Is the following link the one used to check the 1-2-3 signal?

http://www.iitm.com/safe-strategies/1-2-3-model-update.pdf

Dave

Dave,

I'm not familiar with that link, but it sure looks like what's in the book.

Larry

I was just looking for a place to check Tharp's 1-2-3 signals. I was thinking he would have a web page wehere things are summarized. I'm hoping the link above gets updated on a regular basis.

Dave

Dave,

Hopefully it will be updated. But it's very simple to do it yourself. You can look at a chart with a 45 week simple moving average. You'll know when the Fed starts raising rates. And it's easy to find the market p/e and dividend yield. But you won't have to worry about the last one because it will be a long time before the market is undervalued.

Larry

Try this link:

http://www.iitm.com/Weekly_update/market-update-may-2004.htm


Peter

With regards to the interest rates - at what point would the rates be considered "getting in the way" - even if the Fed raises interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points, we will would be at historically low levels. At what point would this change into a red light?

Kevin,

In terms of the Fed raising rates everybody’s trying to figure out how much is too much, how much is not enough, and how the market may react to all scenarios. So the bottom line is that nobody knows.

In the next SMR I’m going to show how the market reacted to rate hikes in the 90’s (1994 and 1999). Basically what happened was that the market went down within a few weeks after the Fed started raising rates even though it was widely expected and even though higher rates were supposed to already be priced in. The S&P declined about 10% in 1994 and about 7% in 1999. But once the market adjusted to the reality of higher rates, it did just fine. Of course we were in a primary bull market in the 90’s. I don’t think we are now.

Larry

Just received June's newsletter from Van Tharp.

1-2-3 Model Shifts To Red Light Mode.

He will probably post soon.

If you want a copy email me.

Peter

i just got van's e-letter too.
at the end of the article he said the following:

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For July 2004 our big picture suggests that the stock market is a very weak place to be. Be very careful. We still expect a long term, inflationary BEAR market.

-Van Tharp
=============================

he also said, in so many words, the US dollar is weak. (good for gold?)

-ja