You really think he'll be a long price Pas?
I'm thinking 3rd choice probably- 5/1 or so with the Lukas Lewis factors. Really little value in the trifecta in this race if, IF, RRuler hits the board. And with only 8 entered, it still doesn't cry out to be played. This one is hardly worth the venture unless you can work RR off the ticket entirely, imo.
Well, I don't think he'll be boxcars, but I do think that Afleet Alex, Proud Accolade, and maybe even Sun King will take more money than he does. I've just not heard too much buzzing about his win at Keeneland......it didn't exactly knock anyone's socks off. I was attracted to it myself more because of the way he looked winning it than how he won it.......and you know me, visual impressions are pretty important to me.
I certainly don't see the Juvenile tri paying in the thousands.....not at all.........but, if you can keep Roman Ruler out of the winner's circle and win the race with Consolidator (or somebody other than the other prime suspects), I think the trifecta payoff could still be worth playing $24 to hit it.
Me, I'm hoping most people were less impressed with Consolidator than I was, and don't see the huge potential for improvement that I do. Just my thoughts.
Well I'm admittedly terrible at predicting post time odds anyway. I think Consolidator belongs here- see no reason to exclude him from the ticket. DWayne likes to tinker- took the blinks off for the Kee race and sure loves to show up on Cup day so.. By the same token, so does Baffert when it comes to the 2yo. Add the Zito and the Pletcher and you're done! LOL Still- if it pays 50 for the dollar that'd be generous. 2/1 on a trifecta- not good value. I recall when Azeri won the distaff here at AP odds on, the tri came back around 31.00 or 34.00 and that may have bee the $2 payoff. Chart anyone?
That was 1st choice(1.8-1), 4th choice (4.9-1), 3rd choice (4.1-1). Take Charge Lady was the second choice at 3.2-1 and finished 6th in the 8 horse field.
This message has been edited by elk- on Oct 21, 2004 4:07 PM
Have to say I agree with Paseana that others will take more money than Consolidator. At 4th choice at best, you could get 8-10/1. I think Sun King will get 'wiseguyed' and offer less than fair value.
I like Consolidator's Keenland race a lot. Professional performance. Tactical speed, good finish, deewayne with a baby, strom cat, etc. Lots to like at the price, especially if he's learned to race, whuich his last run suggests that he has.
Big value may lie in the Euros. Or Patriot Act? Have not looked at PPs or even the pre-entries yet, but I'm assuming they'll be there.
For what it's worth, Baffy was asked on the radio this morning who he was most worried about. He mentioned Afleet Alex and a couple of others, but then said the one that scares him the most is.........Consolidator!
Not sure I wanted to hear that. It definitely indicates that my colt isn't as far under the radar as I hoped!
Again Pas, the Lukas factor I mentioned earlier- even Baffy is aware. Switching gears a bit, I was looking over the Juve last night (between innings) and the Euro- Scandinavia got my attention. FuPeg has a win at 1 1/16th with all his seconds going shorter. Crist's article dismisses him. He's carried 128#, 3 times and faced fields bigger than his 'bro' Roman Ruler. Tabor, Magnier, O'brien send. A strong contender at a ML of 12/1.
Kevin, FWIW I like Scandinavia quite a bit. He's out of the same dam as Composure. Should like the dirt (and the Lasix). Bad news is. O'Brien has said he's more likely to stay home than to ship over, but they have not made a final decision yet.
According to DRF. Scandinavia was on D plane, and is now at Lone Star. I think he's got a shot. He seems to have a lot of support here. It will be interesting to see what kind of price he is.
Excellent news. Price? Well,fwiw, according to Steve Crist, one of the 'Big 5' Juveniles will get lost in the betting shuffle and be 10/1. Scandanavia is not among his big 5, so..
As for supporting his chances- given the complexion of this field, there's really not much not to like about what I see on the paper if he's north of 10/1.
Somebody mentioned somewhere the idea of a ticket that excluded Roman Ruler (remember Officer?). So, for better or for worse, here's a case for that:
1) He was rank in his last race in a very small field.
2) There is the question of blinkers/no blinkers that they seem not to have figured out yet.
3) Only one horse in the race had a lower BRIS speed figure in his last outing, and if you add Wilko and Scandinavia, that gives you six horses to alternatively consider.
4) Somebody mentioned that he galloped out poorly in his last, though I personally did not see that.
Not sure I have the nerve to leave him off, but there you go.
Well- you can have your cake and eat it too when boxing 4 to hit 3. RRuler on the ticket in case and wishing him 4th isn't insane. Whatever the team decides- it's only a horse race after all. Nobody's life will be altered whatever the outcome.
Looks like we have some semblence of agreement. Thats got to be bad, right? ;>)
I dont have a strong feeling about the others, BUT, with a quick pace I think Wilko may be able to sneek in somewhere. Maybe a big move forward on the dirt?
I'm ok with Scandinavia too! I don't think anyone's going to confuse him with Johannesburg (one of my two surest winners in 2001), but you never know. And he'll offer mega-value.
And I, too, am pretty nervous about leaving Roman Ruler off the board, but if you guys decide that's what you want to do in the interest of value, I'll get on the bus. I frankly wasn't that impressed with his Norfolk, but it's Baffert, and that's enough alone to be scary, especially with the juveniles.
From the posts, I don't think I need to worry, but I will take a stand with Consolidator. It will be very difficult for me to accept a ticket without him on it.
So, assuming we're taking a leap of faith and giving Roman Ruler the boot, I'll take
Consolidator
Scandinavia
Afleet Alex
Sun King
I really don't care for Proud Accolade at all........now watch him win by 20! LOL!
