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How long super-power: USA?

February 15 2005 at 2:53 PM
  (Login Free_Nation)

Every super power comes to a demise. It happened with the Greeks, Romans, British and it will happen with the Americans.

USA takes pride in being called the sole super-power, but it realises that its enviable status is coming to an end becoz of the rapid growth of Chinese and Indian economy plus the Russians are recovering faster than expected. This is evident in US becoming more n more nervous, attack on Afghanistan, attack on Iraq and possible attacks on NK n Iran.

Iraq, Afghanistan and possibly Iran are/will be targets for securing US energy and geo-strategic needs. NK is target for the latters crackpot mentality and its close vicinity to Russia n China- big headaches for US.

India, a former beggar country dependent on world aid to feed its people, is now becoming a economic powerhouse. Its not a economic powerhouse vis-a-vis Japan, France, US but its is steadily getting there and should achieve the target in 15-20 years. It is the 4th largest military in the world with increasing modernisation and also a nuclear power. In other words, a future strategic challenge lies from India.

But China and Russia are current headaches, not to mention the external debt of US and its economic reccession. So i ask you guys, for how long can USA hold on to its "SOLE" super power status, ie if it remains a super power at all.

 
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(Login palo34)
Eagle Squadron (US)

Re: How long super-power: USA?

February 15 2005, 7:33 PM 

I don't see the day, US will not be ahead of everyone else in terms of military power and projection.
Economically, and politically, there will be countries more powerful, and China seems to be the country that has the most potencial. EU is not capable of excerting the same kind of influences as China will be able to, at the current rate of economic growth.

 
 
Commodore
(Login we_are_the_best)
The Redcoats (UK)

Re: How long super-power: USA?

February 15 2005, 8:24 PM 

Although there is no way the US can maintain its position as the hegemonic super power more and more countries will join the league. In terms of Economic superpower the USA is already closely followed by the EU and China and India are growing at phenomenal rates which would soon eclipse both the US and EU. Then we have other countries such as Brazil. Russia and Indonesia who will probably be the next 'tiger economies'.

The USA will maintain its position as the dominant military power. It has vast capabilities and infrastructures and their technology is already decades ahead of the EU's and is a hell of a lot more advanced than China and India's military. The biggest problem the USA has is an overburdened and almost bursting military-coupled with GW Bush's fiscal policy (or lack of it:)!)-probably pose a greater threat to US power than bin Laden!






We'll keep a welcome in the hillsides-just not for the English rugby team!

 
 


(Login meemperor)
Elite WAFF Vet Club

Re: How long super-power: USA?

February 16 2005, 1:17 AM 

"with GW Bush's fiscal policy (or lack of it:)!)-probably pose a greater threat to US power than bin Laden!"


That's the most ignorant staement I've ever heard. Learn something about economics before you type diarrhea like that again.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"deeds, not words"

 
 

(Login Devin172)
Eagle Squadron (US)

Re: How long super-power: USA?

February 16 2005, 1:25 AM 

"USA takes pride in being called the sole super-power, but it realises that its enviable status is coming to an end becoz of the rapid growth of Chinese and Indian economy plus the Russians are recovering faster than expected. This is evident in US becoming more n more nervous, attack on Afghanistan, attack on Iraq and possible attacks on NK n Iran."


Actually the attacks on Afghanistan & Iraq don't prove your point and are better explained by other factors. Don't twist facts...that's dishonest.

As it is, the US is likely to remain a super-power, if not the only one, for the forseeable future. Furthermore, as a REGIONAL Hegemon (the U.S. is only a weak global Hegemon...and the only one to have ever existed) the U.S. is probably going to retain its superpower status (huge resource & market base).

And while the current operations are taxing the U.S. military they are gaining something that few western nations have (especially China...whose training exercises are heavily scripted and unrealistic)...combat experience & a chance to practically incorporate new technology at all combat levels.

 
 

Xiao Long
(Login raven5758)
Middle Kingdom (China)

Re: How long super-power: USA?

February 16 2005, 1:27 AM 

The USA will maintain its position as the dominant military power. It has vast capabilities and infrastructures and their technology is already decades ahead of the EU's and is a hell of a lot more advanced than China and India's military. The biggest problem the USA has is an overburdened and almost bursting military-coupled with GW Bush's fiscal policy (or lack of it:)!)-probably pose a greater threat to US power than bin Laden!

---> Yes for a while US will maintain its military position but military power needs to be backup by a vibrant economy. The reason why US has the best technology is because the best and brightest in the world work and migrate in the US. what if US is no longer attractive for investment and immigration? The US education has been deteriorating specially in the engineering sector everybody wants to be a lawyer now =)

"When China awakes, the world will tremble." -- Napoleon

 
 

(Login Free_Nation)

USA as a extinct power

February 16 2005, 8:00 AM 

@Commodore:

The USA is a military power, very true. Then why does the US have to think 10 times before attacking a country like Iran, why so much casualties in Iraq? Answer is USA is the best-period- in force projection, no other country comes as close; USSR was the last. But having said that, Russia, China and even India are strong "defensive" militaries. They may not be able to take their army to US shores but they certainly can stand up to US attacks.

