1. EU's Rise:
EU with 500 million ppl will not be slave of USA anymore, Germans and Frenchs will not pick that anymore. BTW. Economically EU will be much stronger than USA, militarily if EU wants EU can be Strong too. Disadvantage of EU against USA is that USA is a single country, while EU is a big mess up.
2. China's Rise:
Traditional Enemy of USA, getting stronger every year, possibly in 2025 will match USA head to head. Conflicts area is the Control of Asia.
3. Russia:
Traditional Enemy of USA. Huge nukes.
USA will not be very important anymore in world stage after 2025, the time of USA dictatorship in the world will be finished soon.
World may enter a long period of Peace with 4 or 5 (india) big powers.
This message has been edited by HBN2025 on May 12, 2004 6:23 PM
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I condemn the Imperialist - Christian genocide of theIraqis , NAtive Americans , Muslims , Chinese , Vietnamese , Somalians , Koreans , .... and others in the Double faced - Disgusting imperialist empire also known asthe West .
If its against us Asians, it is treated as a small matter, if the same Incident happens against the west it is an ASTROCITY
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Compared to who? The EU is big, but like most confederations it has very limited central power. The EU will not be replacing US influence on world events anytime soon.
China is a growing power, but they are a regional force, not a world force. At least as of today. I don't see that changing at least not in the next 20-30 years.
Russia has fallen so far it'll take decades for them to recover their power.
Like it or not, there is no one to challenge the USA in global influence and won't be for at least 2 more decades.
E Tan, E Epi Tas!
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"EU's Rise:
EU with 500 million ppl will not be slave of USA anymore, Germans and Frenchs will not pick that anymore. BTW. Economically EU will be much stronger than USA, militarily if EU wants EU can be Strong too. Disadvantage of EU against USA is that USA is a single country, while EU is a big mess up."
The EU's prospects of competing with the United States on the world stage are, for the lack of a better word... comdedic. The Eurozones average economic growth rate, according to the economist, is about half that of the United States, and their average unemployment rate is also twice as high. The economist forcast for 2005 and 2006 continue to predict that the US will outperform Europe dramatically.
More importantly, the EU is facing a major demographic crisis. Quite simply, they are failing to replace their population, especially in Germany, Spain, and Italy. France and Britain, for the meantime seem to be doing fine, but for the rest of Europe, their population's are shrinking, and the ratio of native residents to aliens is growing to astonishing proportions. This has already produced social strife, and can inevitably only lead to more as islamic and african immigrants continue to swell in numbers.
In short, if things continue to go as they have... and there is no reason to assume that they wont... Europe stands no chance of competing with the US on a global level.
"2. China's Rise:
Traditional Enemy of USA, getting stronger every year, possibly in 2025 will match USA head to head. Conflicts area is the Control of Asia."
China certainly stands a good chance of rivaling the US economically... but not for sometime. The US economy is still about 6 or 7 times larger than China's. I know all you chinese nationalists just shat yourself thinking "he didn't take into account PPP!." relax... when comparing global economic clout... it makes sense to use normal GDP adjusted for market exchange rates rather than PPP. PPP is a tool used to compare living standards, and the cost of a basket of goods across borders... not overall economic might. For this very reason... the G7 is composed of nation's with the largest nominal GDPs adjusted for exchange rates... not the nations with the largest GDP in terms of PPP.
China's economy is bound to slow its pace of growth, especially since the CCP announced that this was its intention anyway. The 9% growth rates simply aren't sustainable, and within the next decade, we should see growth settle back down to around 6 percent.
Militarily, China has an even longer way to go. It has an excellent continental and regional military... but its power projection is basically zero. Being a superpower is about being able to exert your influence on a world stage... in this sense... Britain and France will better qualify as "superpowers" in the coming decade than china will. China's navy is still essentially a littoral one, and it will be several decades yet before it can develop the capabilities that the US and Royal navies currently posess.
"3. Russia:
Traditional Enemy of USA. Huge nukes."
dont make me laugh. ALL Russia HAS is its nukes... nothing else. It cant project power, and much of its arsenal is rusting in disrepair.
USA will not be very important anymore in world stage after 2025, the time of USA dictatorship in the world will be finished soon."
lol, a thoroughly uninformed point of view.
United We Stand.
"Now, while still pursuing the method of realising our overall strategic concept, I come to the crux of what I have travelled here to say. Neither the sure prevention of war, nor the continuous rise of world organisation will be gained without what I have called the fraternal association of the English-speaking peoples. This means a special relationship between the British Commonwealth and Empire and the United States. Thus, whatever happens, and thus only, shall we be secure ourselves and able to work together for the high and simple causes that are dear to us and bode no ill to any. Eventually there may come—I feel eventually there will come—the principle of common citizenship, but that we may be content to leave to destiny, whose outstretched arm many of us can already clearly see.
Winston Churchill
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Never has there been a more insidious example of revisionist history. Every time there has been a multi-polar balance of power, the world inevitably spirals into violence.
