Wonder what happened in yesterday's contest? I had put in a pick for day 2 (Suesawme), and she finished 2nd. It seems as if the race card was completed. However, when I looked at the standings this morning, I could find no evidence of yesterday's races - no one had been eliminated, everyone had only one race credited in the standings, and the potential picks for Friday's card were available.
I received the following from the administrators of Portland Meadows Survivor:
Hello ShowVivor Players!
As a special thank you for playing ShowVivor, we are offering you the opportunity to play in an email only contest - against only other ShowVivor Players - with a $100 prize pool every Sunday (note there is no live racing on Sunday September 9, 2012).
All you have to do is make $20 in mythical wagers for the specific contest race and send us an email. Please do read all the rules below, it is pretty important as we did a similar contest last year and unfortunately some people were disqualified as they broke contest rules.
First $100 Email only contest of the year
Sunday September 2, 2012 - Race #6
$20 in mythical wagers All bets are eligible.
Whoevers wagers yields the most money will receive $100!
Its totally free to play and the rules and regulations are listed below. Reminder this is exclusively for players who took part in ShowVivor!
Matt Jukichs Expert Analysis for the whole card will be available here:
I found it really difficult to like any of these low priced claimers. The field has a 2012 record of 3 for 51 and a lifetime record of 9 for 135. Many of the wins are not on the current page of pp's or are at shorter distances than today's mile. So, I'm not approaching today's exercise with a whole lot of confidence.
Since the $100 prize goes to the player with the top winnings for the $20 wager, I've decided to try to hit with a superfecta with a reasonable wager size. If it doesn't work, so be it.
I'm leaving #5 What's In The Soup out entirely, and since #1 Timber Twister could conceivably clunk up into a minor placing using him on a very small ticket. With respect to #3 Sushis Son, I just don't see why he has been made 3-1 in the ML; don't think he should be anything close to that. I considered leaving him out entirely and ended up only using him in the bottom placings. I liked #4 I'm Just A Guy at 8-1 just as well or perhaps a little better than #3, but not for the top two places.
After that, it got more difficult to separate the top "contenders." The drop in class of #2 Son of Sassy from $5,000 to $3,200 seems to be a significant class drop and may compensate for the fact that he has not won at today's distance. In my opinion, he is just a little better than either #6 Delavega or #7 J.T. Rocks, whom I rated just about equally.
My wager ended up as follows (subject to possible scratches just before the 12:50 Pacific deadline):
$1.10 superfecta: 2/6,7/3,4,6,7/3,4,6,7 = $13.20
$.50 superfecta: 6,7/2/3,4,6,7/3,4,6,7 = $6.00
$.20 superfecta: 2/6,7/6,7/1 = $.40
$.20 superfecta: 2/6,7/1/6,7 = $.40
My only wish is that the entry cutoff were a bit later than the 12:50 Pacific deadline, especially since the race isn't until around 4:00. If there are any scratches, there won't be a whole lot of time to restructure the entry before the deadline, especially if the superfecta pool might get eliminated due to scratches.
Good luck to all who are playing.
This message has been edited by JolyB on Sep 16, 2012 12:18 PM
Well, for a $1.10 bet, that gets me a return of $80.08. I'm real pleased with the outcome, but don't think it will be enough to win this week's contest. There's bound to be someone who hit the tri for more than $2. I'll admit that I played the super in the $1.10 increment to try to beat those who only played it for a buck.
I'm impressed with the winner's gutsy selection. That was not an easy trifecta to nail cold. The winner was the ML favorite, but after that it got much tougher. I think you had to then use the ML 3rd choice, followed by the ML 5th choice.
I had thought that my $1.10 winning superfecta might be somewhere in contention; turns out it wasn't even close.
Like you Dell, I'm going to have to narrow the scope of the wager. Don't know if I have the chutzpah to try a cold tri though.
Good luck to all who are playing this week. Please note that the pp's that were sent with the original message were the wrong ones. A corrected set have also been sent.
With this group, almost anything has a chance of working out. It's really challenging to assess the types of horses some of these have been running against. For example, Lasting Influence comes out of a claimer at this level at Kin Park, and prior to that had been racing at Sun Downs and Kamloops. Enterprise Zone had run in a small stakes race, but that was at Crooked River. Prior to that he had a win at Grants Pass. Eighty Eight has three consecutive on the board finishes, but two of them have been at the Tilamook County Fair and the Harney County Fair. I've barely heard of some of these tracks and have no idea of the level of competition. My guess is that it's pretty low.
Compared to those, Buck's Bro truly stands out on class. While he hasn't won since last December, that win was at the $25,000 claiming level at Golden Gate.
I believe that it will be much more difficult to hit a cold exotic this week than it was last week.
I have a question concerning this week's contest race that I'd like to pose to those who understand a race condition book better than I do. The race is a $2,500 conditioned claimer for "3 year olds and upward which have never won two races Or Oregon-Bred which have never won three races."
#4 Noballstwostrikes is Kentucky bred and won a MdCl on June 12 and a 3500 Cl nw2L on Sept 12.
#9 Zion's View is Cal bred and won a MSW on July 13 and a 2500 Cl nw2L on Aug 12.
How can either of these horses be eligible for this race? Neither is Oregon-bred and neither one appears to meet the condition of having "never won two races."
I'm taking a somewhat different approach from you, Dell. I suspect with this group of $1,600 conditioned claimers it is possible for intelligent handicappers to reach wildly different conclusions of who might be able to finally win a race at PM in 2012.
I ended up with the following stab:
$5 superfecta: 8,10 with 8,10 with 4,5 with 4,5
Hope that one of our approaches proves to be correct.
