Larry,
I ran the data on the S&P using the 51%-49% method you developed. I can't seem to get the same results. I come up with 36 trades (31 winners, 5 losers). It appears there are 2 trades going short on 12/15/95 commercials 51% short and 2/27/96 51% short that keep the largest winning trade down to about 90% instead of 124% as in the SMR #12. On a $10,000 account I come up with a little over $175,000 instead of $228,000, not including taxes. Is there some other criteria that I'm missing other than just switch if the commercials are biased by 1% or more.

Thanks,
Fred

I see my mistake now. You are combining the buy weakness-sell strength with the 51%-49% method. I'll run the numbers again.

As Homer would say,
Doah