Interesting that he's riding Sweet Symphony in the Distaff over Stellar Jayne.
Also he's riding High Fly in the sprint over Silver Wagon.
Trying to get the mount on Ouija Board-sounds like he might.Fallon on Mona Lisa,and Dettori on Sundrop.If he can't get Ouija Board his second choice is Sand Springs.
Frankie on Sundrop is interesting. She was right there in her last and I thought for a while she would win. Maybe with two under her belt stateside she's ready?
This message has been edited by frangooch on Oct 18, 2005 9:23 AM
The Sweet Symphony mount is about Mott and 2006. Also with Stellar Jayne wanting the front end that could make Ashado vulnerable and bring a replay of the Personal Ensign where a off the pace type gets the money. Silver Wagon wasn't going to win at 6f anyhow. Be careful with Bailey and his agent come the BC. Keep in mind he didn't win his first BC until Pat Day had already won 6 and he's got 14 to Pay(pun intended) Day's 12. If he gets Ouija Board you're looking at her, First Samurai, Shakespeare and Saint Liam being 4 1st or 2nd choices. Not bad for this vantage point.
FWIW, I like Stevie Wonder Boy as the big money bet of the day. Peace.
"If he (Bailey) can't get Ouija Board his second choice is Sand Springs"
Big, if Sand Springs goes at all, she'll go in the Mile, and Ouija Board is slated for the F&M Turf. There are probably several in the Mile that, if Jerry has a choice, he would ride before Sand Springs, Mott notwithstanding.
I love Sand Springs in a huge way, but I hope she doesn't go. She'll get chewed up pretty badly in there I fear. She's a quality mare with a ton of heart but against Leroy and Singletary.......and a couple of strong Euros thrown in?
I don't think so.
This message has been edited by Paseana on Oct 18, 2005 11:21 AM
Not discounting JB's acumen nor his agent when it comes to the biggest day of races. However, in the context of the three races we're discussing, I'm still of the opinion he doesn't hit the winner's circle. Ouija might get him there or he get her there, at expected low odds I will try to beat her. That's not to say I'll toss her entirely, if I did that, Jerry would surely manage to bite me in the ass.
Ashado is a verified beast at Belmont, 4 of 6 lifetime and never out of the money. Stellar Jayne and her could well be a two horse battle to the wire with the others trailing in their wake.
Still prefer either their chances over Sweet.
Silver Wagon's outing in the Vosburgh was his first attempt at 6 furlongs and Ziadie knows how to get them cranked up pretty good. I'd be very surprised to see him less than 15-1 and at those odds is well worth a play.
Best,
Forego
Update: Steve -- don't know if he can make the Sprint field or not with the selection committee or however they are doing it these days. I was hoping the Vosburgh was the proverbial prep for the Sprint.
This message has been edited by Forego on Oct 18, 2005 12:55 PM This message has been edited by Forego on Oct 18, 2005 12:13 PM
Agree with you, gooch! I had a live pick going worth nearly 2K with Sundrop last out and deep stretch I thought she had made the winning move. Slow work today but on dirt. Could be interesting with Frankie, as you say.
I'm with you Croix on Stevie Wonderboy. I like his progression from race to race and I think he will absolutely love Belmont. The price is going to be there and Gomez is unreal right now.
Guys,
Sorry to disagree, but I think Stevie Wonderboy is going to be a big underlay and terrible value. He will be coming into the race off a long layoff and even though his last race was visually impressive, he didn't run very fast. I'm not saying he can't win, but the value will not be there. He might be second or third choice behind Samurai.
Steve
P.S. And this opinion is from another "Stevie Wonderboy" who happens to love Stephen Got Even as a sire!!
Forego,
I hope you're right. I also thought the Vosburgh would be a great prep for Silver Wagon. Don't know if anyone can beat the beast LITF, but if the speed collapses, maybe Silver Wagon can get a piece.
Steve
Honestly Steve and maybe this is a bit unrealistic on my part, but I am assuming that Stevie Wonderboy could get away around 6-1 or in that range. Obviously First Samurai will go off the fav which I'm hoping is a heavy one at that. Sorceror's Stone has a decent following and will get bet. I'm hoping as well that people will bet Henny Hughes a good deal seeing that while he ran 2nd to First Samurai, he was still 10 clear of the 3rd place finisher while up on a very hot pace. In addition To these horses, Private Vow will take money as well. I don't think that I'm being completely unrealistic(I hope not) that I can get between 6-1 and 8-1 on Stevie which in my mind is excellent value.
Dream on Mike! If you do get 6/1, that would be good value, but I don't see it. Sorcerer's Stone is a Midwest horse and won't get the respect he deserves, and I think the public has already had their fill of Henny Hughes and will not touch him at 1 1/16 miles. Private Vow will definitely take money, but I honestly think Stevie is second choice at 3/1 or 7/2.
Steve
Tempera went straight from a loss as the fave in the Del Mar Debutant at 7f to Habibti to a BC Juvy Fillies romp and I see SWB getting the same outside trip with a move around the turn to get into the mix with First Samurai. He'll be fresh and ready with GG looking for his 1st BC win. His DM Futurity win was all that and then some, irrespective of the Beyer. Trust Me.
I think Stevie will win the race drawing away, but I see him as second choice or possible even co-favorite. 4-1, at best, probably lower. If he's anywhere near 6/1, mortgage the house.