K. Gajendra Singh
PART II
Israel guilty in northern Iraq unless proved innocent.
When Erdogan publicly criticized Ariel Sharon's policies in Occupied Territories accusing Israel of "state terrorism" members of his ruling AKP, were even harsher, lambasting U.S. policies too in Iraq. The Turkish-Israeli relationship reached a low point. Erdogan turned down an invitation to visit Israel and temporarily withdrew his ambassador and consul general from Israel.
Then the New Yorker revelations made the simmering differences public. Turks were aware of Israeli activities in northern Iraq. On June 23, the Israeli ambassador to Turkey, Pini Aviv, denied the New Yorker report that Israel took advantage of the U.S. occupation of Iraq by expanding Israeli presence in northern Iraq. He reassured the Turkish Foreign Ministry that Israel had decided long ago not to meddle in Iraqi affairs.
Foreign Minister Gul accepted the Israeli denials. "The Israelis tell us those allegations are not true. But everybody understands the regional and Turkish sensitivity on this issue, so we have to believe what we are told," the semi-official Anatolia news agency quoted Gul as saying. "I hope our trust [of Israel] won't prove wrong," he added.
Turkey's problem with its own Kurds
Turkey has serious problems with its own Kurds, who form 20 percent of the population. But after 5-years of comparative peace and quiet in Turkey's southeast, there is now some upsurge in violent activity. A Kurdish rebellion since 1984 against the Turkish state led by Abdullah Ocalan from the Marxist Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) has cost over 35,000 lives, including 5,000 soldiers. With a third of the Turkish army tied up in the southeast, the cost of countering the insurgency at its height amounted to between $6-8 billion a year.
When ever there has been chaos and instability in northern Iraq, as during the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s or after the 1991 Gulf war, PKK activity peaked in Turkey. The rebellion died down after the arrest and trial of Ocalan in 1999, when a ceasefire was declared by the PKK. After a Turkish court commuted to life imprisonment the death sentence passed on Ocalan in 2002 and Parliament granted rights for the use of the Kurdish language, some of the root causes of the Kurdish rebellion were removed. TV broadcasts in Kurdish have already begun. Until the mid-1980s even using the word Kurd was taboo and could even lead to imprisonment.
Turkey fears that any moves to bolster Kurdish autonomy in Iraq could pave the way to the formation of a Kurdish state in Iraq and eventually fuel separatism among its own Kurds. Turkey also uses the pretext of protecting the rights of its ethnic cousins the Turkmen, traditionally settled around Kirkuk.
Olmert's visit to Ankara
Ehud Olmert is an influential figure in the Israeli Cabinet and is in charge of the ministries of industry, trade and labor. Apart from a meeting with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, he had a "friendly, sincere and serious discussion" with Gul. Olmert said that "Gul repeated again the commitment of Turkey to carry on relations with Israel on a friendly basis as in the past." Olmert added that Israeli officials would soon visit Turkey to continue the dialogue that we started. He also assured the Turkish leaders that Israel was not engaged in any relationship with Iraqi Kurds in northern Iraq that could jeopardize Turkish interests.
Gul made no public comments but many analysts believe that Turkey is reassessing relations that were so close in the past. Erdogan offered a warm reception to Syria's visiting prime minister, Naji al-Otri hours before Olmert's arrival which Abdullah said was just a coincidence. There was an important Iranian delegation too in town.
Olmert played down Erdogan's outbursts and his not being able to meet with him in an interview on CNN-Turk television. "The two countries enjoy economic relations that are constantly growing deeper. Our relations are stable and will keep on growing. Israel wants to maintain its strategic ties with Turkey," said Olmert. He also denied reports that Israeli agents were operating in northern Iraq and provided training to Iraqi Kurdish peshmergas. "Israel has no relations with Kurds in northern Iraq. Turkish authorities know all about the details. We want a united Iraq. We would never act against the interests of Turkey," Olmert told CNN-Turk.
In Olmert's talks with Gul, apart from bilateral relations, the two sides focused on Turkey`s role in the Middle East peace process and recent developments. Olmert said that Israel considered Turkey a powerful force for stability in the Middle East. "Turkey would play an important role and would be a great power in the region," he added. Olmert also informed Gul about plans for the Israeli army withdrawal from the Gaza Strip but cautioned that preparations would require some time. "One must understand that pulling out of the settlements is not a simple operation. It has to be carefully prepared, and it takes time. We are in favor of accelerating the preparations anyway if it is possible, so we shall see," he said.
Gul on the other hand said: "Sustainable peace in the Middle East should be provided immediately. Turkey is ready to do its best," Gul reiterated Turkey`s readiness to mediate with a view to finding a solution to the Middle East conflict.
Olmert told the daily Sabah that Israel proposed setting up a telephone hotline between Israel and Turkey to help avoid further tensions between the two allies. Israel was willing to give detailed information about their policies on a daily basis.
