Hey Troutman your stocks looking good TMED up 5% and IDYN up 15%. Also RGEN,PLI,GTNR up. And one that has been twitching as if it might do something II Intersystems Inc. which if you have not seen yet or looked at I will give my opion on this one but this is only my opion....
II had a slow downtrend from 1990 to the end of 1995 at that time it broke out followed shortly after by a shakeout which lasted to the middle of 1997. II started another rise only to be followed by another shakeout followed by a third shakeout which it is now in, however with the action I have been seeing lately it seem to me it might be coming time for the rise. It also rose to $1 today but settled at .75 the last time it hit $1 was Sept.99. Well I guess I have said enough to get me in trouble but I would appreciate any decussion or feed back on this even if you think I'm wrong..How can we all learn if we do not try or talk about this system.... Good Luck to all
John
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Hi! I'm new to this board and learning. From a discussion on Bargainhunters (see post 2727), I learned about a rise in OBV often preceding the the rise of the stock. I don't see that here. When the stock has 3 shakeouts and no real strong OBV sign, I would think now is not the time.
Only my hit.
Best wishes and check out that OBV post!
Elena
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I went to see what you where talking about and the poat 2727 was not there but will check out the OBV on II and see if I can see what you are saying. Thanks for your in sight. Good luck to you.
John
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I think that post was removed by the originators of that club because they are touchy about any method not mentioned directly by Ted Warren. This post as you will see certainly follows Ted's theory, he just didn't have this tool in the sixties, pre-computers. It was originally posted by eseward2000 1/13/2000. I don't think eseward would mind my quoting it:
"OVB: I have used it very successfully as a leading indicator to price ( often several months or quarters). As you said, it will drop before price at tops (distribution). I'm more interested in using it at bottoms. I find OBV usually flattens out months before price does on downtrends, and builds months before price does on accumulation, prior to markup. Also I like it as a comfirning trend-strenth indicator, where increasing OBV on uptrends indicates good volume to support the trend. I NEVER sell on increasing OBV , regardless of price activity (retrace), except to remove my original investment from the position (free trade).
The logic on accumulaton is this: As long as there is float available (weak hands,) price won't rise. Once the float has been consumed during the base, OBV rising but price not rising, stock moving into strong hands), demand in a tight supply situation will force the price up dramatically (markup).
I'm interested in OBV -price divergence at tops, But I find OBV may drop while price continues to rise for many months (trading momentum). So I use the 52 wk slope of the closing price to determine when the rise seems to have peaked (slope goes to 0). This AFTER the OBV begins to fall off. That signals my sell point.
I'm also interested in differences beween OBV and price levels. Remember that OBV tracks volume by closing price. A big drop in price with an equivalent drop in OBV usually means the stock is in weak hands. If OBV doesn't drop in a similar way to price, the price drop is on LOW VOLUME and the majority of holders AREN'T selling in spite of the drop (indicates strong hands?) I find again and again that a stock which has a BIG drop in price but NOT an equivalent drop in OBV will return to where it was before the drop (a real Bargain). I use an estimation of this to predict price targets for pending moves...."
I fortunately printed this post out, and have learned more each time I re-read it. Hope it helps you too and thanks to eseward200 wherever you are!
Best wishes,
E.
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OBV stands for on balance volume. It's a lower indicator that can be used on charts. If the stock closes higher, then the total daily volume is considered to be up volume and vise versa. I just learned this this from another investolator.
He uses it with success, I will certainly take this into consideration on my next stock purchase.
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I will print this out and study over this and apply it to my charts to see if I understand and can use it... Thanks very much