Hello everyone. Season's greetings.

I read Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning everyday. [1]. I also stay up to date with Lyndon Larouche. [2]. It appears from my reading of these two economists, that we're all in a load of trouble. The fundamental productive capacity of the US has been eaten away for the past 30 years and the pied piper is about to be paid-- despite the rosy DOW and real estate stats. I won't bother explaining why, here. Suffice it to say that I'm scared.

I'm really disappointed-- and miffed, quite frankly-- that the supernet revolution hasn't happened already. I hope we still have a chance but world political situations are so dicey now that we're all doomed if we don't solve some problems.

I started this forum because I brilliantly deduected that Ted Warren was onto something-- when I first found him. I originally wanted to bring together a group of like minds who thought about Ted in a similar way so that we could go to town researching stocks. I'm a very "impecunious", shall we say, individual. I have to watch my dimes. Still, regardless of one's impecuniousness, TW is useful. So I'm here. And I'm now asking for your concerted effort to create a fresh new start here in this forum.

I want to organize a band of leaders, chosen from visitors here, who will watch 3000 NYSE stocks and however many NASDAQ stocks-- and perhaps international stocks if we can-- to detect TW trading signals. Of course, we'd have to split up the work.

In other words, I want to run at TW now, with a more concerted and organized approach. Just think: Right now-- there are probably 10% or so of all stocks that are very good candidates for a TW-motivated purchase. The investolator covers a lot of them but again, I haven't been able to cover the back issues of the Investolator the way I first imagined I would. I need ALL the back issues. Somebody here has them. Who? And let's share. We're a small group who have used Ted Warren in the search engine to find this forum. Let's make something interesting happen here.

If you're "in", respond to this post with a roll-call type post and state which stocks your IN and which one's you're watching. I'll start.

And Happy New Year, 2002. Let's hope the economy DOES do some interesting positive things and not crash further. I don't want to see an invasion of Iraq, for example.

Portfolio: BTX
Watchlist: CNTY
Past Performers I sold out too early on: MAGS, IDYN

If you can think of other categories, list them. The objective here is to create a comprehensive list. Obviously, that's daunting. I know it. But we have to start somewhere.

Ultimately, I'd like to see a list that ranks all stocks in terms of their TW potential, from highest to lowest. What a piece of cake it would be simply to buy several at the top of the list and wait.

Why are there no mutual funds that are based strictly on TW selection methods? Two and half years later and I don't have an answer for that question. Can YOU answer it?

I'm sending you an email to rbpotvin@webtv.net

Dave

I'll try the yahoo screener. Thanks for the email and the pointers.

Why do you think that there isn't a mutual fund out there that describes itself as strictly TW?

AIRM
APFC
BLD

I like these 3 the best. I filter for cheap companies with very small PE's. I do this every few months if I feel like it, lol. Usually find about 300 stocks. I pare those down by looking at the last 4 years profits on MSN research wizard. Then I use that wizard to see what the companies that are left actually do. This whole process doesn't take more than an hour.

After all this, I actually look at the charts because by this time I probably don't have more than about 30 or 40 left. I've tried scanning TW forums for stocks but they don't suit me, seems everyone is hooked on stocks that don't and usually have never made a profit. Those are not for me. But, like BLD, if after I've bought, they start losing money, I just hold them, not taking a loss like TW said.

As to mutual funds, in that world, TW is not exactly the hero he is to us. These "managers" aren't interested in taking themselves from rags to riches, they want to be safe and make mgt fees. Cheap basing stocks with light volume aren't what the doctor ordered for their goals, plus if they are of any size at all, they would totally overrun these cheap stocks with light float. They need liquid, larger cap stocks so their buyin doesn't create a stir ... or they think they do

My opinion.

Dave

Say Rick,I believe that TW was hired to do his charting for a mutual fund co.All I know is that it ended up in a mess.Maybe the individual stocks moved in and out of the fund to quickly.

Stocks moved in and out of the fund too quickly for Ted Warren when he was hired, eh?

Or maybe the mutual fund management was actually controlled by people who are pulling the strings and found out what TW was up to-- exposing thier racket.

The very essence of a mutual fund is to spread the risk of losing money among many stocks that you think will make money. Now-- are we saying taht that is NOT the essence of a mutual fund? That the essense of a fund is to generate fees? Period?

