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NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 21 2013 at 8:53 PM
CrazyD600  (Login CrazyD600)
Middle Kingdom (China)


http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/19/india-is-losing-the-race/?ref=opinion

India Is Losing the Race

By STEVEN RATTNER

Steven Rattner on economic policy, finance and business.
As recently as 2006, when I first visited India and China, the economic race was on, with heavy bets being placed on which one would win the developing world sweepstakes.

Many Westerners fervently hoped that a democratic country would triumph economically over an autocratic regime.

Now the contest is emphatically over. China has lunged into the 21st century, while India is still lurching toward it.

Thats evident not just in columns of dry statistics but in the rhythm and sensibility of each country. While China often seems to eradicate its past as it single-mindedly constructs its future, India nibbles more judiciously at its complex history.

Visits to crowded Indian urban centers unleash sensory assaults: colorful dress and lilting chatter provide a backdrop to every manner of commerce, from small shops to peddlers to beggars. That makes for engaging tourism, but not the fastest economic development. In contrast to Chinas full-throated, monochromatic embrace of large-scale manufacturing, India more closely resembles a nation of shopkeepers.

To be sure, India has achieved enviable success in business services, like the glistening call centers in Bangalore and elsewhere. But in the global jousting for manufacturing jobs, India does not get its share.

Now, after years of rocketing growth, Chinas gross domestic product per capita of $9,146 is more than twice Indias. And its economy grew by 7.7 percent in 2012, while India expanded at a (hardly shabby) 5.3 percent rate.


The New York Times
Chinas investment rate of 48 percent of G.D.P. a key metric for development also exceeded Indias. At 36 percent, Indias number is robust, particularly in comparison with Western countries. But the impact of that spending can be hard to discern; on a recent 12-day visit to India, not many rupees appeared to have been lavished on Mumbais glorious Victoria Terminus, also known as Chhatrapati Shivaji Terminus, since it was constructed in the 1880s. Parts of Mumbais recently built financial district Bandra Kurla Complex already look aged, perhaps because of cheap construction or poor maintenance or both. Its hardly a serious competitor to Shanghais shiny Pudong.

China has 16 subway systems to Indias 5. As China builds a superhighway to Tibet, Indian drivers battle potholed roads that they share with every manner of vehicle and live animal. Indias electrical grid is still largely government controlled, which helped contribute to a disastrous blackout last summer that affected more than 600 million people.

Yet Morgan Stanley stands resolutely behind its 2010 prediction that India will be growing faster than China by the middle of this decade.

It isnt going to happen, Indias better demographics notwithstanding.

For one thing, many of Indias youths are unskilled and work as peddlers or not at all. For another, despite all the reforms instituted by India since its move away from socialism in 1991, much more would have to change. Corruption, inefficiency, restrictive trade practices and labor laws have to be addressed.

Democratic it may be, but Indias ability to govern is compromised by suffocating bureaucracy, regular arm-wrestling with states over prerogatives like taxation and deeply embedded property rights that make implementing China-scale development projects impossible. Unable to modernize its horribly congested cities, Indias population has remained more rural than Chinas, further depressing growth.

China and corruption may be almost synonymous to many, but India was ranked even worse in corruption in Transparency Internationals annual Corruption Perceptions Index. At its best, the Indian justice system a British legacy grinds exceptionally slowly.

To be sure, summary executions dont occur in India, and its legal system is more transparent and rule-based than Chinas. But a recent visit coincided with the tragic gang rape of a young Indian woman that led to her death; the governments ham-handed initial response was to ban protesters from assembling and impound vans with tinted windows like the one in which she was abducted.

Indias rigid social structure limits intergenerational economic mobility and fosters acceptance of vast wealth disparities. In Mumbai, where more than half the population lives in slums often devoid of electricity or running water, Mukesh Ambani spent a reported $1 billion to construct a 27-story home in a residential neighborhood.

Dont get me wrong I am hardly advocating totalitarian government. But we need to recognize that success for developing countries is about more than free elections.

While India may not have the same eye on the prize so evident in China, it should finish a respectable second in the developing world sweepstakes. It just wont beat China.


 
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AryanArya
(Login AryanArya)
Satyameva Jayate (India)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 22 2013, 3:18 AM 

Another India comparision article by the Chinese ? What is the purpose of such articles ?

