I’ve been reading Barron’s my entire career. And I always look forward to their annual survey of sell-side analysts (analysts that work for brokerage firms and their research is available to the public) to see what their predictions are for the next year. A better contrary indicator you will not find.

I’m going to expand on this in more detail in the next SMR, but just for right now I can tell you that they are overwhelmingly bullish on the stock market, with some of them predicting an S&P price of as much as 1400 for 2006.

As far as sectors are concerned, of the 12 analysts surveyed their favorite sectors by far are technology and health care. Only 2 of the 12 mentioned energy as a favorite sector. They think that oil has seen its high. And, of course, not one of them listed gold and silver mining.

So if you think that commodity oriented stocks have become too popular, think again. Brokers are going to be pushing technology and health care and de-emphasizing energy. And gold and silver? Well, everybody knows that those stocks are just for those crazy “gold bugs.”

By the way, it’s very early on Monday morning, and gold is up another $11 and silver up another 16 cents.

Larry

Larry,
This week a friend who knows my feelings about gold told me that I'm finally seeing the gold move I've been waiting for and he's glad because now I can sell for a profit and buy the Q's so I can make some real money in 2006.
In case anyone cares, I've been watching monthly P and F charts for some time and $9.00 gives Silver a double top breakout.
Another thing I've noticed is that for a long time now the P and F chart for copper has said to stay away because it's just too darn high. I've watched it climb over $2 while the chart kept flashing red. If you weigh pre-zinc pennies there are 143 per pound and that pound is now selling for $2.05.
Those are just some idiosyncratic metals thoughts,
h

Here's another contrary indicator. Has anyone noticed that Cramer seems to get extremely bullish on a sector right about the same time that its topping and really bearish when it's bottoming. He's very bullish on tech at the moment. A couple of weeks ago I seem to remember him calling for $40-$45 oil.

Gary