Rise of the BRICs - - Brazil, Russia, India, China - - Chinese economy larger than the three others combined
By Finfacts Team
Jun 8, 2009 - 3:58:03 AM
Deutsche Bank Research says the rise of the BRICs thesis has received much criticism some of it deserved, some of it undeserved. There is little doubt that major change is afoot, but the thesis is somewhat misleading, even deceiving, as it discounts what will be the most momentous development of the first half of the 21st century: the rise of the Chinese economy.
Economist Markus Jaeger says naturally, the growing economic importance of India, Brazil and Russia will have important consequences, but these simply dont compare to the implications of Chinas rise. Economically, financially and politically, China overshadows and will continue to overshadow the other BRICs. Chinas economy is larger than that of the three other BRICs combined. Both Chinas exports and its official FX reserve holdings are more than twice as large as those of the other BRICs combined.
Jaeger says China is the real story here! In Washington DC, for example, there is much talk these days about Chinese exchange rate policy and Chinas rapidly increasing financial prowess, about increasing Chinese military and especially naval capabilities, even about Chinese soft power. Prominent analysts and former government officials, like Bergsten and Brzezinski, are calling for the establishment of a G-2 consisting of the United States and China. While the proposal has thus far received at best a cautious response in both Beijing and Washington and a generally sceptical response from analysts, it is a reflection of the importance Washington insiders attach to Chinas growing stature. He says one may legitimately disagree with the G-2 proposal, but Chinas increasing economic and political weight in world affairs is a reality.
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Jaeger says none of this is meant to suggest that the rise of the BRICs is not a significant development. It is, but it pales by comparison with the rise of China. China is the 800-pound panda in the room. China will become the worlds largest economy, and a high degree of economic integration will force Beijing to become more involved in managing global economic and financial affairs. The G-2 proposal overestimates Beijings and Washingtons ability to jointly manage world affairs by discounting the growing importance of the other BRICs and the continued relevance of the EU and Japan. However, at the very least, the proposal is an implicit, even explicit recognition that Chinas rise is significantly more important than the rise of the other BRICs and that the world must try to find a way to accommodate Chinas growing importance by offering it co-equal stakeholdership.
I feed my blonde lots of char sue.
This message has been edited by BigFatPandaBear on Jun 9, 2009 6:08 AM
Re: Rise of BRIC? Actually it's more about the Rise of China
June 11 2009, 4:56 AM
BRIC is a silly concept, the whole thing is based on GDP estimates that span 4-5 decades. The growth of each country is virtually independent of each other and the problems facing each are completely different. Although I doubt those numbers, lets pretend that they are real. It still leaves 1.3 billion people with a per capita of a 3rd world nation. The chicoms here can try to ignore all the problems that face their "homeland", but it wont make them go away.
Total of BRI 3,617.88"
Wow... congratulations Brazil and Russia combined have only 330 million people to China's 1.3 Billion. Even though India has over a billion it's very poor and brings the other two down. In terms of living standards and gdp per capita theirs also a bit of a margin between China and Russia and Brazil.