S&P COT results...

commercial long: 402,952
commercial short: 416,526
net short: 13,574
% long: 49%

All COT strategies remain short.

Larry

Larry,
I was going over the COT and I noticed that even though the commercials are long by a small amount in the Nasdaq 100 futures they are massively short the e-minis and also in the S&P e-minis. The little guys are very heavy on the long side in each. Would you mind explaining again the difference between the regular and e-minis.

Gary

Gary,

The difference is in size. The big S&P contract is 250 times the S&P index. So with the S&P at 1112.81, the big contract is valued at $278,202.

The E-mini is 50 times the S&P. So it is valued at $55,640. The E-Mini was created for the small trader who couldn’t handle the margin requirements or the volatility associated with trading the big contract. But the commercials participate as well. As long as the little guy wants to trade, the big guys are perfectly willing to take the other side.

Larry

of course i've been short SPY ever since our COT strategy flipped - and i've been riding it out. i'd say that now (finally) things are starting to look good i.e. "bad"

many of my "fundamentally superior" stocks on my watch list are starting to come down hard and fast, crossing below their 50 DMA on big volume. that's always been a sign for me that the overall market is about to roll-over.

ibd's market view is turing bearish - and the SPY's ADX line is starting to creep UP as the price drops (adx measures a trend's strenght). also, SPY's daily p&f chart is bearish.

even if i DIDN'T have the COT i'd be bearish now.

we'll see how it plays out.

-ja