Periods in which a UNI-polar balance of power has prevailed
- 1815 to 1900 (congress of Vienna) UNI-polar balance of power in which Britain ruled the world
major international wars fought: Boer war? Opium war?
- 1990 to 2004 (Rule Americanna) UNI-polar balance of power in which America is supreme
Major international wars fought: Persian gulf war, Kosovo, Invasion of Afghanistan, and OIF.
United We Stand.
"Now, while still pursuing the method of realising our overall strategic concept, I come to the crux of what I have travelled here to say. Neither the sure prevention of war, nor the continuous rise of world organisation will be gained without what I have called the fraternal association of the English-speaking peoples. This means a special relationship between the British Commonwealth and Empire and the United States. Thus, whatever happens, and thus only, shall we be secure ourselves and able to work together for the high and simple causes that are dear to us and bode no ill to any. Eventually there may come—I feel eventually there will come—the principle of common citizenship, but that we may be content to leave to destiny, whose outstretched arm many of us can already clearly see.
Winston Churchill
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Congratulation too, seems you did some housework last night lol
1. About EU, I agree most of your views, basically yours is same as mine in my old post. But you underestimate EU a bit. I said EU may be a Big Mess internally, but EU sure can project their force in world conflict without any doubt, easily deploy 50,000 troops to conflict areas. BTW, future conflicts are mostly Economic Ones, EU has huge capability to rival USA in this area.
2. About China.
(1) Want to point out this: Does G7 really contain the 7 Most Biggest GDP nations? No.
(2) China's economy is bound to slow its pace of growth, this is true in long term. But I can safely predict China's GDP growth will maintain 8 to 9% in coming 20 years. Before 2025 China's GDP will be 4 times bigger than Now. At this moment, only the Coastal Provinces are booming rapidly, while Tradional Chinese Economical Centers like in the Huge Northern 3 Provinces are still in the process to Reforms, and all the effects of Advanced Provinces in Coastal Area's will be projected into Inner Provinces and Chinese economic progress will go in the way of Layers, one layer after another layer, China's economy has a LONG way to boom, 20 years 8% growth is not a difficult one at all, as long as Chinese government takes good control.
(3)Military projection power:
It is about Navy, China has no problem to create a Navy to project forces, building carriers is not a difficulty for China at all. Why China does not build carriers is China just want the Economy go in the first step, with Money, everything becomes easy work. That's why China's military is focused now only on Taiwan. In 20 years, with a 4 times bigger GDP, building and maintaining 2 Carrier Groups isn't that a difficult thing.
Note: China's FOREX now is already 500 billion (not yet including HongKong's 200 billion), money is not a issue for Chinese military, technology China is catching up also fastly.
3. About Russia:
I agree with you, basically your view is again same as mine, as I especially pointed out: Huge Nukes.
4. About USA after 2025:
With EU controlling Euro Continent, Russia controls big Russia, China control Far East, where is the SIGNIFICANT power influence of USA in the world?
Middle East?
All the EU, Russia, China will mess into M.E. matter, USA's influence will decline for sure. Also, not forget Iran. If Iran gets Nukes in coming years, we can all forget M.E.
Africa?
Who wants Africa that much? And I think Africa will be EU's area again.
America Continent, yes, only this continent is yours, but don't forget Brazil will not pick that forever, so what you basically can do in this Continent is Bully Canada lol
This message has been edited by HBN2025 on May 3, 2004 3:02 AM
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hopefully they will be concerned at being surrounded by hostile countries. Burma, Pakistan to anme a few. India will be supressed if we continue to feed those 2 countries money and weapons. then we can let go. Lets hope that India willr emain pacifist still... thye could go a long way in 2025...
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The only country that threats Canada is USA i would say. I believe that the size of Canada with the population of the united states would make Canada a serious power in years to come, but this will take a very long time... true enough the National populations of countries like Germany, France, and UK, have a population ranging from 56 Million - 92 Million, Canada right now has a population of about 31 Million, With suitable military spending Canada can become a great power.
Canada has the potential to become a great power and increase the strength of the west.
my two cents
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In terms of its absolute dominance of global affairs, the USA has declined from its peak during the Clinton years; Russia is no longer governed by a corrupt drunkard and China has been able to assimilate virtually all key technologies to modernise itself indigenously and has built up substantial ForEx reserves. While a strong case can be made that American diplomatic power has declined severely, the fact is that the USA still has the world's most powerful military and largest economy.
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@ HBN ,the US will be THE dominant power on the global stage for the majority of the remainder of this century.Assuming/deferring power on the ' stage ' doesn't happen overnight.Its a long ascendency to the top rung and you have to have a little ' luck ' along the way as well.I can guarantee you China may emerge as more than a regional power in Asia,but it won't be able to ' task ' the US as quickly as you have led yourself to believe.
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1. I didn't say and don't think the China will replace USA in short time even in 2050 in the Global Stage. I think China can well replace completely the influence of USA of today in ASIA in 2050.
