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Million Day!

August 17 2012 at 12:51 AM

elk-  (Login elk-)

Race 1 -  Tough start to the card with a competitive 1 mile poly stake.  Favorite Hammers Terror is solid, but several other are as good getting weight but less consistent.   Hogy is the wild card with some huge sprint races but poor effort going longer.  Ill toss him and hope he doesnt figure it out.    Afford finally broke through the  # from his maiden win and got a little break.  Not the best pattern but if hes going to step up this would be the time.  Solid at 5-1.   Sweet Luca and Francois  to fill out the tri. (7,8/2,4,7,8/2,4,7,8)

Race 2 Cool C Note (7-2) is faster on Tgraph than the favorite and in good form and good spacing into this.  Not crazy about the post but confident  Leparoux can make it work.   (9)

Race 3 7500 claimers, what is this the Spa (just kidding)  Could just past but its the start of the early pick 4  Going to throw some bombs on a ticket and hope Successful Bid (30-1) 2nd off the layoff for a hot (22% winners, 38% new tops last 90 days) 1st start of career (2 years ago) was the fastest # of the group.  Worth a shot that at the price that they have figured out her problems.   Debinators race 3 back was very good and she looks to be cycling back to it. (15-1).  Rebas Fancy (12-1) Last two back on poly have been good.  Toast with honey Easy maiden win last out got a big #.  It was a big top but if she can do it again she could win.   Blarney dor,  has the most good races of the group, and I cant stomach going deep and leaving off Brueggemann off (4,5,7,10,11)

Race 4- Not getting any easier  Plenty of these look to have a shot.  Beyond Compare looks like he could be ready 2nd out getting the trip he is bred for. Mughaadir is another 2nd timer with good turf breeding wont hold the bad 1st try against him after some trouble and sent out by a poor 1st out trainer.  Lifes Reward is high price yearling for a Catalano who regularly has turf firsters run better than any these ran 1st out.   Telitkitiscoach fastest of those who have run and Divito has been gets 55% new tops 2nd out.   (1,3,8,9)   (.10 pick 9 starts here, only pays out 25 % of the pool unless its a single correct 9 of 9 who gets the whole pool.  Dont play unless there is a decent carryover)

Race 5 - Nayarra may be odds on here, and is slower on Tgraph than most of these.  Lasix and trainer change may be what she needs, but Ill play against until she proves it.  Looks to be plenty of pace here which is super odd for a turf stake lately  Ann of the Dance looks like the fastest of the off the pace types and should love the return to the grass. (2) 

Race 6 -  Mr Num Num, fast on poly and Ill forgive the turf races.  Rounding back to a big number.  Prince of speed is by far the fastest and gets a positive trainer change.  Most likely winner if he isnt 3w3w again.  (3,6)    early pick 4 =[4,5,7,10,11 /1,3,8,9 / 2 / 3,6]  (start of $1 pick 6 if youre into that)

Race 7  Tough to see the US contingent getting it done over 27/16ths  Jakkalberry and Zuinder Zee will settle it in the lane. Ill take the latter who is getting lasix and a better price.    Vertiformer, Lake Drop and Suntracer fight for the small checks.  10 / 8 / 1 5 6  (Pick 5, 100k min pool)

Race 8 Secretariat.   Silver Max is fast and consistent but will probably be less than the 9-5 ml.   Not bred for the distance, but hung on at it last out in an oddly run race in bog.  Giving weight and outdrew by the field.   No bargain.   Finnegans Wake has run some decent races with trouble; a clear trip here could be a winner.  All stormy will be a huge price, ran a big 2yo number on slop and only paired on turf, with the 7 lbs post and likely 1w1w trip he may just go out and not come back to them.  (4,5,8)

Race 9 Ill bred younger sis of Suntracer shows up here for her first stakes try.  Tough jump from the statebred n1x and n2x groups she has beaten, but should get a good trip and has the best TG turf number of the group.  Lady Micaela won easy fist out and comes back quic for this Catalono is 32% running back in less than 11 days and she is bred for the turf, could be something special.  (2,6 over 1,4)

Race 10 Bev. D -  Heck of a group here.  Tough to deny Marketing Mixs quality or form, but some other may be able to best her on their best day including some prices.   Upperline has run some big ones and Stars to Shine seems to be a late bloomer who Frostad seems to point for a big 3rd off the layoff race.  First two were better than last year could be a coming out party for her.  ( 8,9 / 4

Race 11 Arlington Million Rahystrada fast, consistent, good form,  and 8-1.   Afsare fastest of the euros getting lasix, looks to get a covered up trip inside.  (1,3) )  

 Race 7-11 pick 5 [8,10/4,5,8/2,6/4,8,9/1,3]

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(Login big18741)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 17 2012, 7:46 AM 

Thanks Elk for the rundown.