The idea of a fund based on TW makes SENSE, though, doesn't it? Can you tell me that much? ...that based on the essence of what a mutual fund is supposed to be, choosing TW stocks certainly would be a good way to go about building a mutual fund, right?

Your only possible answer here, is "yes".

"The very essence of a mutual fund is to spread the risk of losing money among many stocks that you think will make money."

Really? I thought the essence of a mutual fund was to pool money to buy stocks (thereby lowering the barrier-to-entry for investors), and to benefit from full-time "professional" management. Not exactly sure where your definition came from.

A TW mutual fund might make VERY good sense to those investors that UNDERSTOOD TW's ideas, and had the required patience. Otherwise, low initial performance might cause many to bail, requiring the possible liquidation of yet-to-be-profitable positions and further lowering the returns.

Your only possible answer here is "yes".

To anyone that has a concern about these two guys that Rick is talking about,listen to them and you may as well get out of the markets.If we look back at history,our economy and the stock market has corrected has many times.Things just can't keep going up and up!If we are tuned in to the market and have done our homework we can still make the bucks from all our hard work and study.Volatility is the mode now and it even affects the TW type stocks.I personally have made some changes and its keeping up with the way the markets are today.I will continually do whatever I have to do in my trading to keep my % gains the same.For me the one I really listen to is what those charts are telling with the volatility that is attached.If we posted TW type charts like in US charts or MC horsey book there would be hundreds of charts posted
We are in the markets for taking profit and if I said it not so nicly it would be to prey on the weak.Thats what the weak and strong hands are.So, I personally do not put to much stock in what those two people that rick talks say, because they also prey on the weak.Ofcourse,these are just my humble opinions.Tony

Especially the part about adjusting my methods to fit today's market. You are aware of my current styles, but for every one else, i have condensed TW style to a day trading format. All those long time frame, monthly formations also appear in daily formations. I am not trying to discourage anyone from TW method in its purest form, only giving an example of a modification that works well in todays volatile, fast moving markets. It has been cited several times(mostly by Tony) that the market moves faster today than in TW's day. I even remember Ted saying that after closing out a position, there wasn't an entry signal so he had to wait, or add to another position. Not a situation we would find ourselves in today. I do not look for long bases, only broken downtrends. Other than that, i use TW entry and take smaller profits in MUCH shorter time frames. Recent examples include TFSM that i took a 40% profit on yesterday after 5 days, and the day before i sold COVD at 100% profit after 2.5 weeks. That having been said, i still own one true TW stock. AIRM- in at 4.10. -------alan

Tony and Alan have spoken their thoughts that the markets have changed. I will take the opportunity to disagree with them.

I personally see zero evidence after watching and interacting with the markets that the markets have changed except for one thing. Companies don't like to pay dividends much any more. That doesn't seem to impact the ability to make money from what I've seen.

While the "markets have changed" is a sexy idea and one that basically gives permission and provides some kind of justification for taking profits early, true investolating seems to do quite well still. I will caution though that the more I look into this, the more areas I see that can get screwed up if one isn't vigilant. So, proceed with care, and diversify.

I would be the first to declare TW out of date if I could find something better than trading and churning my account for my broker's benefit. But, I can't.

Good investolating if you do, good trading otherwise.

Dave

DC-
I can appreciate your response. We will have to "agree to disagree". One thing i know has changed, is there are exponentially more stocks to choose from now, and many more people doing their own research and making their own decisions. This leads to more volatility because there isn't as much herding by brokers, whom are herding with other brokers. I also add a couple pennies to my preferred sale position so my % of profit taking is pure. If datek gets rich off my quicker decisions, i guarantee i will also. I just cringe when i read someone getting excited about taking a position and then stating something to affect of "i'll probably have to be patient and wait 3 years, but it will be worth it when i get over 300% ROI". Change the 300% to 600% if it then sounds good to you. Now take that same money and settle for a measly 25% profit, and do it once a month. It was in one of the Ken Roberts archive chats with Matt Morsa that he was actually asked about whether or not he thought TW could be day-traded. He said he did see the same patterns in day-formation and that he was planning on looking into it a bit further. I do not know what conclusions he came to, or whether or not he is done coming to one, but i am satisfied with my own conclusions. Every purchase i make IS rooted in what i learned from TW. Again, i am not making an argument against pure TW technique. Obviously, it is very productive and the best method conceived that we have all come across. I have hy-bredded it for my own personal stylings, but would not recommend it to anyone that doesn't consider themselves an excellent chart formation reader. I know you are DC, and that is why i respect your opinion and expected such a response from someone like yourself. Happy investolator trading! -----------alan

