It used to be that no sprint winner came out of any post beyond the 7th post. Cajun beat overcame that last year but looking at the old past perfs, he had such blazing speed numbers coming into the race in the E1 and E2 spots that it was not at all surprising to see him beat the jinx. I don't see him coming in with the same stats this time. Gold storm trained by bubba does however have some gaudy early speed numbers. Otherwise i look to see the winner and likely other in the money finishers come from posts 1-7 again.
The sprint this year sets up again to favor E and E/P horses who draw a post between 4 and 7. In addition the winner should show certain flexibility of style...that is, he must have won both from the front and from a stalking position. The idea being, if he cannot get the lead, he has the ability to come from slightly off the pace. Or maybe his connections decide to let a couple of horses beat each other's brains in, before he makes his move. The key is...he must be very close at the top of the stretch. He must have shown the ability to do the above against top competition at 6F. Three horses make the grade...Speightstown, Champali, and Cajun Beat. Beat would have to overcome a strong bias against the outside posts. Champali seems to be the "hot pick" right now. Note: The second race after a layoff angle fits Speightstown. His last appears to be nothing more than a workout...after he had trouble out of the gate. I suspect the public may have jumped ship for no reason. Also notice he has not been out of the money in his last 10 starts, even though he endured a strong battle in 8 of those. He's tough. Good luck.
This guy is all set to head to Kentucky, this will be his last race. I'm sure even if the deal is signed there are some riders in the contract for additional money if he gets a G1 and/or an eclipse award.
I think they're just taking one last shot. Pletcher is a layoff trainer, you usually don't see big moves forward after he's been training one up to a race.
The connections would have loved to get while the getting was good in the Forego, but they didn't. Also, look at this guy's pp's lifetime, once he throws a sub-par effort that has been historically followed by one of his traditional 12+ month vacations. jmho