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Untitled

May 18 2004 at 5:41 AM
Howard 

 
This has bee reported as a quote from Robert McHugh, Ph.D. From April 19 to May 3 there is an increase from 9,065B to 9169B accoring to the Fed Website. That's a two week increase of 1.1% which if you multiply it by 26 really is 29.8%. Larry, would you comment?
h

"The Federal Reserve has announced that they expect a stock market crash any day now. You missed that, you say? Didn’t hear that report on any of the usual media outlets? Think news that huge should have been headline on every newspaper this week? Well, it wasn’t reported. So I’m reporting it here.

Oh, they didn’t "speak" the words, no sage quote from a Fed governor or the venerable Chairman, but their actions did the talking. If you go to the Fed’s website, you’ll see that they reported M-3 is up an astounding $104.8 billion in just the past two weeks! That computes to 30% annualized growth in the money supply! That’s not a typo. Thirty percent per year, a $2.72 trillion increase to our current 9.1 trillion M-3 supply. The Fed was chartered to "maintain a stable currency." Yet here we see them inflating the value of our currency by 30 percent. Why? Have they gone loony? What is going on? The answer can only be one thing: The Federal Reserve has come to the conclusion that equities are at grave threat at crash proportions---and soon. The Fed is convicted that deflation in assets is so probable, that it is worth the risk to manufacture money at a thirty percent annualized clip. Hyperinflation by the US Central Bank, right before our very eyes. What’s next, Dubya declaring martial law? Did you ever think you’d see this?

How does the Fed manufacture money? It buys bond, Treasuries, with printed (actually electronic) currency that is paid to investment banking houses who deposit the money in commercial banks where these deposits are included in the count of M-3. This also has the effect of artificially keeping interest rates low. Question is, are they buying short-term or long-term Treasuries? My guess is both."


 
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Howard

I forgot

May 18 2004, 5:49 AM 

Larry,
I forgot to add that since 2/9 when M3 was 8904B there is an annualized increase of 12.75% to May 3rd.
h

 
 

Re: Untitled

May 18 2004, 7:53 AM 

Howard,

I think what McHugh is saying about the Fed is basically right. He’s frothing at the mouth a little too much for my taste, but I think it’s correct that the Fed realizes that it has created bubbles all over the place and it is expanding the money supply at a very high rate in order to try to keep everything afloat. I think they showed a lack of courage by waiting so long to raise rates and now it may be too late to prevent a high rate of inflation in the price of goods and services. The result may be a deflation in the price of financial assets.

I’m never comfortable with the word “crash.” I think a very good way to lose money is to try to anticipate a market crash. After all, depending on how you want to define a crash, there has only been one in my life time – 1987. And there has only been one other in the last 100 years – 1929. I’m short the stock market anyway because of the COT. So if a crash happens, I’ll make money. But I certainly wouldn’t ever invest my money in anticipation of one. A lot of these guys have called for so many crashes they’re eventually going to get one right.

Larry

 
 
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