Here is a little different opinion Rick.IBM is a wonderfull chart to swing trade.There have been so many opportunitys on those peaks and valleys.Where else can you make 20-30$$$ per trade in a very short time.As far as IBM having reached it top,No way,the long term looks good.JMO
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Thanks for you opinion Tony but given TW's analysis, how does IBM look?
No TW trader in his right mind is going to play those swings that you're playing. That's strictly suicidal insofar as a TW trader goes. Have fun. But I don't skydive either.
You claim IBM doesn't look to you as though it's reached it's top. So show me ONE chart-- just ONE-- that EVERY had the appearance that the IBM chart has now-- where it reached a new top after activity you've seen since 1999. On what Ted Warren argument would you say that IBM is poised for new highs? I don't think there is any.
If there WERE a TW basis for new highs at this time, then IBM would be a buy, right? And it's not obviously a good TW chart right NOW. Therefore, somethings wrong with your picture. Right?
How can it be that E. Seward has a stop at 107 (I think he said)? And you wouldn't?
Ted Warren was a working man who was very careful about his method. I too am a working man. I don't play those short term changes because it's too risky. TW removed some of the risk of trading, for the working man, by proving that long term patterns exist through assuming manipulation. Is IBM subject to that predicted manipulation that TW saw-- or not, in your view? Think TW and tell me what you see.
Obviously I'm looking for concurrance here. If TW is right, then theoretically, we ought to have about, at least, 10 people here in agreement as to what the future of IBM stock is. I'm beginning to think that there may be rogue visitors to this forum who are continually muddying the waters on purpose. I know that sounds paranoid-- but laser sharp focus on an idea is a very tough thing to manage and protect. The laser sharp focus on TW's impression of IBM is paramount at this time in IBM's history. You can't seriously believe IBM hasn't reached it's top can you-- given a TW interpretion. Are you a rogue element here to scatter the focus on TW-- or are you interested in what TW would say?
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Different folks will have different interpretations. As for Ted's interpretation, I think we'll have to ask him, in order to be sure. Anything else will be someone else's interpretation of Ted's interpretation.
Sometimes folks try to be helpful by providing whatever they feel they can contribute. I'm not sure that coming out swinging is a constructive response. If you disagree with Tony, why not just say you disagree?
I know Tony personally, and I am EXTREMELY confident that his posts are intended to be helpful, as well as written with the highest integrity.
Are you aware that accusations can be hurtful to those posting in good faith?
BTW, my IBM stop was around 104, based on a close 10% below a 63dMA. This has NOTHING to do with Ted's instruction, and was provided as an idea only. I NEVER tell someone else what to do with their $$.
IMO, one could either see IBM as topping (boiling action over the last 3 years) or making a high-level consolidation (over the same timeframe). We won't know for sure, IMO, except in hindsight.
Good trades.
Bill
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Your position as stated in very polite way and I fully understand that we want everyone to feel comfortable.
At the same time, the Ted Warren way of looking at a stock is less a matter of opinion than you're making it out to be. The reader shouldn't be fooled into thinking that reading the charts is just like going to the art gallery and offering opinions of paintings.
Warren is posting a big idea-- that the stock market is fixed... that the manipulation-- planned at whatever level of intent-- occurs and it's observable and predictable.
It's very fashionable and politically correct these days to say "in my humble opinion"-- as though many opinions can be right and many opinions can be wrong. The interpretation of a stock chart lends itself well to this sort of thing because it's tricky.
But how can there be multiple opionions as to what someone who bought IBM at 30 in '98 do, now that it's hit 120? To say we'd have to ask TW himself is obviously meant to make me look silly and the reader shouldn't fall for that. It's clear that if you were in early enough, it's time to get out.
"Respect" comes in many forms. The respect we ALL deseve here comes in a way that adheres to the TW analsyis and "what would Ted do?" as a leading indicator of what would WE do? E. Seward is actually saying that "some of us would hold and some of us would sell... it depends on your opinion".
NO! IF you purchased IBM at 30 or 40 in 97 or 98, THEN TW methods would definitely have you out by now or at least placing a stop and expecting to be stopped out in the near future.
You can respond to this post, here. Or you can start a new topic at Cryonaut.
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You said yourself you have a stop above 100. You haven't spelled clearly where you got in. Why not?
Now you desist. On what basis? On the basis that I'm positioning a framework where there's a correct and an incorrect TW interpretation?
The options you've created so far are:
1. In anyone's opinion, anything can have merit.
2. A politically correct form of politeness is more important than getting to the nub of an issue.
3. My position, as described as correct with respect to TW by ME, is unacceptable to you so you leave.
I hope the audience sees what's going on here. I'm here to look at stocks from TW's point of view. Seward is a very nice fellow-- I can tell that. But at some point, the rubber hits the pavement with respect to TW analysis and it comes down to whether something is true or not. In the case of IBM, it's true that anyone in when it began its rise from 30 around 1997-98, ought to be out now, or close to it, by getting stopped out.
What I don't understand is how in the world Seward can possibly see the chart any different than me! Instead of going to head to head, he's bailing out. Fine, I wish he wouldn't but it's a free country. I hope he visits again. In the meantime, the current readers here have some work to do.
IBM is a famous company. It's fun to watch the big companies scramble or get hyped or whatever and then watch the long term chart from TW's point of view. Look at IBM yourself. Let's listen in on the news now and watch what goes on. I'm claiming that IBM is going to go into distribution-- meaning that the insitutional buyers, the strong hands TW talks about, are going to simply unload the shares on the duped public. The sheep are about to be sheared.
I don't quite understand how stock prices fall, but its got to do with bids and asks. The bid price is going to get lower and lower. And this will happen over the next year or two.
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I'm fond of looking at the HIGH and mighty stocks that CNBC loves to pump up. I think the charts of CITIBANK(C), JPMORGANCHASE(JPM), BANKOFAMERICA(BAC),FREDDIEMAC(FRE), AND FIRSTBOSTONFINANCIAL(FBF) beckon to be SHORTED, or better yet PUT options into june and july, with strike prices 20% below their current levels.
these charts show TW trends, and some are in their distribution phase, especially C & JPM. they are wayy to high. personal dept and defaulting loans should hurt them, IMHFO.
anyone else messing with options and TW patterns?
tk
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to give you an idea, look at 3M (MMM) chart. a feb put position purchased last week (feb 105 put) gained 250% approximately since then. I think this is a great way to expand the TW philosophy to make more money.
tk
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IBM just finished a consolidation . A triangle in this case. It broke out in Dec. 2000.
I was not 100% certain till i looked at the chart in US Charts, and you quessed it, there is no volume increase. With 1.7 billion shares, distribution is going to be HUGE volume.
Case in point, DELL traded 75 million a day on average during its distribution top.
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