Every year I repeat mistakes that I thought I had created unwritten rules for; you know, when you see something during/after a race and say "I've gotta remember that one." Then you forget your brilliant idea about twenty minutes later. This year I thought I'd write them down, and I'd like to hear some others.


Saratoga “angles” and other things to remember:


Trainers specialties-

Linda Rice in turf sprints. (little value left here, though.)

Mike Hushion in sprints, especially with “the Mig” up. Good with firsters, too. Barry Schwartz, main owner.

Rick Violette in sprints, Coa is the go-to gate rider. Very good with firsters. Klaravich Stables, main owner.

Steve Asmussen in sprints. Very good with 2yo firsters. Heiligbrodt Stables, big client.

Stanley Hough with 2yos. Always live, especially for E. Paul Robsham, LLC.

Charlton Baker with NYB sprinters. Ken Ramsey, and Sugar Maple Farm main clients.

Richard Schosberg in sprints, often uses John Velazquez when live.


Jockey notes-

Jorge Chavez is always live on the off-tracks. He’s a “mudder”, and I have no explanation.

Jean-Luc Samyn can still tip out and make a big late run down the middle of the turf course to win. Look for situations where he figures to save ground with a closer in a fast paced race.

Ramon Dominguez is the best turf rider the last few years, with Javier Castellano not far behind.


General rules-

Bobby Frankel at 4-1 or better. Especially on the undercard on big stakes days.

D. Wayne Lukas second time out. Deadly.

Kiaran McLaughlin moving through allowance conditions, and with Stakes runners that belong.

Mark Hennig usually wakes up here, especially for Edward Evans (owner.)

Bill Mott wins early and often, especially on/near his birthday, July 29th.

Tom Bush quietly has a big meet every year. Bet everything he sends out at 2-1 or better.


Bomb squad-

John Hertler, especially with NYBs.

Scott Schwartz, especially for California Dreamin’ Stable, and for his parents (Herbert and Carol.)

Del Carroll III, especially 2nd or third time out, with a distance/rider/or surface change.

Dom Galluscio, mainly with NYBs.


Course tendencies-

Inside trips win 9F dirt races; going 3 or more wide on the clubhouse turn is suicide.

When it has been dry for awhile, and the horses are kicking up dust on the turf, speed is favored, and superior closers cannot get there in time. Soft going results in just the opposite, pace scenarios notwithstanding.

Spped is favored going 5, 5.5, and 6 furlongs on the dirt. At 6.5 and especially 7 fulongs on dirt, off the pace types have a better shot, but still need a favorable pace scenario.


TW

Gary Sciacca on the turf.
He is usually in the money and at a price.

I remember from prior Saratoga Handicappers, and remember it being verified by subsequent performance, that Violette wins at an insane clip with 2yo MCL FTS. He'll win at a decent clip with his MSp FTS, but when he puts one sporting a price tag, the win percentage, if I recall correctly, was better than 60%. I think the value on this one has diminished as well, but who's to say it can't be used as an anchor for a pick-3 or 4 wager than yields a big return.

Schosberg woke up big time last year at the SPa and might be one to watch this year.

Another FTS trainer to watch is Ramon Hernandez (NY Bred, of course). If you see one with Prado up, don't ask questions, just bet it. C. Velasquez has also been aboard at least one of these winners.

We'll miss you up there Travers weekend, GAM. BTW, I didn't see you signed up for the Saratoga Cup Classic yet. Only got another week.

LL

Nice thread Colleen and Tom. As you mentioned, I love those 1 1/8 dirt races with speed on or near the rail. That clubhouse turn hits quick and outside posts often lose valuable ground. It's great to get Dominguez at decent prices up there vs. @ DelPark where he would be favored on a pack mule.

Some of my angles are watching for the shippers: Some trainers of note are Motion(turf), Klesaris, and of course Tagg and Matz. The out of state trained, state bred msw horses with nice works in Jersey,Suffolk and in state F-Lakes ...... often pop at a price.
It is interesting how Saratoga has changed the last few yrs. with more state bred races leading to bigger fields. It is a great place and I enjoy the whole area. - Greg

Tom Williams wrote:

Richard Schosberg in sprints, often uses John Velazquez when live.

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That list of yours Tom is something that I might have compiled myself.

I'll tell you that Mr. Rick "Affirmed Success" Shosberg has a subtle "tell".

He will blowout a horse 3 or 4 panels a week before the race.
If the work is a bullet or near bullet, make sure to include it in the exactas

no matter how poor the horse looks on paper. 

This will be very potent as we move towards the Aqueduct season

and his caliber of stock can compete with the 'lesser" foes.

As for the Spa, I do remember he had a stellar meet percentage-wise

 there without warning about a decade ago.  He does not have a full barn

so his starters will be sparse, but pay attention to the drills - absolutely.

I like to watch for jockeys shipping in for the day, especially if it is their only mount for the day. If they are willing to give up a day at their regular track, I figure there must be a reason.

Hey Otis, that's a solid angle anywhere, but I try not to overplay it at Saratoga. I think a lot of the jocks from Suffolk and Finger Lakes would come in just to get a ride at the Spa. Doesn't mean the horse itself isn't live though. I love the drop from money allowance at a B level track to the mid-level claimers (35-50k) at the Spa.

Always give a careful look at any of the Jersey trainers that ship a horse up from Monmouth. Especially Jimmy Ryerson and Terri Pompay.

I find the jockey shipping in angle even more potent when it is not the feature race of the day.

You might want to take a closer look at some of Lukas' babies especially early on this meet. Lukas had a Storm Cat baby from the family of Fusaichi Pegasus named Cats that was taking a lot of steam at the windows (Lukas even wore his suit to the track that day). Cats was scratched at the gate after Miguel Mena warmed him/her up. Don't know if the horse will resurface at Saratoga. What caught my eye more than anything with this one was the owners: Tabor and Magnier...who hasn't had anything with Lukas in awhile to my knowledge.

Also, Lukas started a full to Grand Slam (Fast Draw). This one took considerable action at Churchill but did not win. I'm guessing that this one will be stronger 2nd time out.

Sloppy wrote:

Always give a careful look at any of the Jersey trainers that ship a horse up from Monmouth. Especially Jimmy Ryerson and Terri Pompay.

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Please add Dennis Manning to the list.
They had Valid Video shipped in from Oceanport to the Spa for a tally.

And a few weeks ago they were second at double digits in a turf race at Belmont Park.

Both were owned by Mac Fehsenfeld.  

There are many general angles to follow in this my favorite and most profitable meet. Here are a few.

Avoid top figure horses coming off one or more recent victories and going off at prohibitive odds, esepcially turfers.

Pay close attention to lightly raced shippers, coming off some dull unimpressive races while fitting the conditions.

Always respect inside speed on two turn turf races.

Respect the tote board in non turf races when one runner, not the logical or morning line favorite, is going off with a 5:1 or higher win/place ratio. A higher ratio is even better. This seldom occurs but when it does bet with confidence.

Bill Mott always wins at the SPA on his birthday, July 29th.
The 29th is a Tuesday this year, DARK DAY. What should we do?
Is he a lock on Monday or Wednesday or both???????