Alan, (it's the Kid, right?), I agree with the personal style thing. Absolutely essential if you ask me, for many reasons probably. You've heard my own personal desires to only buy profitable companies, in direct violation to what Ted wrote in his book. And, he weren't big on fundamentals. There are a couple of fundamentals that are more important to me than the chart ...

The main reason I'll state over and over that things haven't changed is in looking back, not at the current situation. An excellent read, can't remember if you've mentioned having read it, is the pseudo autobiography of Jesse Livermore in Reminiscenses of a Stock Operator. He traded, and many people have tradedk, just after the turn of the century until now, just like people are saying "everyone is trading now". This is not a new phenomenon. They traded the ticker and the big board, we trade a computer screen with a ticker along side if desired (livecharts at quote.com). I look at charts on different time frames from different era's and they look the same ... except with higher volume, and as I mentioned, companies of old were much more inclined to try to reward their investors with dividends. But, that's a non-scientific observation.

Anyway, to any lurking, fairly new to Ted Warren people, I just wanted to make it clear from my point of view, that in these markets, just about anything can be found to trade or investolate in. You just gotta look. If you want "classic" TW stuff, it's there. Trust me.

As for your trading, my best wishes for your continued success. You have the right idea, I fully agree. Small profits done over and over, produce compounded returns that exceed the longer term type like myself. Trouble is, you've got to stay very sharp, as the increased percentage you are paying in commissions, since you are shaving your profit margin down significantly, is often problematic. I use the word sexy because trading, if on a roll, feels pretty sexy. But, it's difficult to make it last indefinitely, LOL.

Take care

Dave

Yes DC, you hit the nail directly when you say "Trouble is, you have to stay sharp,". I can't agree more. It IS fun right now, and we'll see how i hold up over the long haul. Yes, i'm on a roll, and believe that because i look for consolidations, i'm dealing with strength, albeit potentially short-term strength. Like i said, i build the commissions into my sales, so that is a non-issue. Bill has an excellent portfolio management system for diversification and profit/loss control that i have nearly completed the conversion to, have you read it? It helps keep things mechanical and the stress down. Makes micro-management a bit easier. Agree that the TW classic formations are still out there. Didn't mean to imply that they aren't. Only meant that a wider view and an openness to flexibility can be a good thing. You demonstrated this with your view on fundamentals. Thanks for that. And yes, of
course, i am the Kid. Best to you DC -----alan

dc Dave is closer to the style of thinking I have on TW than Alan or Tony. DC's methods can be likened to a TW beginner's mode. As well, I work 40+ hours a week and have a bunch of stuff to do to keep my life maintained so I don't have lots of time to micromanage so-called TW day trading tactics. I feel that that's rediculous. Worse, I don't believe it. I haven't checked it out, personally, but I simply don't believe it.

The "psychology" of people hasn't changed. The markets move faster, Alan, but people's brains don't move faster. The psychology of the markets still holds. So you may cringe if I say "I'll probably have to be patient and wait for 3 years", but what's 3 years? Nothing! Not when you're trying to survive and life is a bitch. The "pure" TW method is attractive not only because it represents reality but because its idiotically simple in comparison to anything else ever devised. It's the "codebreaker". It's the reason TW books were taken off the market... in my view. It's the reason TW isn't widely published and touted even today.

I'm going to start rating my favorite posters here and I'd say that DC Dave ranks, as far as I know since I started reviewing my own forum, as #1. Dave has AIRM, APFC and BLD. I've looked at AIRM and even day-trading Alan agrees. Great. So I'm going to go into AIRM too, I think. I'm not sure where I stand with Tony but I'll keep reviewing until I have a handle on everyone here.

TW classic formations, by the way, is what this forum is all about, from its inception. Stay with us Alan and I appreciate the divergence, but I also have to make plain for my lurker friends what's going on here.