Gotta like Asfare after watching this:


robert brown
UpInClass Member

pick 5

August 17 2012, 9:13 AM 

First let me say, very good write up. I enjoyed it.



Jason Baker
(Login JBaker826)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 17 2012, 9:29 AM 

Thanks, Elk! Good luck on Saturday in more than ways than one happy.gif


Cherokee Scot
(Login CherokeeScot)

It's Crackerjack time !

August 17 2012, 9:49 AM 

Asfare seems to be the one Euro that everyone over here is talking about but I like Crackerjack King better and he should go off at a longer price. He handled Asfare in Rome back in May but was out of his depth against Nathaniel in the Eclipse. However this field is not as classy as the Sandown one. Surprised to see Treasure Beach back after his awful effort last time in the States. I note that O'Donoghue who rides Treasure Beach in Europe rides Crackerjack King here.

This message has been edited by CherokeeScot on Aug 17, 2012 9:50 AM

(Login sammythesage)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 17 2012, 10:53 AM 

Condition of the course will have as much to do w/outcome as anything else...

(Login ski_)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 17 2012, 6:40 PM 

Elk - I am going to unload on Finnegan's Wake. He'll be more that solid odds and he's ready to finally step up. I've been wanting him here all year. I'm glad you're seeing it too.

Weather was mid 80's and sunny today...no rain in sight. The turf will be firm.

Million Day/Night brings back great memories and funny ones too.


(Login frangooch)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 17 2012, 8:53 PM 

Colombian is my Euro in The Million. He's been keeping the best company, if not beating it, Gosden doesn't ship for fun, tanned, rested, and ready. With Asfare and Rahyblabla.

This message has been edited by frangooch on Aug 17, 2012 9:03 PM


Tom Williams
(Login TenFurlongs)

Re: Million Day!

August 17 2012, 10:10 PM 

St. Leger- Jakkalberry looks tough here, but big closer Suntracer is not without a chance.

Secretariat- Silver Max is a freak, but there could be significant pace pressure if all go here. Bayrir improving with every start from top connections. Summer Front may just be a great miler, but closed to win going away on a speed-biased turf course, running a last half mile under 45 seconds. This is a great race.

Hatoof- Leading Astray and Silver Hustler to run down all the speed in here.

Beverly D.- Romacaca is as game as they come, can take them a long way. Marketing Mix will stalk, get first run into the lane.

Arlington Million- Colombian and Asfare look better than the Americans, and Wigmore Hall is live if he can recapture his N.A. form from last year. Boisterous looks best of the home team.

Win bets on Summer Front, Wigmore Hall.

Pick-5: 6,8//2,7,8//2,7//3,8//2,3,5,8


(Login Boozer_1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 6:20 AM 

Nice write up guys. Tough, yet fun looking card at Arlington today. Still trying to navigate through it. Good luck to everyone.

By the way, anyone want to give me odds that Keystone King is just waiting to post in this thread at some point today?

(Login spiderjohn)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 8:18 AM 

One of my favorite race days annually
Attended the first 20+ runnings, with a box on the finish line--gave it up a few years ago
to cut back on my annual racing trips
race used to be on Sunday--day after Travers
Chicago is a cool town--not as cool asd nyc though

stakes races

local Catalano may pull the upset with his well-bred classy #1 VERTIFORMER if he goes here.
Block's #6 SUNTRACER also gets a play to pop the upset where few expect US runners to win
Foreigners #8 JAKKLEBERRY and #10 ZUIDER ZEE obviously figure.
boxing all four in exacta and tri--dutching top two to win

#8 SILVER MAX was good enough to hold on @ Colonial, which is a very demanding turf layout.
If not spent from that, he coul;d repeat as a strong favorite.
Out to best him with #3 COZZETTI if he falters.
#2 SUMMER FRONT figures and should be higher than 5/2
#7 BAYRIR is by Medicean, who was a very nice runner.
Boxing all four in the tri

blast from the past Louie Roussell III(the very great RISEN STAR)re-appears here with #5 STARSHIP DUCHESS,
and when he stops by, he usually makes noise. Otherwise #2 LEADING ASTRAY is my top choice.
#8 FREEDOM REIGNS also seems in good form, to make this an all-local exacta and possibly tri.

