I purchased two stocks in the fall of 1998 which were featured in the Investolator. They are TNR and II. I purchased TNR at 1 3/8 and II at 1 1/8. When you check the charts, you will see that they have not done what was projected in the newletter. I have been patient as I can be holding these two positions, and would like to know how much longer I will have to wait before they start to move. Can someone please respond and reassure me? I would appreciate it.

Can't say. They both look like they're in downtrends to me. I think you'll be waiting a while.
On a positive note, OBV and the TC2000 "MoneyStream" indicator both look good for TNR (near all-time highs), and "MoneyStream" looks good for II (all-time high), so they should turn around eventually.

I'd dump II. What a horrible chart! I'd like to see the Investolator issue that recommended that one because that chart doesn't accord with the basics of TW's ideas by any stretch of my imagination-- and my imagination stretches pretty good. When I look at that chart, I get the same churning in my gut I think I'd get if I were on a jetliner and it banked too far and flipped over.

TNR is different. It's easy to see how someone could have seen a base and been fooled by a possible but false breakout and bought too early. That's happened twice. I've been impatient before and lost out on a rise and this looks like a situation where you've got the ingredients for a nice rise but you have to wait.

Not having any stock in TNR myself at this time, I think I'd probably moniter it and wait for it to cross $3, or at least $2.50 before I considered it to be taking off within a reasonable several months.

I'd like to get a back issue of the Investolator that recommended II. I hate to ask anyone to pop it in the mail to me, but if you have an e-gold account, I'll pay you a couple bucks for it.

As an investolater i think the most important thing to figure out is whose hands the stock is in.[the weak hands or the strong hands]Lets take a look at what happened to II the last couple of years.According to your post you purchased II in Oct or Nov of 98 during it mark down or as some call it the down trend.As Ted warren stated,never buy during a downtrend!When II hit the bottom it appeared to start moving sideways.This type of action could fool an investolater into thinking the stock was starting to consoldate.In Ted warrens book he states that just because a stock bottoms out and starts a sideways movement it does not always mean it has moved into consoladation.This was the case for II. In March of 99 it took another drop which was a clue that the downtrend had not been completed.the volume was still a little high.[still selling off]If you would draw a line between the to high points during this downtrend you will understand what is happening up to this pt.Towards the end of March the real consolidation period started.This consolidation period lasted until the near end of August.During this consolidation period you will notice that the volume started getting very quiet.This according to TW this is a discouraging action to the weak hands.This is also a clue to what is about to happen.Price and volume are quiet the opposite of the downtrend.You can plainly see the manipulation going on here buy the strong hands.This discouraging action was topped of with one final shakeout.This is more discouraging action.This shaker lasted about 4 months. The price dropped to .5625 which with a downtrend line this would have been a good entry point.Notice how all at once the price and volume took off.Anyway,with another uptrend line you would have sold out for a +212% gain.Not to bad for an investolater and your hard studding of the TW course.According to the chart, II is in a accumalation phase now.This is part one of the four phases of the stock cycle.Paitence is on your side so look for II to go up again.Ted Warren says that accumalations can be under a year.Buy studding the chart of ii you may get a clue as to how long you will have to wait according to what ii has done in the past.

Buying TNR in the fall of 98 and being new to the charts you may have thought TNR was going to go much higher than the just under $3.00 per share at its peak.Once TNR peaked and started to fall you probably thought it would turn around and go higher.Instead you rode it down to the bottom as so many investors do.This includes me.This is a hard discourageing lesson.TNR marked up on high volume as well as marking down on high volume.Was there distribution at its peak,I don't think so.AS TNR came close to its bottom you can see the volume dropping off.These downtrends are discourageing actions.In April of 99 TNR started to climb on not more than a 45 degree angle.TW shows us this type of climb, many times in his book.This type of climb is a clue to two things that can take place.The first thing that can happen is that the stock can hesitate and consolidate at a higher level or it will not hesitate and just keep going up slowly.Notice in April when TNR started to climb it was a low volume rise.This slow climb tells me that the underlying strength of the Co. is good.And sure enough it started to consolidate.During this period of consolidation the volume was still low.It looked like the stock could not go up.This is another discourageing action.By using our trend lines on the 5 month consolidation period we could have just waited for a break above the trendline.But as an investolater and not seeing any distribution on the last rise would make us think that the manipulators had something better in store for the weak hands.A final shakeout would probably work good on the weak hands.[selloff]So, after 4 months of the shakeout the investolater could pin point with accuracy the break and close above the trendline.Notice how low the volume was at the completion of the shakeout.After a little spike TNR moved sideways for about six weeks.Take note of the volume.[higher]After the six weeks TNR did make another run up.TNR came down almost as quickly,and is now consolidating.I don't see any distribution on this small run up either.If you look at the price patterns of the past history of II and TNR you can see how the cycles repeat themselves.On both II and TNR i would watch and hold.