2. In my first post I am talking about USA's decline in the context of Big Powers of EU, CHINA, RUSSIA, INDIA etc. By this "combined" Power (not allies), the influence of USA on world affaires will be minimilized.
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Well i don't think EU will be stronger in the future.
I think EU facing huge challenge in the short and the long terms.
US will maintain it power because of its advances in the tech and science.
But it is true that more countries will be huge force, mostly economic force.
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USA will stay Very Strong for a very long time, even forever. But it is now already getting more and more difficult for USA to push her Will to others.
I am not very optimistish about EU, but in the military aspect, if EU makes a Decision on some international issue, EU can deploy a Large Force far away and Pushes her Will to others (of course weak nations).
Again about EU:
I do see there is a chance that EU will break out if the internal conflicts inside EU turn urgly.
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"USA will stay Very Strong for a very long time, even forever. But it is now already getting more and more difficult for USA to push her Will to others."
Agree with that.
"I am not very optimistish about EU, but in the military aspect, if EU makes a Decision on some international issue, EU can deploy a Large Force far away and Pushes her Will to others (of course weak nations)."
Disagree with that.
EU have potential to become military power but i dont think they really wont it.
They have the tech and the ability to develop sophisticate equipments but they
do not.
The last thing i see EU doen is start to increase the defense budget.
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Hey Paljoey, great to see you here! Now, if I may rebutt some of your comments:
the US will be THE dominant power on the global stage for the majority of the remainder of this century.
Militarily perhaps, but economically I am not so sure. The USA faces some formidable economic hurdles to say the least, specifically its huge trade and budgetary deficits. For now these problems are mitigated by the fact the US dollar is the de-facto world currency, but should this change (e.g. replacing "petrodollars" with "petroeuros") then the US economy could collapse from its globally dominant position to mere strong in the Americas. Which, in turn, could severely undermine funding for the military.
Assuming/deferring power on the ' stage ' doesn't happen overnight.Its a long ascendency to the top rung and you have to have a little ' luck ' along the way as well.I can guarantee you China may emerge as more than a regional power in Asia,but it won't be able to ' task ' the US as quickly as you have led yourself to believe.
I generally agree with this. For China to leapfrog the US it would take a combination of rapid Chinese progress and a accelerated decline of the US and other luck, i.e. numerous natural diasters in the USA and China discovering a revolutionary technology vital to the world's economy AND keeping a monopoly on it during the formative years; for example, efficient hydrogen fuel technology or nuclear fusion. And do not discount the EU neither, especially if they can, by some miracle, make a common foreign and military policy AND achieve strong economic progress.
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USA is just a mess of all immigrants, some day it may lead to huge internal social problems, especially from the African ex-slaves, they may be Masters in this Continent, so you will have Cival Wars to sort the problems out.
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USA is just a mess of all immigrants, some day it may lead to huge internal social problems, especially from the African ex-slaves, they may be Masters in this Continent, so you will have Cival Wars to sort the problems out.
HBN, thats just stupid to say, especially when you dont know the internal affairs of this country....U keep reading american history of 1851....
blacks and whites in this country are bonding together and each generation even stronger.....where the hell did you get that idea,,
id guess from your nightmares that u want to see america have problems and break apart,so in your head every little annoying thing will become a dream...
Keep dreaming....
what about a revolution....
what about Chinese from Chinatown in New York taking over Manhattan and destroy the entire american economy,also the Cubans in MIAMI ......
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"dont make me laugh. ALL Russia HAS is its nukes... nothing else. It cant project power, and much of its arsenal is rusting in disrepair."
u better keep laughing and be flooded with ur propaganda...still dreaming, can´t see that russia is no longer in yeltsin hands...those new topol missiles, new akulas, military exercise, etc, being added in russia´s inventory r crap...
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I totally agree with ILLIRIA. In the USA there are 3 main racial groups, Whites/Blacks/Hispanic....
There are a lot of immigrants in Canada but only in BC with Oriental people, and everything in Ontario.
I couldnt see a civil war happening but i could see major racial confrontations around the country. Politically i could see the whites being racist when deciding future government officials.
You could see problems in the southern states
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When certain minorities become bigger in numbers, they want more political power, but how to share the power btw different races inside a country, may lead to racial conflicts socially.
But Civil War is almost not possible, you need a real "Base" to support the CW, well in a country like US where people are mixed among each other, it is completely not possible.
Mostly, there will be Major Social Unrest, no Civil War.
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There are a lot of immigrants in Canada but only in BC with Oriental people, and everything in Ontario.
You are very mistaken! Come to Montréal and you will find a lot of Arab, Greek, Italian, Jewish, Indian (i.e. from India) and others. Go to Sherbrooke and you will find quite a few Serbs, Africans and some Arabs, with similar demographics in Québec City.
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I did read it. and Montreal is like Toronto in the sence that many immigrants live close by to other immigrants of the same origin. So your seeing the clumps of people and not the many individuals in the entire population and in the entire country.
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