Race 5 - The Filly and Mare Turf
trying to find the same kinds of trends and overviews in this race (which has only been run 5 times) that you might in the others is not a reality. But that being said, it is probably wise to use at least one generalization: you don't want to be on the lead or even pressing the pace.
With the exception of 46-1 L'Ancresse, who was a very close 3rd at first call, 2nd at second call, and got to the lead in the stretch before losing to the favored Islington by a neck last year, no filly or mare who has been first, second or third at 1st and 2nd call in any of the other four previous BC races has even finished on the board.
Like the other Turf races this year, the Filly and Mare Turf also has a paucity of technical European invaders, with only Ouija Board and Yesterday making their NA debuts in this race. However, of the 12 named to start, 6 are European bred and Super Brand is of South African lineage. The other European breds, Aubonne (last 2 races stateside), Katdogawn (has been based in the U.S.), Light Jig (came here this winter and all six 2004 races have been in the U.S.), and Megahertz (been here since the beginning of 2002) have all given a pretty good idea of their capabilities.
The Filly and Mare Turf has all the mkings of a great race if you don’t think Ouija Board is a standout in here.. With the exception of Ouija Board and Bobby Frankel's outsider Megahertz, each of the other 10 set to go has solid tactical speed and good kick. None of the 10 has been further back than 5 lengths at first call in their last two races. This should not only make for great competition from the horses, but also demand terrific race riding from the jockeys
Personally I have a hard time looking past OD when I see those last 3 Timeform ratings of 124, 116, 124+ leading into this race. For comparison purposes, Swain & Giant’s Causeway sported 128’s through 132’s going into their 2nd place finishes in previous Classics. If she repeats one of those 124’s, she’s a winner.
Race 6 - The Juvenile
The Mile and a Sixteenth Juvenile will most likely drift from standard trends this year due to the fact that only 8 two year old colts are running, and on paper at least it looks like a 3 horse race between Roman Ruler, Proud Accolade and Afleet Alex.
Although the 3 likely choices will be tough to beat, one has to hope for a continuation of the trend that has seen countless long shots settle into the runner-up spot. The race has averaged more than 12 starters a year since its inception, but with only 8 this year it is doubtful we'll see the kind of 1-2 combo that has averaged a $400 Exacta in its history. Personally, I’m thinking of tossing RR because his lone effort over a distance of ground was a win over a usually speedy SA track but he did it a full second slower than the other two favs in here. I just can’t convince myself that SA is a full second slower than Bel – but I could be wrong. I will be taking a hard look at Consolidator and Sun King as possible upsetters.
Race 7 - The Turf
I never thought I'd see the day when the Breeders' Cup Turf would be run with only a single European runner in the field. But that is the case in 2004 as none of the stars of the other continent with the exception of Powerscourt have joined the festivities.
Where are this year's High Chaparral, Falbrav, Sulamani and Bright Sky? Are there no runners such as Fantastic Light, Milan, Kalanisi, Daylami or Royal Anthem available to make the trip?Why has Bago" decided to stay away? Why did Sulamani end his career in Canada last week rather than in Texas this week? Supplemental fees might be a part of it, but there has to be something else going on. Suffice it to say that something is amiss when only 8 runners show up this year, 9 in 2003 and 8 in 2002 when there had only been less than 11 once (10 in 1992) since 1988.
The absence of European based or bred horses is even more suspicious considering that the last 5 BC Turfs have been won by an invader…Daylami, Kalanisi, Fantastic Light and High Chaparral twice (DH with Johar last year).
Even though the average size of the Turf field has been 12 horses (despite the shrinkage of the last few years) since its inception, and the demands of 12 furlongs is telling at times, favorites have more than held their own in this race, winning 40% of the 20 runnings.
Just as in the other two Turf races, on the lead is not the place to be in this race. Only 2 winners have gone wire to wire, and just as is the case in the Mile and in the Filly and Mare Turf, the place to be at first call is settled some 4-6 lengths off the pace.
Prior success at the distance and/or on the surface is not an absolute prerequisite either, as a number of horses have come from the dirt to win or stretched out off shorter distances. However, neither distance nor lack of experience on the turf is a factor this year because all 8 of the contestants have been 10-12 furlongs and on the grass in at least their last two races.
One thing that does seem to be a prerequisite, however, is conditioning. Heading into the race most of the triumphant Turf runners had at least two races since July, and a number had as many as four: although recently both Fantastic Light and High Chaparral came in light on race conditioning.
I have to stick with the Euros again in here – PC backed up be Yeasterday and Magistretti. OK, I’ll have saver tickets with KJ just in case.
Race 8 - The Classic
.Pleasantly Perfect (the defending champ) and Birdstone (the Belmont and Travers Stakes winner) will be considered among the horses to beat by most of the bettors, and one of them just might win it too. But each will be trying to rewrite a history that has never seen a horse off the race track for more than 50 days prior to running, win this race. Both have had vacations that extend quite a bit longer than the 50 day barrier. The former has been away 69 days and the latter 63.
A number of the others in the field have taken turns beating each other in the older Graded Stakes Division all year. Funny Cide, Newfoundland, Perfect Drift, Bowman's Band, Freefourinternet, Ghostzapper, Dynever and Roses In May have all met at least once, and in most cases multiple times in 2004.
Conditioning is not the only demand. No winner of the Classic has ever done so without having won at the 10 furlong distance beforehand. Unbelievably, that would prove problematic for 7 of the 13 entered, and if you think to eliminate Pleasantly Perfect and Birdstone from the probable winners' circle visitor list you are left with just 4 horses that could win the race Adding to the credence of this argument for eliminating some of the more obvious choices is the fact that only 5 favorites have won in 20 years. More than half the winners have been double digit payouts, including a pair of 19-1 shots, a 31-1 shot, returning champ Pleasantly Perfect at 14-1 last year, and the forgettable Volponi at 43-1 in 2002. If you can find your way past the trends working against their mounts, Pat Day on Azeri and Bailey on Pleasantly Perfect, you might want to consider that between them those jockeys have won 8 of the 20 Classics (4 each).
The only wire-to-wire winner was Black Tie Affair in 1991, although a handful won from just off the pace. But predominantly the winner has been a closer, many from as far back or further than the 10 lengths behind at first call last year's winner overcame. If you are inclined to value age over youth and think being a 3 year old is a problem, don't. There may be only a trio of 3 yr olds this year, but that age group has managed to win 7 of the 20 Classics.
The trend at Lone Star in these long distance dirt races favors early speed, pressers and close up stalkers. That runs counter to the history of the race which has mostly gone to off the pace runners. But remember one thing. Lone Star does not generally see this caliber horse. They have a steady diet of first and second level allowance competitors and claimers, and those kinds of runners usually go as fast as they can for as long as they can, making those behind them chase fractions determined by the front runner and uncomfortable for those chasing. It is often a war of attrition and not necessarily a product of talent. The horses that will line up in this year’s Classic have quite a bit more versatility than that.
I’ve narrowed my selections so far to Dynever (just because of the similarity to Cat Thief), Ghostzapper (Just can’t deny those huge performance figs in his last 3 races), and Roses in May. I wouldn’t be surprised if I added another longshot to the list if my $300 bankroll for the PK-3’s isn’t depleted by then.
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