Larry,
Since you aren't going to use ROC for gold companies, how can we compare them?
Thanks,
h

Howard,

I primarily do it on a technical basis. I just look at the overall portfolio. I consider what I think about the intermediate direction of the gold and silver markets. And if I think the portfolio could use some gold and silver stocks, I buy the ones that give PSAR buy signals.

So right now we’re long PAAS at 14.69, SSRI at 11.90, NEM at 39.19, SIL at 14.77, HMY at 10.05, PDG at 17.26, NG at 7.95, GG at 19.54, GFI at 15.49, and WTZ at 9.45.

I think that’s enough for right now.

Larry

I'd like to set a little aside for some juniors, any thoughts?
h

Howard,

My thoughts are that juniors are a completely different animal. You have to know a lot about the company and you have to trust management. Some of them will be 10-baggers and a lot of them will go completely broke. If I ever decide to get into juniors I’ll learn how to analyze them. But, as of now, my focus is elsewhere.

If I wanted to get into juniors I guess I would start with Puplava’s site (financialsense.com) and go from there. Also, Bob Moriarty at 321gold.com writes about them quite often. He actually visits the companies, which I think when it comes to the juniors is wise.

Larry

Howard,
The average decline for gold after a intermediate top takes roughly 2 months. So far every decline from a top has taken gold back to at least the 200 DMA. Since it would be a little difficult to visit individual companies. Maybe watching the action of a group of juniors during the decline and picking only the ones that have held up relatively well compared to the others when you get a bullish signal from the COT and gold is near or at the 200 DMA.

Just a tho't
Gary

Larry and Gary,
You both are saying things I thought of. I know it's a large unknown risk and that some of these will go to zero. I was thinking of the very technical picture Gary was talking about. I was going to measure the retracement of the gold stocks in general and then compare the retracement in the juniors with that.
What I was thinking was buying $1000 worth of 10 juniors with some kind of screen. The technical one above and I was also going to use market cap/ounces in the ground as a proxy for value.
Any way I was thinking of letting these ten ride and not touching them for a long time. Some will go to zero and some will be ten baggers. Sort of building my own mutual fund. Anyway that's what I had in mind,
h

Howard,
Sounds like a good plan, I think I'll join you. Although I'm not sure I'll buy 10 juniors.

Gary