Hi Larry,

I fully recognize that we do not have the kind of long track record on the DOW or NASDAQ CoT reports like we do on the "proven" SP500 CoT.

That as a given, I can't help but notice how the DOW keeps going longer as the SPX goes shorter.

I almost can't help but wonder if this isn't exactly what is happening. That the Commercials are backing away from the general market (SPX) as well as the techs (NASDAQ), and putting their money into the Blue Chips (DOW).

Does this make any sense?

And if it does, would this indicate that the overall market will NOT tend to go down that much as the Blue Chips would be going up at the same time and counter that effect?

If so that might explain in part why the overall market has been channeling fairly flat for about three months now.

Am I mixing apples with pears here, or do we simply not have enough information to draw such conclusions, or could this have some validity after all?

Here's the breakdown of all the COT reports for the commercial traders if anyone is interested.

S&P futures 47% Long $1.5 billion
E-Mini 55.7% Long $24.6 million
S&P midcap 400 50.7% Long $6.6 million
E-Mini 31.2% Long $1 million
Nasdaq 100 37.6% Long $8.5 million
E-Mini 61.6% Long $6.4 million
Dow 72.9% Long $.4 million
mini 52.6% Long $.2 million


I may not be reading the capitalization figures right. They may be X 10 or 100 but either way it's pretty obvious all the others combined only equal about 3% of the S&P futures. Personally I don't think I'm going to be concerned to much with any of the other reports.

Gary

Based on Friday’s close the math’s is

Contract size = S&P 500 INDEX X $250.00
= 993.06 * $250
= $248,265.


Net difference between longs/shorts 50,716 contracts
Net difference in US$ = contract size * number of contracts
= $248,265 * 50,716
=$12,591,007,740

Now I am not a stock market expert but that seems a really big number to me.

Regards
Andy

I think Gary and Andy made my point probably better than I could. I haven't checked Gary's actual figures for accuracy but his point is the important one - the big S&P futures contract dwarfs the other ones in terms of commercial participation. Enough said.

Larry