But in coming few years, say 15-20, things are going to change dramatically. China is already on the way to acquire a SSBN, read second strike capability. Every other weekend you will hear the Indian admiral talking of the urgent need of nuclear subs for a second strike. But India is still a newcomer vis-a-vis US and its capabilities so lets keep India out. Russia only lost its force projection capability, it still has its power.

So you see here Comm. things not looking so bright for US. The worst thing here is US economy is contracting at best n receeding at worst.

@Devin T:

I understand your displeasure in my blunt comment but its true. Afghanistan is a potential gas reserve and Iraq is a oil treasure. Afghanistan may have been a legitimate target for Taliban and importantly Bin Laden. But why Iraq? Bush said that Saddam had WMD. UN finds no "smoking gun" there and now the Bush Govt. says it doesnt matter about the WMD, we got Saddam (or, we got OIL).

The US troops refused to budge when there was complete lawlessness and Saddam's palaces were robbed immediately after his fall. But they kept a eagle eye on the Oil stations. Whos getting the pie of construction projects, USA. The current state of US economy is what it is making them so desperate, they also realise that their vice like grip on the world is loosing. Hence all possible measures to prevent it.

The Bush Govt. refused to rule out armed solution for Iran. So dont be surprised if in 3-4 years time you see US marines fighting in Iran.

 
 

(Login Free_Nation)

USA as a extinct power

February 16 2005, 8:01 AM 

~deleted, double post.~

 
 

(Login Devin172)
Eagle Squadron (US)

Re: How long super-power: USA?

February 16 2005, 11:03 AM 

"I understand your displeasure in my blunt comment but its true. Afghanistan is a potential gas reserve and Iraq is a oil treasure. Afghanistan may have been a legitimate target for Taliban and importantly Bin Laden. But why Iraq? Bush said that Saddam had WMD. UN finds no "smoking gun" there and now the Bush Govt. says it doesnt matter about the WMD, we got Saddam (or, we got OIL).

The US troops refused to budge when there was complete lawlessness and Saddam's palaces were robbed immediately after his fall. But they kept a eagle eye on the Oil stations. Whos getting the pie of construction projects, USA. The current state of US economy is what it is making them so desperate, they also realise that their vice like grip on the world is loosing. Hence all possible measures to prevent it."



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I think you are confusing the actions of a healthy hegemon with those of an ailing hegemon. The United States is already an established regional hegemon whose authority is sacrosanct in North America & very powerful in South America. Iraq & Afghanistan and the attempts to remake their governments in our own image (even attempting to erect client states) is a completely different matter. What it reveals is the intent to extend America's authority into completely new regions...increasing it from a vague distant power to a far more palpable one. Securing new resources, topling unfriendly governments, establishing new institutions...these are the acts of a hegemon with a powerful global reach that is wielding its power. No global hegemon truly exists at the moment...yet the United States can come close...and what you are seeing is the manifestation of its power.

Furthermore, your attempt to create a causal link between the state of the American economy and its actions in the Middle East does not hold water. After all, the economy is hardly faltering...it is fairly solid atm...and it is no where near the woes of the 1970's and 1980's. Even during the Cold War America did not hesitate to topple governments. If the economy was a sign of a failing superpower then why did America persist after the USSR fell? Why didn't America fall after replacing so many governments?

Securing vital resources, extending authority into a strategicly important region, translating the Middle East from the peripherary of America's reach to a core sector, hell...even attempting to remake a region that has plagued American foreign policy and now domestic security by eliminating core social & political elements that allow them to thrive...all of those are likely reasons for America's actions in Iraq. The fact that America is acting & doing so cappably...that its military is handling the situation well...and that the action is thus far within the capability of the volunteer military (volunteer is key mind you...Rome fell due to a reliance on mercenaries after all) speaks well of its powers as a nation and a hegemon.

If America did not move to secure resources and regions vital to its national security or economy then an argument could be made. If it failed to do these things. If it's authority as a regional hegemon was threatened...any of these indicate an ailing superpower (such as Afghanistan...a nation well within the Soviet sphere...which they were unable to control).

 
 
Commodore
(Login we_are_the_best)
The Redcoats (UK)

Re: How long super-power: USA?

February 16 2005, 11:39 AM 

@Meemperor

"That's the most ignorant staement I've ever heard. Learn something about economics before you type diarrhea like that again."

Your right it was an ignorant statement and I was probably being a bit over the top but Bush is doing a hell of a lot of damage to the US economy and the USA in general. Lyndon Johnson tried to maintain a war (vietnam), lower taxes and create "the Great Society" but failed. Most of the Republicans who are at the top aren't as fiscally responsible as the traditional Republicans.




Welcome to Wales!

 
 
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