IBM has been covered in a previous thread. I'd like to open up another thread to start fresh.

The objective here is to see what consensus there is, if any, on the history and current condition of this stock.

When posting to this thread, state your name or username, confirm that you've looked at the 10 or 20 year chart at Bigcharts.com and tell us when a TW trader would have been in and out. Describe the current status of the stock in TW terms.

I have indeed studied the longterm chart. I also consider myself a TW purist. IBM has obviously had it's markup phase('96-'99) and Investolators holding IBM should have sold in '99(near the top or at the break of the steep uptrendline). The question in my mind is whether it's current action is distribution or accumulation action. I recall that TW's book has several charts that can be compared to IBM's current chart. Could IBM's current action be a H&S bottom('99-'01)? A robust break above the all time highs would certainly trigger a buy signal according to the chart formation. This type of a trade is definately not for the faint of heart but TW saw fit to include the pattern in his book so i won't ignore it. Perhaps over the next few years the price will consolidate and mature into a picture perfect high level consolidation. If this is the case, IBM could be a real bargain at $135 in 3-7 yrs.
TW warned that, even for a seasoned Investolator, determining how high is too high for any stock is virtually impossible. I for one am taking his wisdom to heart. I don't know what IBM stock is gonna do next but I am convinced that the next 1-2 yrs will reveal it. Until then, I will watch it patiently and learn from it... Hell, if it breaks above $135 I may buy some. LOL
Profitable investolating to you all.

Thank you, daboomer, for your cutting edge TW purist view. This is manna from TW heaven. Good gracious, I was beginning to feel as though I was alone again.

So here are the salient points that Daboomer has made-- for the visiting reader:

1. IBM has obviously had it's markup phase, from 96 through 99. Investolators should have sold in 99. (Seward, why couldn't you simply admit this much, eh? Or are you still visiting?)

2. Are we now in a high level consolodation? This is an interesting point, given DaBoomer's knowledge of TW's idea that "how high is too high is impossible to know". The chart certainly looks weird-- compared to what you would think a distribution phase would be like. The H&S chart is one I'll have to look at.

3. Point #2 is completely irrelevent to the overall fact that IBM, as a TYPICAL TW trade, ought to have been sold by now if it was purchased at just before the markup which was clearly obvious to the Investolator. DaBoomer acknowleged this. And then he goes on to say that IN ADDITION to the fact that the Investolator would be out by now, we have a new and DIFFERENT phenomenon of a possible new accumulation phase, which is indistinguishable from what would normally be thought of as a distribution. DaBoomer even comes up with a previous example of a similar pattern--H&S. The average Investolator who is faint of heart would not play this-- yet it has possibilities. I'd agree with that much-- and I'd also point out that I'm faint of heart and would not try it.

4. Last but not least, DaBoomer has a sense of humour. A TW purist with a sense of humor is definitely #1 on my list of favorite contributors here. Thank you, DaBoomer. Very impressive input. Congratulations. A+.

...with daboomer.i do see other points of view------bu strong fundametals and holding up well in these market conditions compared to competitors.but from a strict tw standpoint i have to agree--sell.[broken trendlines]

A+ for tj for saying "from a strict tw standpoint, sell [broken trendlines].

How civil of him to say that there are other points of view. Of course, he politely avoids saying that those other points of view, with respect to TW, are "wrrrrong". But that's okay. tj makes it clear that TW would have sold IBM by now. That's what this forum is about. Thank you.

There are 2 or 3 charts in TW's book that show the hi-level H&S bottom occurring after a feature markup(one of them was a car manufacturer i think). In my years of observing charts i have seen several stocks that indeed did take off from this uncommon type of base. While TW's suggestion that these bases could yield 100% profit is accurate, I have observed that at least 50 percent of the time the fast break break above all time highs quickly turns into a buying and selling frenzy(i.e. distribution) resulting in a 'premature' true top; often far below the anticipated 100% profit mark. Trading this type of base can at times be the only 'safe' investolation one can make. Thankfully, the 'grand cycle' has not yet run it's course; there are still plenty of bargains to be found.
In defense of a tried and true(and perhaps the oldest) chart pattern, a well placed H&S bottom on a monthly barchart that is properly acted upon can greatly and rapidly increase the size of an Investolator's account. If you ever find one in a low-level base(wink, wink-->TOD [and plenty of other ones that im to lazy to find]) buy confidently and hold for the big pull. The H&S bottom may not be easy to spot(often only hindsight will reveal them) but it is one of the most powerful tools that an Investolator has at their disposal as it not only identifies the right price to pay but also the right time.
Let's all take out our homework pads... Today's assignment: Reread TW's chapter on H&S bottoms. Now if i could only find my tattered copy.

Profitable investolating to u all.

Great homework assignment. Thanks. I have to find a copy of TWs book too-- which I'm going to do this week.

Other visitors to this forum-- listen up. I can tell you-- DaBoomer is definitely on track here. Great stuff.

What do you think of Daboomers TW take on IBM?
See, this is where we figure out who's who on this forum. I think you'd find reading the TW book very interesting. Why not get yourself a copy so that you can enjoy this forum more?

Reading that TW book should actually be a rerequisite for being here, but I might create a firewalled TW forum for that exclusive club later. Are you going to be interested in that or not?

Do you understand what Daboomer is saying about IBM? Do you even WANT to understand what he's saying?

KSS seems a lot like IBM to me. How about to you? The same analysis applies, no? Thanks.

nt

that this is a high end accum base as well. The only way you can be sure is be patient. I would post a stop loss if I bought in early enough and had a good percentage profit under my belt 80% or more. But I would not buy in now and tie up any of my capitol.

Here is the odd thing. If you look around some of the very big companies are going through the same consolidation. One I thought was consolidating was DOW, but recently took another tumble close to the last one. Easily it could still be a base accum. But time will tell.

update