First posted to China Resurgent Forum on Sept. 2, 2004 at the following link:

http://www.network54.com/Forum/thread?forumid=238054&messageid=1096726271&lp=1096726271

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China, India, and Japan to eclipse Western dominance - Mahathir.

In a recent speech Mahathir, the former prime minister of Malaysia, said that China, India, and Japan will increase their combined influence in the world to such an extent as to eclipse the dominance of the West that has been such a decisive factor in the development of Asia in the last couple hundred of years. He said that China especially has the potential to challenge the dominance of the West in terms of economics and technologies. He said that even though China is still relatively poor having a per capita GDP of only some $1,000 as compared to Malaysia’s some $4,000, it has the potential to increase its per capita GDP to some $10,000 or more by 2020.

As I have been pointing out in numerous posts, the GDP of China as measured according to the nominal exchange rate is unreliable. Since the Chinese nominal exchange rate is pegged by government decree, it can be changed by the Chinese government at any time. If the Chinese government raised the value of the RMB to its full PPP (purchasing power parity) value, then the per capita GDP of China can become some $5,000 overnight. And China’s per capita GDP would exceed Malaysia’s by some $1,000. Furthermore, in order for China to increase its per capita GDP to $10,000 based on the nominal exchange rate, the real per capita GDP based on the PPP value would have to increase to some $50,000. That would exceed the American per capita GDP by some $15,000. This is obviously unlikely by 2020 if ever since the American economy is already highly efficient using all the cutting edge technologies. Incidentally, this means that at some point in time, China must increase its exchange rate to its PPP value to reflect its natural relationship with the dollar. In fact I’ve been calling for the Chinese government to raise the exchange rate to the full PPP value within 7 to 10 years. Unfortunately, it seems the CCP economists are a bunch of near morons who cannot seem to understand the difference between the nominal exchange rate and the PPP valuation. (Please see my other posts on the necessity for China to raise the value of the RMB.)

I have proposed 12 guidelines for the rapid advancement of the Chinese economy. The main point is that China must produce at least 1 million science and engineering doctorates within 10 years and then proceed to invent cutting edge technologies funded by at least 3% of China’s GDP that will surpass the Western technologies. Once China has succeeded to do this, then it is just a natural step for China’s technologies to surpass the Western technologies. And with the most advanced technologies, the Chinese economy will naturally become the most efficient and thus become bigger than the European and American economies combined.

Mahathir also criticized the Malays for their reliance on the government to give them special rights and privileges. He was referring to the fact that the Malays are given special trading licenses and various economic rights that are denied to the Chinese. However, he said the Malays once given these special rights immediately turned around and sold these rights to the Chinese. So that in the end it is the Chinese who are benefiting from these special rights. He pointed out that if the Malays had taken advantage of the special rights granted to them by the government over the last several decades, the Malays as a racial group should own some 40% to 50% of the assets of Malaysia. But the truth is the Malays only own some 20% of the Malaysian assets. And 17% of those 20% are owned by corporations. This means Malays as individuals own only some 3% of the Malaysian assets. I think at least 50% of the Malaysians are Malays. Therefore, it means that with 50% of the population, the Malays own only 3% of the Malaysian assets. On the other hand, the Chinese constitute only some 30% or less of the Malaysian population and probably own some 70% or more of the Malaysian assets.

From the above statistics it is very glaringly obvious that the policy of giving special rights and privileges to the Malays have been a miserable failure. On the one hand it has created a serious racial antagonism between the Malay majority and the Chinese minority. The Malay politicians have demonized the Chinese as sleazy businessmen who have cheated the Malays and kept them poor and therefore as the honest and rightful owners of the Malaysian nation the Malays have the moral right to deny equal business opportunities to the ethnic Chinese-Malaysians. Predictably this has created a backlash of resentment from the Chinese portion of the Malaysian population. Up to now the Chinese-Malaysians have been relatively docile. But with the growing economic, political, and military strength of China, it will become inevitable for the Chinese-Malaysians to demand more equal treatment under the Malaysian laws. Therefore, if the Malays are smart, they should immediately realize that the days of their unconscionable mistreatment of the Chinese-Malaysians are over. And the smartest thing for the Malays to do is to recognize that a genuinely friendly relationship between the two major races will be best for the future of Malaysia and by extension for the Malays.

Looking at Singapore which also has a large Malay minority, it is obvious that the Malays in Singapore are earning higher incomes and enjoying higher standard of living than the Malays in Malaysia. This is a good indication that once the Chinese are given full and equal rights and privileges the Malaysian economy would grow much faster. With a richer Malaysian economy overall, the Malay portion of the population will also benefit by the increased job opportunities in factories, banks, insurance companies, etc. With a much more friendly racial relationship, the number of Chinese tourists will inevitably increase thus bringing in more tourist yuans. And with the inevitable dominance of the Chinese economy the Chinese yuan will inevitably replace the dollar and the yen. With a much more friendly racial relationship and a more congenial investment environment, more investment money will inevitably come from China to stimulate trade between China and Malaysia, especially with the Fujian province from where many Chinese-Malaysians have come and still have relatives in Fujian. Incidentally, I must say it is always an emotional experience to hear people standing next in line or sitting in the next table talk in my native Fujianese dialect which I don’t hear anywhere else in the world. The increased tourism and investment from China will obviously provide more jobs for the Malays thus improving their incomes.

