Long: 456,545
Short: 494,499

48%

A big reduction in short positions this week. Maybe we'll get that bounce next week Also commercial traders have flipped to short on oil. I wouldn't mind another opportunity to buy some more oil stocks either.

Gary

Gary,

What bounce are referring to when you said "that" bounce?

Steve

I guess the one all of us who are trading the VTO and the Bollinger Band crash systems would like to see. Just a bounce though not a rally

Gary

this message for January 28 says that week saw a big
reduction in short positions. Then, as it happened, the market had a 60 point upswing over the next 5 weeks.
What were the short positions in January 21? Also, are you folks counting big S&P only or the combination of big and mini S&P?

as of 4/5/5, we have the commercials net short
the big S&P by 8085
and they are short the mini by 175,056.

to combine them, I assume we times their position in
the big S&P by five and add.
40,425
and
175,056
yields
215,481

they are short the equivalent of 215,481 minis, so their position in $ is short $10,774,050.

I am new to your board, but I assume that I am calculating in the way you would be. Currently commercials are short
by almost $11 million; how were they at the beginning and end of January, if I may ask?

Also, being short $11 million, is that 10 times the amount they were short during the 2000 bear? Or, have I misunderstood something?

David,

“What were the short positions in January 21?”

The commercial net short position was 55,506 contracts

“Also, are you folks counting big S&P only or the combination of big and mini S&P?”

Just the big contract. That’s the one on which we have a 19 year history. And that’s the one the big commercial players are more likely to use.

“Currently commercials are short
by almost $11 million; how were they at the beginning and end of January, if I may ask?”

Net short 49,781 contracts at the beginning of January and net short 37,954 contracts at the end of January (big contract only).

“Also, being short $11 million, is that 10 times the amount they were short during the 2000 bear? Or, have I misunderstood something?”

In May of 2000, when they flipped to net short for the next three years, they were net short 12,893 contracts. By the end of 2000, they were net short 85,776 contracts. A contract is 250 times the S&P 500 index.

Larry

well, the commercials are short 8085 as of
4/5/5, which is obviously much less than
the 50some thousand in January or the 37,000 around
January 28. With the commercials short only 8085,
are we then expecting a signal to go long?

David,

I have no idea if and when they will go long. Often they’ll get close to even only to get more net short again. There’s no rhyme or reason to it.

Larry