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Roix. chart reading?

August 4 2000 at 1:24 PM
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Murphy 
from IP address 205.188.198.47

 
In need of Technical Trader to read roix chart.Is this puppy destined for a big rise, was the spike distribution or accumulation, future forecast timeframe.
Also if like most on this site you've read ted's book. In the book Ted mentions 1$ charts, 5$ charts and so on. When i'm doing my research on big charts the charts squares are rectangular, making it difficult to see 45degrees atc. My main concern is does this format give a distorted view for long range chart reading?

 
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152.163.207.213

For Murphy

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August 6 2000, 10:42 PM 

Murphy, scroll down to chart distortions by Kulick and then read the next post by lester.You will find the answer there.Roix has had a lot of sell off.There are two reasons insiders sell. The first is profit taking and the second is the insiders do not have muchfaith in the co.Insiders are down to two percent.[not good] but institutions are 55% which is very good.Roix is moving sideways and will for a while until it has enough technical strength to break out again.TW said that many bases of under a year have very good rises.Using the TW criteria for selection Its pretty hard to make a mistake for the long term,as he also states that a lot more stocks go up than down.A fairly safe method of selection.It will probably take up to a year for this stock to break again.Of course in this market anything can happen.This is a wait and see situation.I do think the rise will be in the short term.TW refered to the short term as rallies or spikes or thrust moves.If the volume starts to show 50% or better you got the spike.Some of these spikes are very profitable if you own enough shares.I don't think it will break out the TW way at 45 percent.If you have any other questions please post or email me.

 
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Lester

24.65.243.165

Chart reading- Those distortions

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August 11 2000, 2:32 PM 

I've recognized the importance of some consistancy in viewing charts, especially as I have used Big Charts on the internet and they have all sorts of different scales and the "boxes" resemble all different sizes from perfect squares to long rectangles. It really can be a little difficult judging the downtrending action or base of these charts when these distortions are so evidently present and vary from stock to stock.

Ted, in his book, discusses the value of long range charts on page 135. Specifically, the long range charts that we use to base our buy and sell decisions on, should have a contrast of action including the previous top, to have any real value. Ted additionally notes the deceptiveness of chart scaling on page 253 when he discusses that if the chart of CGI was on a 50 cent scale, the uptrend would have been just over 45 degrees.

In trying to get a grasp on properly judging a charts action, I noticed that in both Ted's book and the United States Chart Company Stock Charts (Which Tony Church was very generous in sending them to me-thanks Tony!) that there is one thing that appears to make all these charts have "good contrast". That one thing is that whatever dollar figure or scale that is used on the right of the chart, it almost always forms a "square" box with a one year period along the horizontal axis.

Although this still amounts to a very subjective approach (ie: 45% uptrend is relative to the scale on the right), I believe this practice of using "good contrast" with past long term action will bring about more comfort when viewing on-line charts.

An example of the confusion of viewing on-line charts and of how good contrast can clarify chart reading can be seen with Hurricane Hydrocarbons. I viewed this stock and initially thought that this is one that all Ted Heads would not have entered. Look at the break of that steep downtrend on the long term chart. There appears to be really no decent period of accumulation that occured with this stock.

http://www.bigcharts.com/custom/investorline-com/investorline.asp?sid=103400&o_symb=hhl.a&symb=hhl.a&time=20&comp=&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&country=ca&draw.x=42&draw.y=12

If we take a closer look at this chart, though, we may recognize the "bad contrast" we have in that the rectangular boxes actually compress the whole chart. Look at the chart again with it adjusted to have good contrast as the charts in Ted's book and the US chart company have.

http://www.bigcharts.com/custom/investorline-com/investorline.asp?sid=103400&o_symb=hhl.a&symb=hhl.a&time=12&comp=&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&country=ca&draw.x=53&draw.y=13

We still maintain a long term perspective, and yet by ensuring we have adjusted the chart to show a "square" in regards to the scale on the right with a years period of time, we get a somewhat different view. I believe this is the view that would best represent judging the value of the accumulation period. We can clearly see now that near the end of '98, Hurricane started into a slower downtrending action ending in a nice break about a year latter. Not the 2 year downtrend Ted would ideally like to see, but definatly this chart represents a view much different than the first one which I believe Ted would catagorize as haveing "poor contrast".

In short, I believe that if we adjust our internet charts as I have described above (forming a box in regards to the scale on the right with a one year period), we will eliminate the confusing distortions that appear to occur in the long range on-line charting services.

Opinions and insight into this are welcomed.

Lester.

 
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205.188.200.41

To Lester

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August 11 2000, 10:10 PM 

This is really a good topic.After reading your post i printed out the two charts.I could see quite a difference.Even the volume is eaiser to read and understand in relation to the price action.What looked like what may have been a little distribution in 97 actually looks like a more consolidating action.At the end of 99 it looks like a higher volume rise on one chart and you can actually see the periodic consolidating periods.On one chart i would have drawn my uptrend line and would have been ready to bail on the crossover.The other chart shows me a good climbing support line of not more than 45 degrees. One shows a steep downtrend With a very short base,and the other a graduall downtrend with more of a base.Not the base TW liked,but it will do.This also would help alot on the entry point and exit.One chart looks more volitale on the climb.Maybe this comparison goes on and on.You made a very good point here Lester.Excellant post. Thanks

 
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