I'll stick with my Belmont pal Steve L's #5 MYSTICAL STAR, and fill in behind him with

maybe redemption for O'Brien's #6 TREASURE BEACH as he ruturns to where he won the Secretariat last year.
Huge difference between this turf course and that @ Belmont. #5 COLUMBIAN has consistently high #s, and
#9 CRACKERJACK KING nay show up, though his #s are not really good enough.
Rounding out the tri with the popular #3 AFSARE and #2 BOISTEROUS(who shouldn't be good enough).

$.50 tris should make for some fun today

Stakes pik 5 looks very expensive so a $.50 try with:
4 x 4 x 3 x 3 x 4 = 576 / 2 = $288

three scratches so far---
#1 #6 out of the 7th(to run later?), and #5 out of the 9th
just going with 8-10 in the 7th--adding #6 LADY MICAELA in the 9th
cuts my outlay in half----$144
more $$ for individual plays!
should be a beautiful day at a beautiful facility in a fun city

This message has been edited by spiderjohn on Aug 18, 2012 3:33 PM

(Login big18741)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 9:05 AM 

Some really good recent works on two horses that Elk mentioned:

8th #5 All Stormy

10th #9 Stars to Shine

Both will be big prices and maybe worth a flyer.

(Login timmye1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 12:10 PM 

Good luck in the Millions today everyone! (I'll be sticking to my local track...)

Looking forward to hearing all the stories (especially about Jason's hangover!)

(Login DOsborne)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 12:30 PM 

In the Secretariat, other speed signed on so dont plan to play Silver Max. Think Daddy Long Legs can get the job done here, but if not Summer Front.

In the Beverly D, Marketing Mix a deserving favorite but Joviality worth a long look when you give her an excuse formthe soft ground in the last. Romacaca loves AP and is dangerous.

In the Million, think the it is a Euro sweep of the tri and maybe even the super. Going with Colombian over Treasure Beach, Afsare, and Crackerjack King. Only US horse I would consider is Shug's.

Stephen Levinson
(Login orioleboy)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 12:40 PM 

Great card. Should be fun. Here's a few I'll be checking out.
8th - trying to beat Silver Max. Maybe Daddy Long Legs can soften him up. Going with Bayrir. His last puts him right there.

9th - will be going at least 4 deep in the pick 3 but am playing a bomb to win; Soonerette. Fits with these and picks up Dominguez. Two nice works over the poly should have her ready.

Battery is dying. More later.



(Login Paseana)

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 1:29 PM 

I know this idea is probably patently absurd, but I'm going to put it out there anyway.

Is there ANY way possible that Little Mike could end up being a The Tin Man do-over?

Is it possible that he, like The Tin Man, will be completely disrespected by the other players in the race, and be allowed to totally "walk the dog"?

He does get a rather significant change of pilots in here (Bravo to Dominguez) which can't be ignored, no matter what you think of his over-all chances, and Dale Romans is no dummy.

The Tin Man was actually respected more by the bettors than he was by his fellow contestants, 5/1 were his odds if I remember correctly. The linemaker for today's race apparently thinks that might happen again as he's laid Little Mike at only 6/1 in this field.

I'm not sure that I mean this as a real tout.......how about let's say that it's only a tout if he wins! LOL! wink.gif

I'm just throwing it in as food for thought. It's up to you guys, and me too, to decide whether or not to throw it out.....literally!

(Login timmye1)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 2:13 PM 

Pas, fwiw, the exotic bettors must always use the quality speed horse in their picks (I'll also be using Turbo at Saratoga today). How often have we dropped the speed for some reason only to see these speedsters go on and on because there's no pressure? I know I've learned my lesson in the past (more than too many times)!

(Login gillenr)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 2:30 PM 

7th Suntracer
8th Silver Max
9th Freedom Reigns
10th Aruna/Marketing Mix
11th Little Max - I agree Pas. I was horseman's guide for Tin's connections & think I was more excited in their box than them!


Jason Baker
(Login JBaker826)
UpInClass Member

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 2:40 PM 

Back in the saddle for today's action. Will be rooting on my favorite current turf horse Silver Max.

Like the three big Euro's in the Million.

Will try using UP, I'M A DREAMER and STARS TO SHINE in the Beverly D. If forced to choose one, I would go with I'M A DREAMER.


Cherokee Scot
(Login CherokeeScot)

Re: Million Day!

August 18 2012, 5:00 PM 

Oh no , I sense a post from Keystone to be on its way !

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