Yilmaz Oztuna wrote in Turkiye: "Rescuing Palestinians from oppression and forging Arab-Israeli peace is a `mission impossible.' Former U.S. President Bill Clinton couldn't manage it. This knot won't be untied anytime soon. We don't have the power to be a Middle East peace broker. Even if we had this would go against our interests. Anyway, what Middle East country would ask us to serve as mediator? These are hard political realities, not stuff for romantics and idealists."
Yes, but the Turkish offer to mediate in the Middle East is a policy change brought in by the Erdogan government, which earlier was of benign neglect. Once annoyed when told that there were El Al planes in Istanbul, former Turkish President Turgut Ozal told the visiting Saudi foreign minister that it was Turkish policy not to meddle in disputes amongst its former subjects.
Olmert meets with Turkish Media
Olmert was more assertive in his breakfast meeting with Turkish journalists. When asked whether Turkey would undertake a role to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, Olmert said that Israel was carrying out unilateral action (withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West bank) as setting up a dialogue would be a waste of time. It was to change the situation in the region. Neither Turkey nor the United States could do much adding that Turkey would play an important role in the future to provide stability and promote democracy in the region. Stressing that the unilateral withdrawal of Israel from the Gaza Strip was of historic importance, Olmert stressed that it was being achieved under the Likud leadership.
When questioned on relations between Israel and Syria, Olmert said that Israel gave priority to withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and formation of the coalition government. Asked about the West Bank barrier, recently ruled as a violation of international laws by the International Court of Justice, Olmert said it was purely a defensive measure. "Once the terror ends, the fence will be removed. The fence is reversible, death is not." This is the standard Israeli line.
Olmert and his Turkish counterpart for the Joint Economic Committee meeting, Agriculture and Rural Affairs Minister Sami Guclu, set an ambitious goal of doubling the two-way trade. Olmert said that an effort would be made to create a better investment climate for the Turkish companies, which were doing well in Israel. He showed interest in the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) (the project is in Turkey's Kurdish region). Other areas identified for cooperation were in technology, telecommunication, agriculture and infrastructure.
Recent changes in Turkey
Prime minister Erdogan's AK party emerged from the ashes of four Islamic parties, banned earlier by the secular establishment led by the armed forces, but it now feels more secure. Taking advantage of the Europe Union requirement to harmonize Turkey's system to the Copenhagen criteria, AKP has successfully sidelined the military, which had exercised power through its domination of the National Security Council (MGK). From a top policy making forum, MGK has now been reduced to an advisory role. Compared to earlier regimes perceived as corrupt, AKP has further strengthened itself by following transparent governance. It did very well in the April municipal elections.
There is a clear erosion in the strategic relationship between Turkey and Israel which denotes a decline of the Turkish military in politics, said Amnon Barzilie in Haa'rez. A decision to put Turkey on a course towards EU membership would strengthen Erdogan, and weaken the military, according to the Israeli Defense Ministry. EU membership would mean that the Turkish government would wield all its influence to make arms deals with EU countries instead of Israel.
Since 1996, when the strategic dialogue between Israel and Turkey began, numerous deals were signed with the Israeli arms industry in order to "punish" EU countries, which refused EU membership to Turkey, the Israeli defense establishment says. In December, the heads of the EU will decide on a date for Turkey to begin accession talks. While full membership is unlikely soon, some via media would be found with Turkey coming closer to EU policies
According to this analysis an EU decision to delay membership for Turkey would strengthen the Turkish military which could even depose Erdogan and call for fresh elections. One of the first moves would then be a large arms deal with Israel. Now, the Turkish military has no choice but to sit tight. Erdogan's harsh criticism of Israel's actions in the territories was a powerful expression of that change. But Turkey still looks at Israel as its partner in this part of the world and, therefore, where security and economic interests are concerned, there would be no change for the worse. Israeli defense analysts noted that the U.S. sees strategic importance in Turkey's joining the EU, as it regards Turkey as a model to prove that there is no contradiction between a Muslim state and a democratic one.
Dr. Alon Liel, chairman of the Turkey-Israel Chamber of Commerce believed that the Turkish army is getting weaker, but that the Defense Ministry is suffering from fixed ideas and indifference. "It's true that in the short term Turkey's entrance into the EU will harm arms sales to Israel but the implications for the Middle East will be so dramatic that in the final analysis it will work to benefit Israel," Liel said. This is a farfetched analysis.
Without question, the Iraq war and, in particular, the developments in northern Iraq have kindled a rapprochement between Turkey and Iran and Turkey and Syria in spite of U.S. opposition. Turkey now pursues a strategy of strengthening its ties with the countries in the region. Since AKP's coming to power two years ago, Turkey has strengthened relations with other eastern countries, while making all efforts to fulfill the Copenhagen criteria in an attempt to join the EU. EU countries to some extent, are trying to maintain their relationship with Tehran and Damascus. A Turkish diplomat said that this should be evaluated, not as opposition to the United States, but as a result of the recent developments.
India-Israel relations
Of course relations between India and Israel would now remain unobtrusive and in low key. Even the Bhartiya Janta party led Indian government had balanced Sharon's September visit last year by receiving a week earlier Palestinian Foreign Minister Nabil Sha'ath as President Yasser Arafat was under siege. Two days before Sharon's visit a senior Indian official said, "We accept and recognize Yasser Arafat as the President of Palestine."
