To my way of thinking, 3 of the Breeders Cup races now have established favorites.
Juvenile - First Samarai
Juvenile Fillies - Adieu
Sprint - Lost In The Fog
Ashado should be favored in the Distaff, but Stellar Jayne is the wise-gal, and could actually go favored
Favoritism in the Mile and the Turf can't really be established because of the unknown Euro contingent, but Leroidesanimeaux holds the upper hand in the betting in the Mile, and should go off favored in that one. Favoritism in the 12f Turf is up for grabs.
The Filly & Mare Turf is about as wide open as it's ever been since it's inaugural in 1999. If Ouija Board comes over to defend, she will probably be the favorite.
The Classic is just crazy this year. There's been moaning and wailing and knashing of teeth over the quality that will be assembled......and that's one thing. Trying to detemine a favorite at this point is another.
It's perceived that St Liam has distance issues.
Rock Hard Ten will come into the race with one prep off of a 7-month lay.....and Papa M has never won a Breeders Cup race anywhere but at Santa Anita.
Borrego had never won a stakes race before his Pacific Classic win.....and then he freaked in the JCGC......but will he be perceived as being that good..
And then there's Afleet Alex. If he makes it to the race, what will the betting public do with him?
I think if Hurricane Run shows up for the Turf he'd be a clear betting favorite-even though Shakespeare is undefeated.Shakespeare was life and death against English Channel and visually that Arc race was awesome.
The Classic is going to be intriguing if Afleet Alex shows up.In my mind RHT should be the clear betting favorite-there are no holes in his resume since he's been in the Mandella barn.Afleet Alex is a great horse,but would be an awful favorite given his circumstances and the competition,
St Liam will probably be the favorite,because he's the only close to the pace horse out of the top 4(Alex,RHT and Borrego all come from out of it)and this race may not have a ton of pace with all of the defections.Also,St Liam is clearly the fastest numberswise Beyers,T-Graph and Rag if I'm not mistaken.Throw in Bailey and people will overlook the distance question.
It doesn't matter who shows up for the Mile-Leroid will be a giant favorite-he's won something like 7(?)straight and Dubawi is retired.Starcraft could take some money,but nothing like Leroi and the rest of any possible Euro's all have at least one bad looking race somewhere in their recent form.
Ouija Board is the one favorite that looks seriously vulnerable.
I think Folklore will be close to co-favorite off her last with Adieu.
I was hoping Stellar Jayne wouldn't be the wise guy horse in the Distaff-maybe 3rd choice behind Ashado and Happy Ticket.Happy Ticket was 10-1 in her last and she was cutting into Ashado's lead in a paceless race.I think she's going to take a lot of money this time around as the wise guy horse.Stellar Jayne is lightly raced,and even with Bailey might not get hammered.I love her here-if no one one wants the lead she can wire,and she's tractable if there is speed.I have her and RHT as my two best bets of the day if they don't get screwed up with bad posts.
Looking over the races from Saturday,I have to conclude that Adieu will be a vulnerable favorite in the Juvenile Filly race.Her race went in these splits:
22.29 45.26 110.94 138.07 She ran well,but was coming home kind of slow,and an extra 1/16th isn't really going to help her.
In an earlier race in a 2yo maiden special weight they went 22.60 45.41 111.10 137.47
I don't know who is good in the 2yo filly division,but I think Adieu is worth betting against at 1 1/16th as a favorite.
Big, I have to disagree with you about Shakespeare......in spite of what Jerry said after the race. I think Bailey had that race measured. I think Shakespeare had more left in the tank and Jerry knew it.
If you look at the replay, you will see that just before the wire, Shakespeare was starting to widen his margin. He turned what looked like a nose into a head.
I don't think it was quite the life and death effort. Shakespeare was the best horse, but I don't think he emptied the tank........it was easier than it looked.