The condition of this race really amazed me: "... which have started at the 2012 Portland Meadows meet and have not finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the meet or have started in a race restricted to horses that have not finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the current meet and have not won a race at the current meet." Such a condition allows horses like #8 Enzimotion and #10 Colonel Courtney to enter even though they are 3 time winners this year, since their wins have been at tracks other than PM.
Years ago James Quinn wrote a wonderful book called The Handicapper's Condition Book, discussing the types of horses best suited to various race conditions. I wonder how he would have reacted to the conditions of today's race.
Looks to me that Emerald Downs shippers seem to improve at Portland Meadows.
Therefore, I'll take a shot with the #3 CHUPETES (6-1) and #8 OUR WOODY (8-1),
both trying Portland Meadows for the first time... my winning ticket:
One of these Sundays one of us will nail it. Last week I had no chance of getting the third place finisher. I had him ranked next to last on my "depth chart" and take my hat off to anyone who used him successfully.
This week #6 Firedancers MG looks like as much of a standout as you can have in a race at this level. He is dropping in class from twice the claiming price and has numbers that are superior to all but #1 Fast Charli. The latter is an intriguing entrant. He has very competitive numbers, but looks more like a router than a sprinter and has been off since March. Also, he has 3 seconds in a row in routes. At 10-1 I still have to include him at the bottom of my ticket. #10 Warner is the second choice in the ML, but I don't like him at all. His only virtue to me is that he has not been beaten as many times as most of the others in the race, but just seems to be slower. I'm passing on him entirely at 4-1.
I do like one of your EMD shippers, #8 Our Woody, who seems to be shortening back to his best distance of 6f. For that reason, I'm throwing out his last race, and with lots of second place finishes on his resume, using him in the 2nd and 3rd slots.
My ticket looks like this:
$5 superfecta: #6 Firedancers MG WITH #5 Sonja's Firefly and #8 Our Woody WITH #5 & #8 WITH #1 Fast Charli and #9 Nu Moon Bay
Late edit: #6 scratched. Along with a throw out #2.
With much less conviction, I'm going with a $5 superfecta: 5,8 with 5,8 with 1,9 with 1,9.
This message has been edited by JolyB on Oct 14, 2012 2:37 PM
I had to change my play due the the scratch of the stickout Firedancers M G. This really steps up Nu Moon Bay who should be the controlling speed from the outside. I agree that the Washington shippers step up when they ship to Oregon and I'm using both Chupetes and Our Woody behind. $10 trifecta key 9/3,8.
Well, between the three of us, we had all of the elements of the super. Dell and ProPro liked both of the EMD runners, especially Chupetas who ran a strong 2nd. I could have contributed Sonja's Firefly, and perhaps you could have talked me out of Fast Charli, who wasn't fast at all. I think we all liked both Our Woody and Nu Moon Bay. Unfortunately it all adds up wait till next week.
These 3 out of 4 superfecta efforts cause much banging of the head against the wall.
Broulee Beach should be a bomb Dell. Good luck there. He's been regressing in each start since his return to the races and the trainer change hasn't helped either. He's down in class, but I'm leaving him out.
Mr. Ichiban (#10) is 9 for 18 at PM and 16 for 18 ITM. He's done this Hastings/PM move before and he always runs well. He'll be rolling late when the speed kisses the eighth pole. Mo's Flashy Date (#7) has 4 straight seconds since his return in August. Here's my play.
Don't quite understand why Wild Chica is dropping down from $5,000 conditioned claimer to $2,500 conditioned claimer after winning last out at the higher level. Suspicious drop, but on paper she looks very strong for a spot in the top two.
Also noticed that #7 Dulcinea La Rosa has been away for 4 years (yes, years) since her last outing in 2008 at the Tillimook County Fair. Just can't include a horse like that in my super.
Going with: $5 Superfecta - 1,6 with 1,6 with 3,8 with 3,8 = $20
I'm in with a $10 trifecta key 1/ 3,6. Let's Celebrate is 2 for 2 after returning from a 6 month layoff. Wild Chica is logical and while Colorful Tune is a bull ring expert and beat a really bad field at Brown County last time, she's going to have the lead early in here and can hang for a piece. I thought about playing supers instead adding 5 and 8, but decided to take a shot with the tri.
I found out that conditions outside the maiden ranks at PM exclude wins at the Oregon fairs. This is how a 6-time winner Colorful Tune can race here in an N3L.
Certainly agree with the observation that this is a tough race. None of these runners have gone beyond 6f, and a couple have only run 5 or 5 1/2. Four of them are still maidens even though this is a small (perhaps not so small as races for Oregon breds go) stakes race. One of them has never hit the board in 5 tries.
What is interesting to me is how 7 of these runners came out of the same $15K stakes race on October 20, where they occupied the 1st through 5th, and 7th and 8th positions. That race was won by #9 Cantchaco, who went off at 32-1 and went wire to wire. He won't be anything close to that price today, might even end up the favorite.
A horse that neither of you two like very much intrigues me a little; that is the filly #3 Calypsonted. Even though the time on her last race was pretty slow, she must have beaten a really weak field to win by 13 3/4 lengths. I wonder whether she might be able to at least get a piece of this.
I'm dithering over how to structure my wager. Right now, I'm using a $5 superfecta as follows:
I like that #2 showed life last out
and #4 always gives an honest effort.
Playing all INSIDE runners in a $5 Superfecta:
#2 A STAR IS HERE (10/1) and #4 ADAM N RYAN (5/2) in the top spot
#2 A STAR IS HERE (10/1), #3 FAST CHARLI (9/2), #4 ADAM N RYAN (5/2) in the second spot
Singling #1 HANKHANKMCCLANK (2/1) [Life: 23 - 2w 4p 11s] to SHOW.
#2 A STAR IS HERE (10/1), #3 FAST CHARLI (9/2), #4 ADAM N RYAN (5/2) in the fourth spot.