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Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012 at 10:28 AM
timmye1  (Login timmye1)
UpInClass Member

The #4, Torment (ML 8-1) is a very interesting entrant in today's 8th race at Belmont.

In yesterday's finale, the trio of Imbesi/Cesare/Castro (owner/trainer/jockey) brought home a $31 winner. The horse was dropping from a MSW to a $25K claimer. What I liked about him was the series of long, 6F and mile works he had prior to the race, especially since this "sprinter" was stretching out for the first time to a 1 1/16 mile race.

The exact opposite is happening in today's 8th race. The trio is back at it, as Torment is also dropping from a MSW to a $25K claimer, but this "distance" horse is cutting back to a 6F sprint today. He shows a string of very nice 4F works at GP back in January, so he appears to have some spring in his step. His longer past races and 7F works sure must have given him a strong foundation. The field also appears to have an abundance of early speed in the race, which could set the race up for his potential close. Can lightning strike twice? I'll be playing to find out...



    
This message has been edited by timmye1 on Jun 3, 2012 10:29 AM


 
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spiderjohn
(Login spiderjohn)
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Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 10:47 AM 

Congratulations on your hit yesterday.
Been on a super roll myself, however yesterday
was my day to be the victim. Brought it on myself
by playing too many races that I really didn't like.
Not very smart.

I have had much better luck with sprinters stretching out
than with routers cutting back.
Plus-- those dropping down are often over-bet.
Need a strong trainer pattern to
like that angle.

One of the most expensive circumstances of
pik 3s/4s is having to put level $$ leverage on races
where you really have no clue.

 
 
timmye1
(Login timmye1)
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Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 11:05 AM 

Spider, isn't it nice to get in that zone? I've also been doing quite well of late but feel I've left way too much money on the table by not also playing exactas and tris. That may change today. I sure hope so, anyway.

Here's another one that may be worth a bet today. In the 9th race, I see Sportwriter and I'll Stake U taking a lot of money today, but I'm not sure the turf will help either one of them.

I'm backing the #8, Disco On at ML odds of 8-1. His works have been great of late and that dirt sprint race off the layoff may have just been a tune up for this turf race. He's already shown a mile is not a bad distance for him, so this 7F should be right in his wheel house. I just hope he's matured a bit since his 2YO season. We'll soon find out...


 
 

Jason Baker
(Login JBaker826)
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Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 11:06 AM 

FWIW, I often look for Castro on the turf with price horses. He is seems to get the most out of his mounts on turf and is often on overlooked horses. Don't care for him too much on dirt, but he is a sharp turf rider.

 
 
Stephen Levinson
(Login orioleboy)
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Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 2:29 PM 

Jason,
Taking a shot with your two touts in the 8th and 9th today as I didn't really like anything.
Thanks and good luck .
Steve

 
 

Spanky
(Login spanky126)
UpInClass Member

Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 3:15 PM 

A RARE red board from the Basement...in the Belmont 5th I lucked out playing #8 Biolette across the board @ 20ish-1...of course, switched the #4 horse that would have filled out the $745 exacta to the #1 horse...doh!

 
 

Jason Baker
(Login JBaker826)
UpInClass Member

Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 3:20 PM 

No touts from me Steve, these are Tom's plays. FWIW, I am throwing all Castro turf mounts into my plays today.

 
 
timmye1
(Login timmye1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 3:55 PM 

Way to go, Spanky! Back to the heading of my other posting. The highs and lows of this game. You catch a huge longshot and you're still not happy! LOL


 
 
timmye1
(Login timmye1)
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Late Pick-3

June 3 2012, 4:20 PM 

I (and almost everyone else) must still be alive in the Pick-4 after the first leg.

FWIW, here's an additional $40 worth of late Pick-3's I just played:

4:16:33 PM Race 8 BELMONT $1.00 Pick 3 4/ 7,8/ 12,14 - $4.00 -
4:16:21 PM Race 8 BELMONT $1.00 Pick 3 4,7/ 7,8,11/ 12,14 - $12.00 -
4:15:25 PM Race 8 BELMONT $1.00 Pick 3 4-8,11/ 7,8/ 12,14 - $24.00 -

If it's meant to be...

Good luck to anyone playing today!




 
 
timmye1
(Login timmye1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 3 2012, 5:25 PM 

Sorry, guys. Both made strong moves racing wide before tiring. I may have jumped the gun a race. Believe me, I'm known for that! I'm playing them right back next time.


 
 
timmye1
(Login timmye1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 4 2012, 6:16 AM 

Here's where my decision to load up on exactas and tris keying my two picks hurt me. Caught a cheap Pick-3 (see above post) and Pick-4 and still lost a few bucks for the day. I can't win...



    
This message has been edited by timmye1 on Jun 4, 2012 6:17 AM


 
 
spiderjohn
(Login spiderjohn)
UpInClass Member

Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 4 2012, 7:01 AM 

pick one method or the other
Trying to be oerfect to hit everything is dicey,
and expensive when you are only close

trying to do too many things maybe?
and when chalk rolls in, you are are lucky just to break even

keep it simple, sensible and roi-directed
the goal is to maximize reward while minimizing risk

and I need to practice what I preach

please attend my handicapping lecture series this week in Manhattan


    
This message has been edited by spiderjohn on Jun 4, 2012 7:49 AM


 
 
timmye1
(Login timmye1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Sunday at Belmont

June 4 2012, 5:12 PM 

I agree with you wholeheartedly, Spider. I did try to do too much yesterday and was suckered into it by just being on a roll of late. Lesson learned...(until the next time). wink.gif


 
 
 
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