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Doing the maths

September 15 2016 at 8:43 PM

Dave Morton  (Login DaveMorton)

I've started a new thread for a topic that has been touched on elsewhere. Now the points situation is known, going into the final round of matches, what are the implications, at both ends of the table?

1. TOP Middlesex 213, Yorks 204, Somerset 203
Ignoring such impossibilities as Middlesex winning but getting no bonus points...

M win - it's their title

Y win - overtake M, but S can take title by winning (against relegated Notts) with just ONE more point than Y.

M and Y draw - S can take the title by winning but need at least to match M's bonus points in the game.

2. MIDDLE (4th and 5th)
Durham need 4 points from their final match to overtake Surrey, who have finished.

3. BOTTOM Lancs 162 play at Warwicks 156, Hants 148 play safe Durham, Notts 121 relegated.

This is horribly complex, but H need to win to survive OR they could just escape with a big bonus-point draw if W are heavily defeated by L.

L are vulnerable, but only if they lose and H win, (or a draw in which W get 7 more points than they do, which is almost impossible, frankly.)

I think that has covered it.

This message has been edited by DaveMorton on Sep 16, 2016 9:41 AM

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(Login WhiteroseDave)

Re: Doing the maths

September 15 2016, 9:56 PM 

Brilliant, thank you. The bottom is every bit as interesting as the top, I can see Hampshire beating a Durham team who are now safe and have nothing to play for this will make the lancs game very interesting if it happens

(Login EastCoastExile)

Re: Doing the maths

September 15 2016, 10:17 PM 

who would have thought four day cricket could be so exciting

(Login WibseySimon55)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 12:08 AM 

I guess that by late Wednesday, Thursday am at the latest, we are likely to know the bonus point situation, and be able to whittle down Dave's possibilities a bit more.

In particular, we'll know if winning our match will win us the title, or if winning won't necessarily be quite enough -- i.e. the title requires us to win, but also depends on whether Somerset win or not.

I don't know about exciting, ECE, it makes my head hurt. There are enough twists and turns in the average 4-day game to make it exciting. This points-based ballet is excruciating, more like.

Ball-Sup (Phil)
(Login ball_sup)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 9:18 AM 

Points deductions for slow over rates have to be brought into this excellent equation.

(Login Fraisse10)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 9:23 AM 

Petersen misses Lancs' last match.

Old Feller
(Login Old_Feller2)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 10:19 AM 

At what stage do we need to take away the number we first thought of?

(Login Spanishnick)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 11:37 AM 

Morton/Vordeman- a striking resemblance I've always thought.
Thank you.That clarifies a situation for me that i would never have had the patience to work out for myself.
Much obliged.

(Login TheLoiner)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 11:43 AM 

I prefer more simplistic terms, we have to win and if we do we'll more than likely be champions

Leg Glance
(Login legglance)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 12:33 PM 

But not if Somerset win with 1 more bonus point than us, hence Dave's excellent analysis spelling out the exact position as it stands now.

I'd rather be certain than 'likely'

Mark Smith
(Login spikeyboy60)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 2:49 PM 

Let's hope the lads play the best game they've ever played,get 24 points and win the title to send Dizzy off on a high

(Login Martinh00)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 3:09 PM 

All conjecture of course but how likely is a maximum bonus points batting points haul at Somerset given recent bowling conditions there?

(Login TheLoiner)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 4:51 PM 

Somerset will probably win but it will be a 19-20 win that's why I'm saying a win for us and we'll be champs


Dave Morton
(Login DaveMorton)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 6:08 PM 

The inescapable conclusion - PETER WAS RIGHT ALL ALONG!

Old Feller
(Login Old_Feller2)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 7:22 PM 

The one thing he was right about was that we should have had a go vs Lancs.
If we lost a couple of wickets we should still have been able to hold out against one of the weakest bowling attacks in the division.

Idle Man
(Login Idle_man)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 7:30 PM 

I agreed. However it's interesting Middlesex took a similarly negative approach to their match at Old Trafford.

(Login ThirdUmpire)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 9:04 PM 

But their game was with only one to go and with them in the box seat so less urgency to take the risk

Idle man
(Login Idle_man)

Re: Doing the maths

September 16 2016, 11:02 PM 

Agreed, but if they had won, it would be all over bar the shouting by now.

(Login Blackpooltyke)

Re: Doing the maths

September 17 2016, 9:03 AM 

Middlesex will probably win the title now with a high scoring draw, even if somerset win.

had they taken a chance against lancs and lost that would not have been the case, any sort of draw would have ended the title to somerset.

lancs needed over 300 in only what was it 43 overs? but they still put buttler in first and had a go at it. We had twice as many overs to score the same amount of runs and never hit a ball in anger.....had we won that game we would now be top and a draw next week would have handed us the title.

We may have failed, but we sure as hell should have tried.

Oh hang on i forgot, the pitch was deteriating....silly me!

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