...it's also totally dependent on how the questions are asked, who's asking them of who, etc. Look at today's numbers from various places:
• Wash Post/ABC News: Kerry 49, Bush 47 | 3-Way: Tied @ 46 | Bush Job Approval @ 47%
• USAT/CNN/Gallup: Kerry 49, Bush 47 | 3-Way: Kerry +1 ; Bush Job Approval @ 47%
• CBS News: Bush Job Approval @ 41% | Record 65% Say Country Headed in Wrong Direction
Considering the barrage of bad vibes the Prez has absorbed in the past few weeks, his opponent should be(and is) very worried. Kerry's not making any new friends, on the other side of the aisle. Bush is not losing his core support, among Republicans(see below).
A strong statement tonight, that lays out a coherent plan for the turnover of sovereignty to Iraq, will go a long way towards firming up his support. I see the four major networks won't be televising his speech, which shows how important they feel this story is at this point in time.