I hope the Malay politicians will finally see the light and immediately move to get rid of the current policy of demonizing the Chinese and implement full equality within Malaysia. I hope they will get rid of all policies that favor Malay over Chinese in terms of quotas in universities or in terms of immigration and investment in Malaysia. For example, the Malay government still is unwilling to allow signs in Chinese to be posted anywhere in Malaysia. And while a few signs in Chinese can now be seen in the Kuala Lumpur Airport, it is still relegated to very insignificant positions. It is now time for the Malays to expunge their Sinophobia and establish a new era of genuine inter-racial harmony that will be the only chance to make Malaysia strong and the Malays rich. Otherwise, Malaysia cannot grow much beyond its current level and the only people who will suffer the most in the end are the Malays themselves since it is obvious that the Chinese are prospering anyway even under the current hostile social-economic environment. It is very clear from the above statistics that the only people who are benefiting from the unequal social and economic rights are a small handful of Malay politicians who give themselves special deals that they can sell to the Chinese. And the biggest losers are the common Malay people who never get to have any special deals that they could sell to the Chinese. For the common Malay people the best policies is to give the Chinese equal rights so that they could advance the Malaysian economy which in the end will provide more economic opportunities to the common Malay people.

I leave the Malays with one last thought. Some Islamic Malay people have boasted that Malaysia is the most advanced Moslem country in the world on a per capita basis as well as in overall culture and technologies. These people should realize that Malaysia is also the Moslem country with the largest proportion of Chinese. It is obvious therefore that it is the non-Moslem Chinese that have made Malaysia the most advanced Moslem country. The Malays should reflect on this long and hard.

"you are judged by what you do not by what you say"

My point is that China can ensure that at least 200 million people in the most advanced large cities and the surrounding areas to reach USD 20,000 in 2020.

Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Qingao, Dalian, Fuzou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hangzou etc those large cities can all reach USD 20,000 easily in 2020. But hel, we have patience, so let's make it in 2025 then just like my HBN2025 in that year CHINA attacks lol

you are judged by what you do not by what you say

That is true and the West hasn't done a whole hell of a lot in Asia recently.  While terrorism is that only thing that Bush talks about, Asians and others are far more interested in promoting economic and scientific development.  While Bush expands US military bases (occupation?) all over Asia, China is expanding its investments, purchases and other cooperation (and hence genuine good will) with these same countries.

liang welcome to the forum and thanks for your contribution.

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Thanks for the invitation and the welcome. I post mostly on economic subjects. This may be off topic for your forum. If you don't mind the off topic, I'll be more than happy to post in your forum. Again, thanks.

I can imagine India and China rising to challenge the west... but not Japan. Japan's demography is far too gloomy.

United We Stand.



"Now, while still pursuing the method of realising our overall strategic concept, I come to the crux of what I have travelled here to say. Neither the sure prevention of war, nor the continuous rise of world organisation will be gained without what I have called the fraternal association of the English-speaking peoples. This means a special relationship between the British Commonwealth and Empire and the United States. Thus, whatever happens, and thus only, shall we be secure ourselves and able to work together for the high and simple causes that are dear to us and bode no ill to any. Eventually there may come—I feel eventually there will come—the principle of common citizenship, but that we may be content to leave to destiny, whose outstretched arm many of us can already clearly see.

Winston Churchill

I dont see India or Japan Rising to challenge the west. If anything India needs the west's help in advancing their society as right now it is overpopulated and things such as malnutrion/sanitation are on concern, they do not have the method to fight a midern war anyways. and Japan is an ally i do not see them challenging the west.

If anything India needs the west's help in advancing their society as right now...

I disagree, a mix of indigenous Indian, Chinese and Russian technologies can also improve their knowledge base.  Culturally, the West has nothing to teach to India's 5000 year+ society.

it is overpopulated and things such as malnutrion/sanitation are on concern, they do not have the method to fight a midern war anyways.

It is true that India has some major social hurdles to overcome but their military, in spite of its patchwork composition, has some excellent kit.  Its Su-30s recently beat USAF F-15Cs in an exercise; India is purchasing Phalcons, possibly the best AWACS in the world today; and India has jointly developped the Yakhont AShM with Russia, something the West does not have in its arsenal.

and Japan is an ally i do not see them challenging the west.

Japan's economic day in the sun is gone, the only way they can possibly improve its economy is by hitching on to China's, and eventually India's, economy.  But this is increasingly in doubt as Japan continues to refuse owning up to its WWII genocide and continues to demonise China.

"India's 5000 year+ society"

Youre telling that a society like India's is better than a first world countries society.
Just because they have had a society around 5000 years. which is doubtful in my opinion doesnt mean that is it better or more advanced than the res of the world.

