From “Rev” Shark of RealMoney.com…

“Here is an amazing statistic reported by Doug Kass on Street Insight. According to the Stock Traders Almanac, since 1981 the S&P 500 has been up on July 14 an incredible 90.5% of the time, which makes it the most frequently positive day of the year.
If we go back to 1953, it's up 73.5% of the time. That's exceeded only by Jan. 3, when it's been up 75.5% of the time.”

I have no idea what is special about July 14, but it’s interesting especially in light of the strength that we’re seeing so far this morning.

Larry

So I guess come Jan 2, 2004 I need to by a Jan 04 call hehe Today, depending the option buying july ofcourse) every $40 invested friday would be worth $65 today

A QQQ JULY 32C is what it was... but it seems that the market is falling towards closing... almost a 62% return

I think the July 14 thing is just one of those statistical coincidences. I sure wouldn’t trade on it. The January 3 tendency is another matter. There are some logical reasons why the market tends to be strong at the beginning of the year including the fact that investors tend to be flush with cash after end-of-the-year tax loss selling.

By the way Heath, is one of your smiley faces winking or is that my imagination?

Larry

No it is winking " ; )" with no space

Yeah, I thought you would say that... that is why there is a wink

Up today and taking the SPX over the highs of 1007 and 1015 but on lighter NYSE volume and closing below 1007 sets it up for a sell signal.

http://www.marketweb.com/commentary/ord0715.htm

Bob,

Thanks for the link. Tim Ord is a very good technician and I didn’t realize that his commentary was online. He has a good point about the volume on the possible reversal pattern for the SPX yesterday. The volume was less than what it was for the June 17 peak. Vic Sperandeo makes a similar comment about volume with 2B patterns. He says that “after the new high is made, the failure to carry through usually occurs on low to normal volume, and the confirmation of reversal occurs on higher volume.”

He identifies a “rising wedge “ pattern for the Nasdaq that I hadn’t noticed before. According to my trusty ‘ole “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns” shorting a rising wedge pattern has only a 6% failure rate (or a 94% success rate) if you wait for the downside breakout, which appears to me right now to be a close below Friday’s low of about 1720. The encyclopedia says that the most likely decline is 15%.

Also, I like his observation about DROOY. I am adding it to my list of gold stocks to follow and maybe buy.

He does good work. I’m looking forward to reading his comments every Tuesday. Thanks again.

Larry

Tim Ord and Tom O'brien can be heard live either at http://www.tiger1590.com or http://www.tfnn.com. Not sure why Tim like Drooy so much - I consider it a dog. Tom O'brien doesn't own it and I believe it could see some more downside. I think there are better choices.

as for Tim Ord I try to catch him by archives at tfnn.com along with Tom and have been trying to build some notes on his very excellent volume analysis. Volume at swing highs and lows is critical and it has made a world of difference in knowing how to trade.

They're the best in my book. But I stopped by here as a recommendation for COT as I don't know much about it. As for Gold I see the COT report showing commercials still building long positions.

Hi Larry,

Where can one find a copy of the ole "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns". I'm reading Stan Weinstein's Secrets.. now and have a few more books on the way from Amazon.

Thanks.
Jacques

Jacques,

The one I have is called "The Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by Thomas N. Bulkowski. It was written in 2000. He has another one that he wrote a couple of years after that called, "Trading Classic Chart Patterns." They are available on Amazon.

I use it as a reference book. So when someone comments on a "rising wedge" or whatever, I look it up in the encylopedia to see how reliable the pattern is. Or in looking through my charts if I recognize a pattern, I'll look it up in the encyclopedia to see if I might have found an edge.

Larry