There was no race to begin with but some commentators came up with these 'races' for their own reasons. Although because of large populations, the comparisions may be expected, we are actually comparing apples with oranges. India has its own pace based on its unique conditions.China has its own pace based on its unique conditions. The Chinese pace is faster than India's in recent decades and hence for people who are interested in 'races', India is "losing". But the fact is India did not 'stop' and it is also progressing, although not at China's pace.

But if one wants to use the 'race anology' (which i dont beleive in), then the correct race anology is marathon, not a sprint.


At the end of the article,

\\While India may not have the same eye on the prize so evident in China, it should finish a respectable second in the developing world sweepstakes. It just wont beat China.\\

This is consistent with history where for many centuries, China and India were top two economies respectively.But in between, they also traded places.Hence my pick of 'marathon race' anology as opposed to 'sprint race anology'.

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Krinvanto Vishwam Aryam
(Make this World Noble)

- Rigveda


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QQ007
(Login QQ007)
Middle Kingdom (China)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 22 2013, 8:53 AM 

Another India comparision article by the Chinese ? What is the purpose of such articles ?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
it's a comparision by American, chinese are too busy on making money, no one cares about india. and in china people call india "third brother", that means "third world brother".

 
 

AryanArya
(Login AryanArya)
Satyameva Jayate (India)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 22 2013, 3:39 PM 

^^

If the Americans are doing the comparision, then why are the chinese posting it in WAFF, if they really dont care about India ? If the chinese want to do comparision with India, then thats ok. But what i find hilarious is the chinese in WAFF say they dont care about India and yet they keep on proving that India is in their minds.

BTW, In India too, people refer to China as a fellow third world developing country. So the chinese consider themselves as first world country ?



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Krinvanto Vishwam Aryam
(Make this World Noble)

- Rigveda


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WAFFer
(Login oneman28)
WAFFer

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 22 2013, 8:19 PM 

Chinese gov and Chinese officials never mention India when we are talking about China's development or our plan. It was India and Indian officials who often compared India with China to promote itself. The famous one was India's PM MMS's boasting in 2004 that the world would only talk about Mumbai and forget Shanghai in 5 years. It was also MMS who often talks about "catching up with China". Can Indians find one of this kind of stupid claims from Chinese gov or Chinese officials? especially from high-rank officials like MMS?

India's clueless claims of course caught Chinese's attentions. We post this kind of articles for joking and make Indians to recoginize their own country more clearly and don't be dumb before the world.


    
This message has been edited by oneman28 on Jan 22, 2013 8:47 PM


 
 

AryanArya
(Login AryanArya)
Satyameva Jayate (India)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 22 2013, 10:18 PM 

\\It was also MMS who often talks about "catching up with China". Can Indians find one of this kind of stupid claims from Chinese gov or Chinese officials? \\

You are talking nonsense again ! China is ahead of India. India is behind China trying to catch up. In such a scenario, its quite natural that Indian leaders saying they want to catch up with China just like Chinese leaders would like to catch up with America.By their sayings,the Indian leaders are actually complimenting the Chinese for their economic acheivements which they want to emulate. It would be funny if Chinese leaders say they want to catch up with India which is behind them ! Have you ever seen Indian leaders saying they wanted to catch up with Pakistan ?


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\\We post this kind of articles for joking and make Indians to recoginize their own country more clearly and don't be dumb before the world \\

You can post, joke and masturbate on such articles as much as you want.But realise that you are making a fool of yourself if you say that you dont care about India on one hand and continue to post India related articles on other hand for whatever reason ! That only shows you are unable to take India out of your minds.


===========================================
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Krinvanto Vishwam Aryam
(Make this World Noble)

- Rigveda


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WAFFer
(Login Type98G)
Elite WAFF Vet Club

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 2:31 AM 

This news is telling what I already know, that India is a joke.

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WAFFer
(Login oneman28)
WAFFer

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 4:59 AM 

India of course WANTS to catch up with the ones ahead. But that's totally different to predict cluelessly that India WILL catch up with China in 5 years or 2 years. You don't understand the difference of the two? We call the latter one a joke.

 
 

AryanArya
(Login AryanArya)
Satyameva Jayate (India)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 5:01 AM 

@Type

"This news" did not say that !