There were many articles written against the Sharon visit and his policies in the Indian media. Opposition parties from the left of the centre i.e. the communist parties; the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal Party and the Janata Dal Party participated in protests against the visit. The Congress party, then in opposition, did not join in the protests but made it clear that the party's position of supporting the Palestine cause and an independent state of Palestine remained undiluted.
US-Israeli-Indian axis
The idea of the so called tripartite U.S.-Israeli-Indian axis was mooted after the September 11 attacks in America and was publicly broached by India's national security adviser, Brajesh Mishra in Washington at the annual meeting of the American Jewish Committee, where many American congressmen were also present. After emphasizing the similarities between the three countries, he said: "India, the U.S. and Israel have some fundamental similarities. We are all democracies, sharing a common vision of pluralism, tolerance and equal opportunity. Stronger India-U.S. relations and India-Israel relations have (therefore) a natural logic." He then called for the establishment of a U.S.-Israel-India axis to fight "the menace of global terrorism" by military means, i.e. "fight terror with terror."
The proposal was warmly welcomed by U.S. officials and the pro-Israeli lobby. Jews and Indian Americans also came together in the U.S. Despite their obvious differences, the alliance has the potential to increase the clout of the two communities of about 5.2 million Jews and 1.8 million Indians, but highly educated, affluent and attached to democratic homelands facing what they increasingly view as a common enemy. But how much influence has it exercised over the U.S. on India's core problem of cross border terrorism?
Ed Blanche wrote in Beirut's The Daily Star on July 17, in India, the demise of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in parliamentary elections in May was seen as potentially a major setback for Israel's plans for extending its influence into the subcontinent to help contain Pakistan's nuclear and ballistic missile programs and into the energy-rich Muslim republics of Central Asia in conjunction with the Americans.
The BJP had become a major buyer of Israeli arms and counter-intelligence expertise and had forged unprecedented ties with the Jewish state. The new government under the Congress Party, which throughout the Cold War was staunchly pro-Arab and has said it will take a more even-handed approach to the Middle East, is not expected to be so pro-Israel. The new government unveiled its policy road map on May 27, which said that India would remain committed to the cause of a Palestinian homeland and that new impetus would be given to diplomatic and economic relations with Arab states.
A recent scandal in India's premier intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), in which a senior officer recruited by the CIA defected as security authorities closed in on him, has raised fears that the U.S. and Israeli intelligence services have penetrated India's intelligence establishment.
Asian intelligence sources told The Daily Star that Israel's Mossad, as well as the CIA, sought to recruit Indian intelligence operatives attending seminars in Israel in recent years and apparently succeeded in some cases. All this is likely to further damage Israel-India relations.
American and Israeli analysts believe that the Congress Party, which restored relations with Israel in 1992, will issue some tough statements, "then things will settle down." But even the Americans are bracing for some policy shifts by the Congress-led government in New Delhi, which relies on the support of leftists, who oppose proximity to the U.S. and the occupation of Iraq, to survive. Some U.S. officials in Washington, along with Jewish organizations, are deeply concerned about a rupture in Indian-Israeli relations that were enthusiastically supported by the Bush administration, especially the hawks in the Pentagon, in part to help counterbalance China, America's emerging strategic rival.
There is no expectation at this time that either Ankara or New Delhi plan to sever relations with Israel. But it is clear that their relationships with the Jewish state are becoming more hard-headed, particularly because of Israeli heavy-handedness with the Palestinians and because of Iraq. Whether this will result in reining in Sharon remains to be seen, but some big changes may be in the offing."
Conclusion
If the U.S. cannot enforce its will, how can Israel hope to shape the region. Disruption and chaos, yes. And if the U.S. were forced to withdraw even with a face saving solution with help from the international community, it might then look for a scapegoat.
If Israel wants to play a role in creating an independent Kurdistan, it would become a willing tool in the regional balance at Americas behest. But such a development would be inimical to Turkey and would not be accepted by it. By now it should be clear that the developments in Iraq would be determined by the growing insurgency now blossoming into full-fledged resistance for removing the U.S. occupation and for freedom. Certainly the Bush administration and even those opposing it can see the strength, depth and resilience of the Iraqis who refuse to be subjugated. How would the dice roll for Iraqi Kurds is difficult to predict. But a break up of Iraq would have unforeseen consequences even beyond the region. The struggle has only begun in full earnest.
With a stock of nearly 100 nuclear bombs as reported in the media, Egypt shackled and thus neutralized and with a U.S. veto on demand, Israel has shown itself as a wild and irresponsible state in the region, bent upon creating chaos.
K. Gajendra Singh, served as the Indian Ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan in 1992-96. Prior to that, he served as the ambassador to Jordan (during the 1990-91 Gulf war), Romania and Senegal. He is currently the chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.
Note: The views and opinions expressed in this article are the views of the writer and by no means reflect the views held by TDN.
email: Gajendrak@hotmail.com