"India Su-30's beat F-15I in an excersise"

Its a military excersise, i dont know if youve ever been on a military excerise but ill tell you it is never the same as real life, so many factors contribute to false ends.

Do not preach to me telling me India is a "powerful" military nation. they are a bunch of expendible low quality forces for a more....'noticed' force to be reconed with such as China or Japan.

Youre telling that a society like India's is better than a first world countries society.  Just because they have had a society around 5000 years. which is doubtful in my opinion doesnt mean that is it better or more advanced than the res of the world.

Culturally there is nothing India has to learn from Western societies.  And the cronism, nepotism, excessive materialism and wastefulness, traits that are very prevalent in Western societies, are not exactly good things either.

Its a military excersise, i dont know if youve ever been on a military excerise but ill tell you it is never the same as real life, so many factors contribute to false ends.

FYI, I have served in the armed forces before and yes I wholeheartedly agree that a military exercise will never be a substitute for the real thing.  My point was simply to state that India has some good quality equipment and, because they defeated the USAF in exercise at least, India does indeed have some competant personnel.

Do not preach to me telling me India is a "powerful" military nation. they are a bunch of expendible low quality forces for a more....'noticed' force to be reconed with such as China or Japan.

India does have extensive experience in mountain warfare, often fighting insurgents in Pakistan.  Don't get me wrong, India still has some major deficiencies in its equipment (i.e. too many MiG-21s, patchwork of old and new ships from UK, France, Russia, patchwork of various tanks, etc.)  But India certainly cannot be successfully invaded by the UK, France or even Japan.

Thank you Diunei, for your support.

Western Commander, I suggest you learn something about Sanatana Dharma, maybe read up on real philosophy (not the Greek $hit you glorify, cause that's the only Western thing that stands upto some standard) like Upanishads or Puranas or Vedantas. You will see that democracy is steeped within Indian tradition.

And what India and China have done is without World Bank help, thank you very much. Only time the West helped us was to bring about Green Revolution (although half the work was Japanese), which I think was something you owed us for having carried you through two world wars and countless other expenses, at the cost of our suffering, our poverty, and atrocities committed on us. Learn before you open your big mouth.

Your army is coming to India to learn how to fight in jungles, in mountains. They are coming to us to learn how to fight an insurgency without indiscriminately killing people. I wonder how long it would take America to pussy out of Kashmir. LOL, if the Indian public and army were like the Americans, I wouldn't be calling myself Indian right now, I'd probably call myself an Arab or Chinese!! You guys are notorious for pussying out of a conflict, Vietnam, Iraq are examples.

What the **** is the big deal about staying in a country for 50 years? GO ahead, occupy that piece of **** for 50 years, you don't have the tenacity. You have shock and awe, but the turtle always beat the hare, remember that!!

http://india_resource.tripod.com/hist-2nation.html

I suggest you get with the times and do not preach your Indian gospel to me, I am not American so do not tell me we pussy out on conflicts, I know many strong nations would not be able to invade India...The country is like trying to fit 100 people into a sea container. Who are you talking about pussing out on fights, If it wasnt for the americans doing what they are doing someone else would be doing it, maybe another great power, everyone judges the great power because they are not in power, jealousy.

For this reason, Hinduism which is based on these texts as the foundation is known by the name Sanathana Dharma -- the eternal way. These texts are the Vedas. The portions of the Vedas which describe the principles of spiritual life are the Upanisads. Though there are innumerable Upanisads, all the concepts explained in them can be found in 10 of them, for which Sri Sankara, one of the brightest stars in the Indian spiritual sky, has written explanatory notes. All the other Upanisads put the same concepts covered in these, in different words.

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This crap you call Hinduism from which you Indians bragg about your philosophy is years of light behind the Real Philosophy(its real name deriving from greek-love of wisdom)

Maybe if you try to learn real greek philosophy which is endless, maybe you will stop worshipping Ratts and maybe your society will not be so backwords...maybe if you had educated yourself enough just like the Romans did, the Arabs later and they had to bring it back to Europe for  the Rainessance with the revival of greek culture, and science .....maybe your society could have progressed just like the western did and the arabs.

  

And this is Greek philosophy for you:










"Look, I can't change the way I think
And I can't change the way I am
But if I offended you?
Good cause I don't give a ****"
- Slim Shady



"Yes of course this is about Palestine, cause that's the core issue in the whole world. That's what drives the Muslims to kill each other in Afghanistan, to fight the Iran/Iraq war, invade Kuwait, butcher each other in Syria, and Lebanon, to terrorize, India, Russia, Serbia, the Philippine Islands, Nigeria, Kenya, Indonesia, and Macedonia. Did I leave anywhere else out where Muslims are dying for Palestine?

Like the Nazis before, you Arabs believe that everyone is Jew obsessed. Unable to figure out why you can't succeed and coexist on this planet you blame the Jew. While you Pals starve, die, and rant about the Jews your oil rich brothers squander the Arab inheritance on blonde whores and old military junk. Instead of world class cities and culture you have Jihad and raw sewage in your streets because the Jews right?"