An inconvenient truth
The inconvenient truth, however, is that there are
likely to be extended periods when investors are not
adequately compensated for the higher risk associated
with certain asset classes, such as equities and high
yield corporate bonds. It is this fallout from the global
fi nancial crisis that poses the biggest challenge to
practitioners of modern portfolio theory. We therefore
devote the balance of this report to addressing this
subject. First we explore the continuing need for
implementing a well-defi ned investment process
which includes: a comprehensive investor risk profi le;
an appropriate strategic asset allocation benchmark
refl ective of that risk profi le; a dynamic approach
that allows for tactical biases to be incorporated into
the portfolio; an effi cient process for structuring the
portfolio holdings; and an ongoing monitoring process
which helps ensure that the portfolio remains aligned
with the original objectives.
Start with a disciplined
investment process
It remains our view that a structured investment
process that starts with a thorough understanding of
investors objectives and risk tolerance, and centers
on asset allocation, represents the most promising
approach. Even though the fi nancial market crisis
does highlight some steps along the way that need to
be improved, the overall approach remains sound. It
is worth noting that the dramatic impact of extreme
market events and the tendency for asset correlations
to rise during periods of stress were exacerbated
during the current crisis by increasing complacency
and declining investment discipline among investors in
the lead-up to the critical situation. For instance, it was
not unusual for investors to both reach for incremental
returns and fail to diversify beyond risky assets.
Periodic reassessment of risk profile
and strategic asset allocation
Academic studies have found that a vast majority of
portfolio performance is attributable to the strategic
asset allocation decision. While such studies have
occasionally been misinterpreted, Gary Brinson and
colleagues demonstrated that about 90% of the
variability of returns over time is explained by the initial
benchmark policy weightings.1, 2 It therefore appears
that for investors with longer-term horizons, the mix
of asset classes selected as the strategic allocation is
one of the most crucial elements in the investment
decision-making process. This is why so much time
is spent in the initial process of risk profiling and
choosing an appropriate strategic asset allocation
benchmark. If the initial allocation fairly refl ects the
appropriate mix of assets to meet the investors
longer-term objectives yet remains within acceptable
risk tolerance levels, much of the uncertainty from
asset/liability mismatches can be managed.
All Credit to UBS WMR...
http://www.ubs.com/1/e/wealthmanagement/wealth_management_research.html
Be well all, JW