On topic,

http://www.publicserviceeurope.com/article/2977/india-too-democratic-to-overtake-china-as-economic-superpower

India 'too democratic' to overtake China as economic superpower

22 January 2013
by Justin Stares

India cannot compete with China's 'efficient' system of corruption, a British academic told a conference in Brussels. PublicServiceEurope.com was there to document the debate

India is simply too democratic to take full advantage of its economic potential, a conference in Brussels heard this week. Gross domestic product growth will continue to lag behind that of China because India pays more attention to minorities and to the rule of law, according to Matthew McCartney - director of contemporary south Asian studies at Britain's Oxford University.

While both countries suffer from high levels of corruption, China's one party system has a "more efficient" business-friendly system for paying backhanders. In India, on the other hand, corruption is "unpredictable" and is seen as more of a tax on investment - McCartney said.

Talking at the 'India goes global' conference hosted by the Friends of Europe think-tank, the academic said China's no-nonsense, centralised state had been more successful at turning growth into poverty reduction. "China has been much better at controlling conflict and strikes," he said. Beijing has also imposed conditions on foreign investment, such as technology transfer agreements and joint ventures with local companies, unlike India.

"The strong centralised Communist Party has efficiently organised corruption," McCartney said. Large-scale infrastructure projects such as dams are simply forced through in China whereas the Indian government struggles to push past "populist, fragmented" interest groups. "For all developed countries, democracy and property rights have been a product of economic development - not a pre-condition," McCartney said.

India's strong democratic institutions were likely to be a "handicap" to future growth rather than a boost, he predicted. "Good democracies emerge as a consequence of development," he said. "If you look at the statistics you will see that it is difficult to find a link between democracy and growth." Rather than plough money into democracy in under-developed nations such as Afghanistan and Iraq, the international community would do better to investment in other areas - such as the education of girls, he suggested.

Historically speaking, countries that have experienced large leaps forward in economic terms have not been particularly democratic at the time - he pointed out. As an example he took the United Kingdom of the 1830s, when the industrial revolution was in full swing. At the time, only 1 per cent to 2 per cent of the population had the right to vote. His comments led a former official of the European External Action Service, the European Union's diplomatic corps, to wonder out loud if Europe was not "too democratic" to achieve its growth goals. Does the EU need a dictatorship to redress its downward spiral?

"I hate hearing democracy knocked," retorted Naina Lal Kidwai, president of the federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry. What was important was a "combination of democracy and leadership", she said. "What we have to knock is coalition governments not democracy per se."

Talking at the conference interval, McCartney told PublicServiceEurope.com that despite his presentation he was a "big fan of democracy". Governance by the people was however more likely to "stick" in countries that had achieved a certain level of per capita income, he said, citing statistical research going back more than 200 years. Countries can swing between democracy and dictatorship almost at random, he maintained. Democracies can be found in poor countries and rich countries, but they are more likely to be enduring in wealthy countries.

Playing devil's advocate, PublicServiceEurope.com asked McCartney if his "too much democracy" argument was not strikingly similar to that used by Adolf Hitler during his rise to power in the 1930s. There were simply too many political parties in Germany for its own good, Hitler said. "It is often the case that a small element of truth can be distorted by people for their own aims," McCartney replied.



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Krinvanto Vishwam Aryam
(Make this World Noble)

- Rigveda


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This message has been edited by AryanArya on Jan 23, 2013 5:04 AM


 
 
WAFFer
(Login oneman28)
WAFFer

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 5:10 AM 

China is ruled by a 80-milliom-member-plus-party from grassroots. From Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping, Hu Jingtao, all the real leaders of China came from ordinary Chinese families. Jiang Zeming came from a family of middle-ranked official.

India is owned by a family. Even a foreign woman can be the de fato leader of the country only because she married a member of family.


    
This message has been edited by oneman28 on Jan 23, 2013 5:11 AM


 
 

AryanArya
(Login AryanArya)
Satyameva Jayate (India)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 5:12 AM 

\\But that's totally different to predict cluelessly that India WILL catch up with China in 5 years or 2 years\\

Can you show me where Indian leaders predicted that India will catch up with China in GDP in 5 or 2 years. The prediction at the most was that India will catch up with China on growth rate in 5 or 2 years.Even that prediction initially came from non-Indian reputable economists and institutions.It may happen.It may not but thats the nature of predictions.In the 80s, Japan was predicted to dominate the world.It did not happen. Now its the turn of predicting China to dominate the world not just economically but also militarily.We dont know whether it will happen.We just have to wait and see.






