First test on Wednesday and I think this series could be as evenly matched as 2005.
My fear is that we have over-rated England and under-estimated the Aussies who tend to have a habit of raising their game for the bigger occasion and I think the spinner thing is a bit of a smokescreen as they don't need to pick Hauritz if they can use North, Katich and Clarke who look more likely to get wickets than Hauritz or Panesar.
If you have four strong seamers with variety and reverse swing then I think the attacks are pretty evenly balanced. Johnson is a real talent and Lee has found form in English conditions at the right time. Is Flintoff as good as he was 4 years ago? Not with the bat and the jury is out with the ball.
So series prediction?
Well if the weather does not intervene then we have a close series on our hands and I think it will be 2-1.... but not convinced I know who to!
My heart says England but my head says the Aussies.
This message has been edited by AlexRoberts on Jul 6, 2009 4:34 PM
We'll win at Cardiff and they'll win at Lords (because they always do..).
After that, it'll depend on injuries and the weather.
I could see it being tied - Aussies retain the Ashes..
If it's gonna spin at Cardiff it will probably also break up and get uneven helping the seamers. The toss will be huge and this first match will go along way to deciding the series.
If the weather doesn't intervene I can't understand where all this ''2-1'' comes from. I'd say, given 25 days of dry weather there will be five results. Given that the best three spinners (and possibly even more)are all English then I hope the ECB has sent scrubbing brushes to every test match groundsman in the country......and Wales!
Play and prepare to our strengths and were stronger than them in the spin department and opening batsmen department. Logic says make hay whilst the sun shines at the top of the order and then spin them out twice later on.
Time will tell, but despite some unimaginative and safety first logic from the selectors recently I think we'll win a very tight series.
I've got a feeling it might end up being a drawn series. Apparently there hasn't been one since the early '70s and as far as I can see the teams are quite evenly matched up.
The openers, Hughes might be the best of the four but I'd take Strauss and Cook over Katitch(sp?). Three and four? Pietersen might be the best of the bunch but I'd certainly say Ponting and Hussey would be the better options than Bopara.
In the bowling stakes, I'd say the Aussie quicks shade it, but it will be advantage England in the spinning department. I reckon Prior just takes it as a batsman/wicketkeeper over Haddin and Flintoff the better all rounder than Watson, that's if the Aussies go for an all rounder.
To me it's pretty close to call and it might just go down to how the lower/middle order batsmen on both sides go. In their two series' against the SAFs, the Aussie mid-lower order were the batsmen that either kept them in the game, or won it for them. Ours, Prior, Flintoff, Broad, Swann, in theory, should be just as good for some runs, but it wouldn't surprise me if that is where the tests are won and loss.
I'm just disappointed the Tests themselves weren't cheaper for tickets and there wasn't more of them up North.
I think it's a great shame that Bret Lee won't be in the first game (or two). If we're going to win, you want it to be against their best team. He's a brilliant bowler and a fine sportsman, and his prescence on the field would have added a lot to the series.
Steve, I have to disagree. I like Lee a lot, but his injury is good news. If Vaughan hadn't been injured in the last Ashes series in Australia, would they have won 5 - 0? You can only try to beat the team that turns up to play.
Weather dependant, I'm going to say a 2-2 draw with the Aussies retaining the Ashes. I put England slight favourites at Cardiff and Edgbaston, Austrailia favourites for Lords and slight favourites at Headingley with the Oval the usual draw. I'm expecting Headingley to be the key Test.
Not sure why there is all the fuss about Lee not playing, he hardly has the best record against England especially in England and last week it was doubtful whether his form was good enough to warrent a place.
I think the Aussies will have to play Hauritz at Cardiff purely because it would have to be questioned why they brought him in the first place. If he doesn't play in Cardiff he won't play all series which is a big waste of a place on the tour especially when they are already being slated in Oz for not bringing a reserve batsman (specifically a opener).
To many imponderables on the England side to confidentally predict a win for them. How long will Flintoff last before breaking down again? Will Flintoff have any influence in any of the games after all his injuries? How good is Bopara, he has scored lots of run so far but none of these against good bowling attacks? How reliable is Englands batting from 5 downwards, again they have scored runs previously but not against good attacks. I think we are ok with the openers, the spin attack and our pace attack is slightly better, but the Aussies batting line up looks on paper a lot stronger. I will go for 3-1 to the Aussies.