Enjoyed them both. Thanks!

Thank you for your responses to TNR and II. I guess in hindsight, these wouldn't be the two I would have picked for my first TW trades. To answer the question about II in the Investolater newsletter, I think it appeared in Aug or Sept of 98. Call the company in Oregon to get the exact issue. II and TNR were both featured and being a rookie, I thought, well this is easy, I'll just trade what they recommend and I will make money. I just never knew it would be 2-3 years or more to see a return on my investment.

So I guess from the analysis I should just hold my positions.

Stocks that are featured on the monthly newsletter by Matt Morsa are picked by technical price action only. One thing for an investolater to consider is that some stocks are more marketable to the public than others. That does not mean that II and TNR will not go up, based on a sound base and sound accumulation they are bound to, but a matter of when comes into the picture. Most people, including all of us, would rather make money or large capital gains sooner than later. Even Ted said many times that when a stock is going to take off it is impossible to predict exactly when only that it eventually will. Over the last year or so there have been several medical and biotechnology stocks that were recommended by the newsletter, one comes to mind Repligen Inc. This stock had a solid base and moved up late last year and consolidated at around 4. The public were easily baited into buying this stock quickly. It soon rose past $15 a share in a little over a month. In fact, I purchased some on Feb. 1st and sold on March 1st with a ROI of 250% before fees and commissions. If you will remember this is also the same time the public could not get enough of Biotech stocks. Certain stocks based on what the company does will assist in baiting the public into purchasing heavily at higher and higher prices. This is just another item that we as investolaters have at determining which Ted Warren stock formations we should invest our hard earned money in.

I think this was a well needed post.I have often thought that as an investolater we need to look at all the prospects before purchasing a stock.I think we have an advantage when we look to see what sectors are strong and in public favor.I have seen stocks go up that were not technically strong or fundamentally good,but the public sentiment is great.Hey,buy this tech stock,this sector is hot,or buy these gold shares,its the in stocks.These people jump in and do pretty well.Eventually a lot of them loose as these sectors can change very quickly.Looking at the past stocks that the investolater recommends is really not to bad.The TW courses always say to paper trade before you buy.Theres a definate reason for investing with play money.we need to see what actually happens with a stock over a period of time.To understand what goes on is a plus in our favor.If i was twenty years old and did nothing but TW stocks as interpeted by the investolater boys,in twenty years i would be very well off.And as you say,the majority of these TW stocks will go up within a given period of time.

would it be wise to purchase more shares of TNR and II to bring down my cost basis? or sit tight on these two and look for other opportunities? Your response will be appreciated.

Well Jon,there are two schools of thought pretaining to your question.First,you can average down your costs buying more shares of II and tnr.Depending how many shares you can afford to buy,would tell you how far down you want to average.Example: If you started with 100 shares and bought 100 more, you would be at one half of your orginal investment.200 shares would bring your cost down even more and so on.The draw back here is that it is going to take a while for these stocks to come back.The money you put in will sit idle with no interest.Another view is why put money into a loser.Also if these are the only two stocks you own it would be wise to diversify more.Take a look at ashw,the upside potential for the short,medium and long term look great.Another one to look at is RDRT which has started to move and there are many more.Hope this reply helps.

I find myself totally agreeing with you again.

