JB, so is that your secret? Forget the losing, all is not lost if you get to watch a beautiful 2YO?
Well, I also lost, but never got a chance to watch the beautiful 2YO you mention. Do you think it would help if I glance through a Victoria's Secret catalogue and look at some beautiful 25 year olds? LOL
Very interesting you should ask, JMAN. Have spent my work breaks today perusing the card. As a fan, I love Executive Privilege (think I was the first to mention her here on June 28). HOWEVER, the way to kill this pick 6 is to beat her. Think the 9 Bares Tripper is really interesting in this spot. But, I agree with you this is probably a Pick 5.
So- now the trick is to narrow the other legs. I absolutely love Race 5: #7 Queen Mercury. Broke her maiden two back then jumped up into a starter allowance and ran a respectable race wide. Comes back into a much softer spot here third off the layoff. The cherry on top is that Bejarano stays on this filly rather than the other logical choice #9 Bila Shaka.
The other leg I have an opinion on is the first leg- Race 3. I am putting all of my eggs in the Ron Ellis basket after listening to him on Steve Byk's show this morning. The chalk looks like a very heady claim off of Art Sherman. Ellis does take many claims so the fact that he likes this one tells me something. Also, the gelding's last race speaks for itself at the same distance and on the Del Mar Turf. #5 Megastar has been sitting on the sidelines to some degree because Ellis absolutely refuses to risk claiming him for anything under $50,000. That tells you how much he likes this horse. On the Byk show, Ellis talked very highly about these entrants on tomorrow's card and not so much on the other entry later in the sequence.
Have not been able to see many great angles in Races 4, 6 and 8. Am all ears if you have any thoughts on those races or the others.
This message has been edited by JBaker826 on Aug 7, 2012 7:00 PM
We are on the same page in the 5th. I see the 7-9 and the rest are a bunch of slugs. They both appear to be in the best form and just look faster on paper than anyone else.
Agree that the first leg of the pick 4 goes through Ellis. The ML favorite Smokey Lonesome was somewhat featured on TVG the day Ellis claimed him. It was well known throughout the broadcast that Ellis was claiming the horse. He said he thought the horse was more fit for a 50k claimer, had an owner who wanted to buy a 40k claimer, they actually wanted to buy one of the sprinters earlier in the card and Ellis steered him to this horse. Ellis said he felt very good with the claim and seeing the horse back 2 weeks after getting him tells me everything I need to know about the horse. Agree about his other horse who will be the longer price of the two and gets Valdivia whose known to jam it down your throat in a turf spot like this. Other horse I like is Quail Hill (12-1 ML) who looks like he should be loose on the lead. Last time out he got torched on the lead but shouldn't have to work nearly as hard to get clear here. Gets a barn upgrade and is off the double claim (an angle I like very much)and gets a jock whose very strong on the front end. Definitely not letting potential lone speed with the rail out 14 feet get me.
I think the last 3 races on the card are pretty chalky.
6th - Swift Eagle (7/2 ML 2nd choice) beat open company going 1 1/8 last out. He's capable of rating right in behind the speed. Coming out of the shoot he's going to have to establish his position early, but being so tactical that shouldn't be an issue. I actually like the cutback in this spot and he's trained pretty forwardly since his maiden score.
7th - I definitely see your point with the outside horse in here, but Executiveprivlege gets a big time draw and seems to just be more talented. Beat her and you could be sitting on a massive number in the p6, but for me it just looks like wasted money.
8th - I really like Dance Team (5/2 ML fav) in this spot. Ran a very creditable race in her debut and now stretches out to two turns. In that race she drew the 9 hole, which is really difficult to win from on the turf at Hollywood, so running 2nd 2 1/4 clear of the 3rd runner is really impressive in my opinion. Mandella is below average debuting, but solid 2nd out. Appears that the horse is crying out for more distance given the breeding. Horse that beat her in her debut ran 2nd in the Best Pal vs boys, so a little flattering there. Dickey has another in the race, but it's a firster that draws the dreaded outside, so an easy pitch. 8 post and out going a flat mile are auto pitches for me, out of the shoot I'm a little more open.
This message has been edited by JMAN667 on Aug 7, 2012 7:08 PM
It's supposed to be 80+ out there today. When it gets that warm the track has a tendency to play very kindly to the rally wide closer types. In my opinion it's been an honest track all meet, but the next few days are supposed to be the warmest weather they've had so far. Just something to watch for early in the card.
This message has been edited by JMAN667 on Aug 8, 2012 1:02 PM