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UPS

June 13 2005 at 9:40 AM
 

 
There's a big difference in the charts and the actual buys on a good number of the stocks I've tried with the BB. I bought UPS on Open Fri and sold on open today. Since Friday's open was 70.21 and it opened today 70.80 you'd think I had a good day. In fact I got UPS at 70.95. Now I used Schwab for this trade but the same thing has happened at Brown Co.
This has happened on about 3 I think so far so that the wins that are posted on Larry's site are actually losses for me.
Anyone have a similar experience? If we list them all we might get a better idea of how this works in real life.
h

 
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UPS

June 13 2005, 9:55 AM 

Just wanted to add my other two:
GNTX opened at 17.32; my fill was 17.44
MERQ opened at 43.50; my fill was 43.54

But I've only traded less than half the stocks on the list because I don't have a big account so if you have other examples please tell us.

BTW just got off the phone with Schwab and their answer was that a few months ago the NYSE changed how it sets opening prices and it works like options now where there are rounds of price setting before opening. 70.21 was where the "rounds" decided the openeing would be but there were no trades at that price.
h

 
 
Jim

Re: UPS

June 13 2005, 10:10 AM 

Howard,
I am having the same problems you are. My original concern was that most of the winners with the Bollinger Band system are small and a few large losses can dramatically reduce results. I haven't actually tested it but I suspect thats why results last year were small. A low volatility market, small profits and a few big losers. My thought is to either add a filter to improve winning percentage or find a way to achieve larger wins. With that thought in mind, my first attempt at improvement I posted under the mean regression thread. Maybe you wouldn't mind taking a look and see if you come up with the same results.
I'm sure Larry will come up with a better idea(s) or maybe the system is just fine the way it is and doesn't need tweaking and I'm wasting my time

Jim

 
 

UPS

June 13 2005, 10:54 AM 

Jim,
That's why I liked UPS. I closed below the BB with an empty red candle. That makes sense to me that it's oversold but has support and we would hope the momentum would continue up. I have to trade on opening because I'm not available on close so that one didn't work out for me.
h

 
 

Re: UPS

June 13 2005, 1:20 PM 

If you're having trouble with fills that are different than the open (I've had a few myself) there are several things you can do. You can buy before the market opens. You can wait until it opens and put in a limit price based on the open (you'll miss a few, but not many). Or you can just accept it as slippage. What I wouldn't do is try to experiment with different brokers. Believe me, if you're getting it from Brown you'll get it from anybody.

Larry

 
 
Howard

slippage

June 13 2005, 1:33 PM 

I think I have to accept it as slippage. I'm trying this system in two accounts and I think I've just had the bad luck of the draw in one (BCR, BDX, BSX, SPG, LEG) and a 7% increase in the other. UPS was just real upsetting because it looked on the chart like I should have made a nice profit. I checked the open and liked what I saw. Then I checked the fill and my hopes faded. Just a moment of lost equanimity. I'll have it back soon. I don't need it right now - isn't that what mechanical trading is for?
h

 
 
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