible sign that the market is strengthening.

Right now we have rising prices and rising open interest - bullish.

Larry

Larry,
When you say that open interest is increasing are you refering to "changes from 6/10/03 change in open interest 79,864"? Or are you looking for the change in open interest under the long or short commercials?

Thanks

Layne,

The increase in open interest in general, but particularly on the part on the commercials. It's not so much just the increase this week over last week, but the inrease this week on top of the fact that open interest has been trending higher for a few weeks now that I noticed. I haven't checked my records to say for sure, but I believe the current open interest level of 798,781 may be a record.

Generally speaking, increasing open interest along with rising prices is bullish for a futures market, just like increasing volume along with rising prices is bullish for the stock market.

It's not going to change anything that I'm doing, but it did get my attention.

Larry

Larry,

I'm not catching something here. 798,781 is the open interest, but the commercials add up to 1,021,328.
Are the commercial numbers:
(1) the numbers that were transacted last week,
(2) the positions that the commercials hold, or
(3) something totally different?

David

David,

Open interest is the total of all futures contracts entered into and not yet offset by a transaction, or by delivery. The aggregate of all long open interest is equal to the aggregate of all short open interest.

So this week open interest is 798,781. If you add all the long positions of non-commercial traders (55,783), Spreading (21,071 – a spread is both a long and a short position), commercial traders (519,887), and nonreportable positions (202,040), it totals the open interest of 798,781 contracts.

Likewise, if you add all the short positions of non-commercial traders (92,241), spreading (21,071), commercial traders (501,441), and nonreportable positions (184,028), it totals the open interest of 798,781 contracts as well.

Larry