looks like shorting the t-bonds was a good call! take a look on bigcharts or stockcharts at TLT!

-ja

Joe,

If we have indeed caught a triple top in bonds -- still a big "if" -- the bond market could be sliding for a long time to come. Interest rates, once they get moving one way or the other, can really trend well.

Larry

larry,

what effect does a falling dollar have on long t-bonds?

-ja

Joe,

It could serve to cause foreign holders of U.S. bonds -- especially Japan and China -- to get tired of buying them since they are denominated in dollars. In other words, a falling dollar makes our securities less attractive to foreign investors.

Larry

larry,

you feeling better about TLT being a top?

-ja

Not that I know anything, but I'll throw my two cents in. On my chart TLT is still above (but not by much) it's downgoing trend line and a bit oversold. I'm watching to see if the line becomes support because I'm figuring that if it is breaking down, it will have a long way to go and I'll have time.
I'm looking forward to seeing what Larry thinks.
h

I think it probably has put in a top. There has been a lot of technical damage since it reached a triple peak and I think there is a lot of supply above the market. There is probably some support at 85 and it is oversold. But I think interest rates are going higher. Who knows? Rates trended down for 20 years. Maybe they'll trend up for another 20.

Larry