Financial Contagion: Evolutionary Optimisation of a Multinational Agent-Based Model
Guglielmo Maria Caporale
London South Bank University; Brunel University - Brunel Business School; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)
Antoaneta Serguieva
Brunel Business School, and Brunel University Centre for Empirical Finance
Hao Wu
Brunel University - Centre of Empirical Finance
October 2008
CESifo Working Paper Series No. 2444
Abstract:
Over the past two decades, financial market crises with similar features have occurred in different regions of the world. Unstable cross-market linkages during a crisis are referred to as financial contagion. We simulate crisis transmission in the context of a model of market participants adopting various strategies; this allows testing for financial contagion under alternative scenarios. Using a minority game approach, we develop an agent-based multinational model and investigate the reasons for contagion. Although the phenomenon has been extensively investigated in the financial literature, it has not been studied through computational intelligence techniques. Our simulations shed light on parameter values and characteristics which can be exploited to detect contagion at an earlier stage, hence recognising financial crises with the potential to destabilise cross-market linkages. In the real world, such information would be extremely valuable in developing appropriate risk management strategies.
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