Considering you haven't looked at it(my method), i'm so glad you could pass such a strong opinion. My average time in a winner has been 12 days with a 50% gain. My average time in a loser has been 24 days with a 24% loss. I currently have a 72% success rate that has been increasing steadily as i become better with my entry signals. 80% last month, with 8 of 9 winners in a row banked, and reinvested. Sold two on Friday for 25% pure gain after an average of 7 days ownership. Numbers don't lie, only people. Extrapolate those numbers if you wish to get a 12 month forcast. Still think it's ridiculous? Just doesn't work? I own my own business, and i work as many as 85 hours/week during a 9 month stretch and 35-45 the other three. I have two children that i give a considerable amount of time to as well. Time can be made for anything as long as you have your health. Thankfully, i do. I could easily spend less time "micro-managing" but choose to invest as much time as i can to learning and absorbing info and stragedy. When developing and honing any method, it takes 100% dedication to make it work. I have not pushed my picks, but many of them can be seen at Bill's site. The point i was trying to make is that being flexible is important. You railed on Dot for talking fundamentals, yet you annoint DC the best trader even with his fundamental views? Which is it? I find your ridicule ignorant, and inconsistent. ---------alan

I didn't realize dc Dave works with fundamentals to a large degree. I'm kind of going through the posts as I have time and looking around to see who makes comments that fit the TW profile. I'll look further into dc.

I don't have to look at your method to know that it's a problematic approach. The objective in trading stock the TW way is to expose the tactics used by the strong hands. That is the key to survival for all of us.

Honing the TW method for one's self does NOT take a 100% dedication, I don't think. There are lots of successful stock trading techniques out there, as I understand it, Alan. I'm sure you're good at what you do and it sounds like it's working for you. But this is a TW forum. The worst possible thing a moderator of a forum can do is to allow focus to drift.

Thanks for characterizing dc Dave for me, though. My tactic right now is to identify who's who here in terms of their TW acumen.

That's exactly your problem. DC IS a good trader and a good TW trader at that. The fact that he likes a fundamentally strong company that happens to be basing does not make him suddenly a poor TW trader. Your rigidity will always be your downfall. I guess if you wanted a company that has poor fundamentals to go along with a nice base, you would probably own BISA. For the record, i don't look at fundamentals, sectors, or anything else- but i don't criticize people who do. I believe it is a valid question. All the stocks i choose are in strong hands. It is exactly what my day-trading version is based on. If you were to ask me a single question about it, rather than dismiss it, you would have known this. --------alan

Reading these posts gives me the impression that everybody knows everbody here. It also reads like a family argument. I think that's great! It's good that everybody can have their own opinion and be able to safely express it. Thanks.

Rick, I'm glad that you started this forum as I am new to investing and even newer to TW trading. I'm also glad that you try to moderate it to keep everyone from losing focus. But it's also great (I mean GREAT!!) to have people like Alan and Tony contributing here. They may not be true TW traders, but their methods do work for them and it gives them a different perspective to bring to any conversation.

"If everyone had the same ideas, the world would be a boring place."

We learn best by combining different ideas, different perspectives to give us a larger picture. I for one feel blessed to have people like Tony and Alan share their views. Thanks again.

All my best to everyone

Dan

I have found the same flexibility. Due diligence is the key, what works for you, may not for me. That is one thing I have realized the first time I completed TW book. Since my husband and I were in it together and sharing our ideas and opinions I realized early on we are all not going to agree.

Part of disagreeing is learning as Alan and I AGREE upon.

Anyway take a look at these two. Owned and watching for explosion. RYOU and WDC. These are true TW stocks.

My only other watchings are still UIC, EEI, MDR to name a few.

I hope this doesn't post twice again. I have been having computer problems.

Best studies and investing to all.
Dot

Hello Jeff. What TW stocks do you like? Let's see them. Since you're not scared of the economy crashing, you must have a lot of them.

i don't claim to be perfect. i might hold alot of them if i had the money to spend. so these are the ones i currently hold. i'll back and reply again when i get a complete list of what i've held throughout the year. this list will be (as you will) not all TW picks. i'll go into a bit more detail on those in my next post. the two i hold currently are (i beieve TW stocks). these would be.

LNY
MAIN

once again these are what i currently hold. i'll show the rest when i know exactly what they are. i hope your pleased