TNR's chart is interesting from a TW point of view. I'm looking at it in hindsite of course, but Church was in TNR and offered the above analysis. I have to say that it doesn't appear to me as though it was ever time to get into TNR. It's been flat for literally decades, showing no signs of life on the timeframe that TW would consider.

It strikes me as possible that Church is looking at his stocks in too short a time frame, trying to apply TW methods to price changes over months or weeks instead of years. Tightening up a time frame too much makes the method impossible.

I'm becoming curious as to what the specific analysis of specific contributors to this forum has been. I'm singling Church and maybe Seward out since they know each other, apparently, and often comment on each others posts positively. Seward commented on Church's analysis of TNR for example in a positive way. Yet it would seem to me that Seward would think that Church's timeframe was too tight, as well.

Just in case people misinterpret me, I'm commenting on OTHERS' interpretation of the charts not in ANY disrespect but rather with a view in mind to try to figure out who, here, is making any sense to me. It doesn't look like TNR ever made ANY sense to get into. I wouldn't even have touched it in 1999. Like I said, though, I recognize the problem of hindsite so it might have looked different then.



You can respond to this post, here. Or you can start a new topic at Cryonaut.

Hi Rick,I have only been posting here since April or may of 2000.I have never owned TNR simply because of TWs rule,never buy on a downtrend.Seems that TNR has been downtrending for quite some time.Now if you think that all I trade is swing trades,you are mistaken.I have posted that I trade two methods,One is TW and the other is swing trades on OB and OS.Now if you look at the true context of what TW was trying to convey to us you would see that he taught bases of two or more years,downtrends of the same duration,infact he was quite open that the longer the base the larger % of rise.Another aspect of his trading was that bases of a year or less would return good rises but not as strong as the longer bases.So with that in mind you have to remember that a short base is only as good as the chart that preceded the short base.So,as a trader I still have to look at where that base came from.The chart as per TW will let me know how strong this base is and if I should buy or put on my watch list.With simple trend lines I wait for the break above and close above the trendline.Trendlines are nothing more then mechnical indicators.Depending on the chart I sometimes like the breakout on low volume and a gradual rise of not more then 45 degrees like TW describes,with a downside climbing support line.If the rise is to fast I am ready to get out as there are an abundunce of charts to make money on.Besides,That piticular chart probably needed more time to gather technical strength for the next rise,however long that would take.Anyone can get fooled on a chart,thats the learning process we go through.A couple of stocks that I made big TW bucks were PENN and LH.Take a close look at LH and check the action which is close to IBMs action.These are a few of the TW stocks I am in at the present time.
Bought at: Present price
COBR 4.00 7.85
SGM 3.00 8.25
LIFC 1.85 3.32
cnty 1.90 2.31
clhb 2.00 3.78
xnr 2.50 2.25
These are just a few stocks I am in at present.The are about twenty more with similar rises for the long term.I only posted a few so you could study these beautiful TW charts.A few of my stock were purchased of short bases and some with long bases.No matter how long the base is I still look for support on the long term chart.Each one of the stocks I own I hold at least 1000 shares.So Rick,when you think of that guy CHURCH, remember that I got my start from TW and still use his method even on those swing trades of less then a year.

nice trades tony. i've been watching clhb and i noticed your long.do you think its to late to enter a new position?i know it has a long base monthly.the recent price action is what has me concerned.rising 100% this year already not sure if its too late.i see a trianlge formation breakout and price consolidating this week.seems to be forming a smaller triangle.all indicators still positive[macd,ma's,obv].i'm not sure if you use indicators but will still like to hear your comments.-------thanks

tnr----should have given you a buy signal on aug98.tnr had a 5 1/2yr base.slow dontrend from 93,had a false breakout in 95 to continue its downtrend to the end of 97.notice the quiet price and volume action in 97.the volume spike in the end of 97 was a clue to watch the price action.should have left trade with a least a50% gain as tw wrote to sell on fast rises reaching 100% ii--------never had base.price action from 93 to 97 seemed like a false support level.the price moving upward as soon as it would touch the $1 level,not spending much time in the bottom range. this is jmo,using only monthly chart and tw methods.like you said rick its all in hindsight anways so it dosen't matter much.