===========================================
[linked image]

Krinvanto Vishwam Aryam
(Make this World Noble)

- Rigveda


-------------------------------------------
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AryanArya
(Login AryanArya)
Satyameva Jayate (India)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 5:28 AM 

\\China is ruled by a 80-milliom-member-plus-party from grassroots\\

Not true. That is only on the surface.Scratch beneath and you will see many princelings. Many of the recently selected rulers for the Communist Partys Standing Committee are descendents of former senior party leaders.Xi Jinping himself is a son of a former vice premier who was a protégé of Mao.

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\\India is owned by a family.\\

India is not "owned" by a family. The family only 'owns' a political party

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\\Even a foreign woman can be the de fato leader of the country only because she married a member of family.\\

What ever be the faults of it, does it not show the inclusiveness of Indian people for whom race and ethenicity are irrelevant but civilizational values are. Historically, India assimilated the "barbarians" by making them one of their own if they are ready to accept Indian civilizational values.

===========================================
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Krinvanto Vishwam Aryam
(Make this World Noble)

- Rigveda


-------------------------------------------
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Eryx
(Login Eric_De_La_Legion)
Elite WAFF Vet Club

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 6:04 AM 

I say let India goes at its own pace and not fall into the Chinese trap.

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De Gaulle to the General Koenig, Norman hero of Bir Hakeim: "Hear and tell your troops: the whole of France is watching you, you are our pride."[

 
 
CrazyD600
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Middle Kingdom (China)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 23 2013, 5:07 PM 


\\"I say let India goes at its own pace and not fall into the Chinese trap. "

I do hope Indian think this way too. lol


 
 
Sir LurkaLot
(Login w00tness)
Satyameva Jayate (India)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 24 2013, 11:45 AM 

^ LOL, why? India growing faster will hurt sales of the dimsum stall you have set up in the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA?

Silly immigrant chinaman living abroad and beating his chest screaming "CHINA STRONK"..GTFO.

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Tu hai nadee o bekhabar
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Dil khush jahan teri toh manzil hai wahin.

 
 
WAFFer
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Elite WAFF Vet Club

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 24 2013, 3:03 PM 

if india wanted to race and catch up to china she could.i however suspect that india doesnt want to lose her soul in the process.
the big investor types who have invested heavily in china like nothing better than a poor human rights backwater so as to maximise their returns.
so it seems that china sold her A'hole to get where she is today.
the human rights index,worker rights and safety index,environmental groups and others all point to the obvious.

but as someone earlier on in the thread suggested its a marathon and not a sprint and in the marathon india will win.
why you ask?
well im glad you asked.
1.china has more foes and cynics in the area like the majority of her neighbour wheras india only has pakistan and even then without china pakistan isnt worth a mention.
2.chinas population is stablizing and according to some sources acyually shrinking
3.chinese workers fed up with the exploitation and low wages are now demanding more for less.
4.china has made certain large bad investments abroad that i think will come back to haunt her.

they are just a few of my perceptions,in the long run i think india will be better off than china .if india can move forward and make alligences with chinas fearful neighbours then the combined market share will be to indias advantage.

 
 
CrazyD600
(Login CrazyD600)
Middle Kingdom (China)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 24 2013, 10:54 PM 

"
if India wanted... she could
in the long run, India will win
poor human right in china
no free speech in china
"

...blah ... blah ...

I thought I could see some Indian poster here can face up the fact they are left behind. but quite interesting, excuses after excuses, still India will/is about/is going to win according to Indian in this forum. I have to say India is such a miserable nation. Its culture is such cowardice and can only self-comfort itself.


    
This message has been edited by CrazyD600 on Jan 25, 2013 3:44 AM


 
 
Hawkssss
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Elite WAFF Vet Club

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 25 2013, 1:12 AM 

I am certain about one thing, india should NOT try to go the Greek way....lol

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WAFFer
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WAFFer

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 25 2013, 3:11 AM 

Since PRC was founded in 1949, China has beated india in development for more than 60 years although India inherited a lot from Brits' rule. More than 60 years is not long enough for proving something?

 
 
CrazyD600
(Login CrazyD600)
Middle Kingdom (China)

Re: NYTimes - India Is Losing the Race

January 25 2013, 3:44 AM 

no, the race is marathon instead of sprint according to Indian. 60 years is nothing in the long run. ^_^

 
 
 
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