Golden Ridge is getting some buzz in the QP. His last race Beyer of 84 is the 3rd highest in the field and he just had a very sharp 5f work in 59.2. But he just broke his maiden! What would happen if this was the Derby? No shot; right. Has any horse ever won the QP off of a maiden win (Large or Small Mac?).
Strait of Dover looks like the horse to beat with River Rush also in the mix.
Will play around with these three and also us find a way to get Peyton and Irish Mission on some tickets as longshots.
Golden Ridge is not the only Plate runner who only has a maiden win to his credit. Macho Whiskey, Wilcox, Big Creek, Classic Bryce and Making Amends also are still eligible for NW1 other than conditions. Several of these, i.e. Classic Bryce and Big Creek, have been running in stakes races so that a NWx1 would be a huge class dropdown for them. Washington Dash (who should be the longest shot in the field) is still looking for his maiden win.
However, River Rush was still a maiden when he won the Plate Trial, and set a track record in the process. With Beyer progressions of 57, then 79, then 89, will he continue to improve, or could he be a candidate for a bounce?
Steve, what I find curious is that very few of those analyzing the QP are asking about the ability of any of these runners to get the 1 1/4 mile distance. If this were the Derby, that would be the primary point of analysis.
The entrant who has me scratching my head the most has been Dixie Strike. I just don't know what to do with her. Her last race in the Oaks was very unimpressive, but her trainer has said that she had a tooth abcess before that race and lost several days of training. In the race prior to that, the Selene, she posted an 89 Beyer and ran the 1 1/16th in 1:43.79, drawing off at the end. In contrast, Golden Ridge's maiden breaker was also at 1 1/16th and his final time was 1:44.18. Yet Golden Ridge is getting lots of press and Dixie almost none. A repeat of Dixie Strike's Selene could put her right into the mix, yet she is getting very little respect.
By the way, if you want lots of info on all of the QP entrants, you might want to go to OntarioThoroughbred.com It will provide you video replays of every race of every entrant in the QP.
This message has been edited by JolyB on Jun 23, 2012 10:26 AM This message has been edited by JolyB on Jun 23, 2012 10:01 AM
Just so all of you know who to avoid, I'm taking a shot with #8 Ultimate Destiny (the name sounds like a QP winner to me)! I really like the Pleasnt Tap underneath, I'm thinking the distance shouldn't be a problem however, he must run faster. Good luck and have a great weekend to all!
I see that Leparoux picks up the mount on my bomber Peyton. Lets hope he doesn't give him a "Ragged" ride.
Stephen Levinson (Login orioleboy) UpInClass Member
Re: Maiden in the Queens Plate
June 23 2012, 3:36 PM
Just a word on Irish Mission. Liked her last time but skipped the race only to see her win at 9/1. This leggy daughter of Giants Causeway will relish the distance and is working well, but the Beyers need to improve. Still think she can hit the board at a price.
Macho Whiskey 15-1 ML can be forgiven for that last 9f allowance race.
Two sharp works coming out of that conditioning race and they supplement a much fitter animal.Thought his first couple going 6f's were very strong.Asking a lot to then stretch out to 9f's three weeks later while hung out widest on very slow fractions.He's bred to get nine furlongs and hopefully Emma Jayne can nurse an extra one out of him.
I agree with Cindyloujazz, I'm going with #8 longshot, Ultimate Destiny.
Really not too far off this group. A little improvement and a good trip will be all that's needed.
Using Irish Mission underneath.
Steve, I'm with you on Irish Mission. Think she looks like she's going to sit a dream trip right in behind the ML favorite. Need to see an improvement in speed figs, but I think she's well suited for the distance and love how she was able to step up from being a lifetime maiden to a major stakes winner in 2 starts.
Also using the rail horse as his last was too good to ignore.
If we do get a paceless race, I can easily see Strait of Dover walking the dog on the lead and not getting caught at the end. Both of his main rivals (Golden Ridge and especially River Rush) run from off of the pace and both benefitted from a faster pace in their last victories. But, Irish Mission and Big Creek might want to run with Strait of Dover early, making things much more interesting.
Still trying to figure out how Dixie Strike is going to fit into all of this. She has the co-highest Beyer in the field in her next to last race, and her last race could be considered a throwout due to physical problems before the Oaks. Yet she is seemingly disregarded in everyone's analysis. I know she can be terribly inconsistent, but in looking at her back class I keep coming up with the "what if's".
Don't feel strong enough about this play to start a new thread. However, take a look at the King Edward Stakes in the 7th. #Hothersal is m/l 8-1. Been waiting for this one to return to the turf since finishing a very nice second to Casino Host at GP. Now coming into third off the layoff for Casse in a field full of vulnerable favorites. Anything north of 4-1 and this one is worth a few dollars to bet.
I'm probably nuts, but I'm going to go with Colleen's Sailor. Roger Attfield has won EIGHT of these things, and the newly-elected Hall Of Famer just isn't going to put a horse in this race just for window dressing. He's a little speed-figure challenged, but no more so than several others. He's third off the layoff and third time out for Attfield as well, and Nakatani is back aboard after a nice win last out on Memorial Day weekend.
He's 15/1 ML and probably should go a little higher than that on paper, but the Attfield factor will probably keep him at about that price.
To me, he's worth a shot.
Good luck today everybody. May they all come home safely...everywhere!
Pedigree may not matter that much if the clunk it around, but it doesn't hurt either. Golden Ridge looks like he can get 10f, as does Strait of Dover. Ridge on top, with Strait and Irish Mission, another with distance in her genes. No strong feelings, though.
I'm against the likely favorite here, Strait Of Dover, don't think he beat much last out and this is only his second route race. I ended up using the two fillies, Dixie Strike and Irish Mission on top, with River Rush and Colleen's Sailor underneath. Irish Mission should really appreciate the distance, and I like the workouts since returning to Woodbine and the half million dollar training race for this. With a heady ride ride from Solis, she can sit a good stalking trip and turn it on when they hit the stretch. Not sure what's up with the blinkers for Dixie Strike, but I expect her to commence a big run on the far turn. Good luck to all.
Very impressive win by Strait of Dover, running wire to wire in strong time. Irish Mission showed that she relished the 1 1/4 mile distancce, and Dixie Strike rebounded to her form from her poor showing in the Oaks.
Nice race by Straits of Dover. My gal Irish Misssion ran huge in defeat . Caught the exacta a few times which came back a very generous $108. Joly; we should have had this tri, I know you liked Dixie Strike. Good call.
Steve, I'm just delighted with Dixie Strike's rebound. I've been competing in the Queen's Plate Fantasy Challenge, an online contest run through the Woodbine website. I was in 19th place starting today, and lots of folks ahead of me in the standings had abandoned Dixie after her Oaks showing. Her $110,000 in stable earnings, plus Patrick Husband's jockey earnings ought to really make a difference in the final standings.
Oh, yeah, had the exacta, but didn't have the bankroll to play the tri.