ProPro is out of town through the Cup, but sent me an email. The only horse he mentioned was Azamour.
Ill be looking at the PPs tonight and tomorrow, but Ill open it open it up for discussion now.
We have $72 to play with. Ill suggest 1x4x4 Tri PW for half our money and a 3x3x4x4 Super for the other half. But lets see how many we like and we can construct something based on that....
In regards to the Europeans its really a matter of turf condition IMO.
Azamour is the best of the bunch,but over soft turf he's not quite the same.Bago can run over anything,and Shirocco loves the soft going.
If its good turf I think Azamour is the way to go.Yielding or soft Bago and or Shirocco.
Alkaaseed need good to firm to be a factor and Ace has to have firm.They would be more for the bottom of the ticket anyway.
As far as the Americans go- my preference would be Fourty Niners Son who at least ran well on yielding turf at Arlington.I'd really like him if the course was good-firm.I think he's a bit better than Better Talk Now.I don't give English Channel much of a chance,and I don't have a feel for Shakespeare.If he's preferred by others I certainly couldn't argue with his record or his connections,but for some reason he doesn't excite me.
>>>>I think [49ers Son]'s a bit better than Better Talk Now.
Even if it's yielding?
Ill preface by saying Im a bit biased since I had Better Talk Now last year, but I dont understand the general lack of respect he gets. Wasnt Kitten's Joy a "monster" last year? Wasnt he even a HOY candidate if he wouldve won the Turf? From what Ive seen (especially on the off going) this years top horses arent much better looking coming in than KJ was last year.
FWIW, BTK's Man O'War PF of -95 is the second only to Leroi for best PF on the grass this year. And thats one of 2 or 3 similar numbers he's put up which are far better than anything any of the US horses have ever done in their careers. And he's likely to get let off at what? 8-1? 10-1?
I have them as the two best Americans and maybe the two best in the race.Like you,I don't think the Europeans have to win the race,but in my post I was just seperating them by American/Euro.
I think Graham Motion is the best Turf trainer anywhere right now.My big investment for the day will be on Film Maker,who at 5 is coming up to her race much like BTN was his last year at 5.
Fourty Niners Son beat BTN from behind at Arlington over a yielding course in August at equal weights.BTN made a wide move off the turn and flattened a touch.I think his ideal distance however is at the 1 1/2.FNS was bogged down inside and when he finally got room was going best near the wire.BTN is a given at 1 1/2,while FNS finishes very well at 1 1/4 so I feel like he'll have the same punch at the added distance.FNS is four so I think he's got more room to improve,while with BTN at 6 I think we've already seen his best which is still very good.BTN will probably run his race,but in these situation I prefer an improving 4yo to the 6yo.Drysdale is excellent and Nakatani always saves ground with this horse.I think the two horses are close,and BTN will probably be the shorter of the two oddswise.
If you wanted to put BTN on top I'm fine with it-he's the known commodity.My instincts which are usually wrong when it comes to horses tell me FNS.Any way you want to do it is fine with me.I'm just happy to be involved.
>>>My big investment for the day will be on Film Maker,who at 5 is coming up to her race much like BTN was his last year at 5.
Now youre talking!!!
Last year I decided to concentrate on my strengths and only played the two turf races. My key horses were Film Maker and BTK. Ill be with you the former again this year.
>>>BTN will probably run his race,but in these situation I prefer an improving 4yo to the 6yo.
Makes perfect sence. We'll see what the other two have to say before we make a decision on who to key.
Any suggestions for how we spend the money? Should we just go deep on the Super or play a tri also?
Hi Guys
Now that Shake the Bank is in I like Better Talk Now even more. He will get the pace he needs and I'm a big Ramon Dominguiz fan. Motion looking to get his horse it's due respect.
Of all the invaders I am leaning towards Shirocco...3rd race back off a years layoff...Decent 4th in the Arc last out and has won 2 G1's at this distance both on soft turf courses. Was hoping to use Alkaased but I see he has been scratched.
Shakespeare & English Channel show up everytime
And to add spice to the superfecta don't neglect Gun Salute....only a 1/2 length stops him from having won 5 in a row....May not be Mott-Bailly but Mott-C. Velasquez is a pretty good match.
I would suggest keying Better Talk Now over Shirocco/English Channel/Shakespeare/Gun Salute For $1 total cost $24
Good Luck everyone and thanks for giving me the chance to be involved with Team Schwingle Milt Terf
I'm awful with constructing bets like tris and supers.I'd leave the increments and types of wagers up to you.I rank them like this:
Fourty Niners Son
BTN
Bago
Shirocco
It seems we have a consensus pending ProPro input on BTN being some sort of a key.If you decide to move FNS to the bottom of the tickets or out no problem.I know you're a final quarter guy,and his are killer from what I can see,which is why I like him so much.Whatever you decide to do is fine.
When you figure out what you're doing with Film Maker let me know in terms of tri or super bets.Beyond her I can't make heads or tails of the race.I'll have her in the pk 3 and 4's and then some type of exacta wheel-but I need help with the tri and super bets.I was liking Wend as some sort of a key horse underneath,but I don't think she'll like the off going.Any suggestions?
Here's the analysis I sent out to the BC syndicate:
This one has me somewhat befuddled, but Ill take a stab. Ive "narrowed" it down to 5 to consider.
Not much seems to seperate Shirocco and Bago. They both appear to like soft ground and the difference in the Arc could well be atributed to both Bago's prefference for that course and the fact that it wasnt quite as soft as Shirocco might have liked. (Note that the Arc PPs say soft, but some Euro pubs have it listed as Good/Soft as the rain came shortly before the race.) With the severe and consistent rain the last two weeks, Id give Shirroco the nod to turn the tables on Bago. (The "value" question is obvious. ML of 20-1 vs. 5-1).
Azamour is a definite question. Arguably the most talented of the field, there are reasonable questions about his ability to handle a yielding or worse track (though his connections dont admit to that). He owns a good win over Bago 2 back, but that could be written off to Bago's back trouble and the ground. At 7-2, he's a tough play based on the questions surrounding his ability to handle the track. At the same time, he'd be very tough to leave off of multi-race tickets due to his class alone.
I love Better Talk Now (I gave him out in last years BC and he paid me very well). He has done nothing this year to show me he's off form, he has his rabbit and then best turf trainer in the country. Morevoer, although this is clearly a contentious filed, Im not convinced that it is any better at the top than last years (just deeper perhaps). Frankly, Id put a healthy Powerscourt right at the top here and BTK managed to beat him last year. I also have a definite affinity for returner's to the BC (can still remember the feeling of my jaw hitting the Santa Anita infield when I saw I was getting 7-1 on defending champ High Chapparal).
Shakespeare is the toughest one for me to figure. He's undoubtedly talented (right up there with Azamour perhaps), but I just feel like he hasnt shown me enough in top competition, nor has he proved himself on an off track. (My opinion may be tainted by my lack of respect for Ace and English Channel in this spot; the latter I feel Shake the Bank will burn to the ground.) The other thing is that a review of past winners (with particular reference to the PFs the last 5 years) shows that the BC Turf is generally won by an experienced horse whose run and won under a variety of conditions and has demonstrated a significant measure of consistency. Even the only 3yo to win the last 6 years (High Chap in 2002) had 8 career starts and had shown well against the best in the Arc. Shakespeare reminds me somewhat of a less-experienced Kitten's Joy. An impressive string of wins but lacking in terms of class testing.
As for bottom of the ticket fillers, I can certainly see both Silverfoot and Fourty Niners Son make an appearance. Both have the running style and history that say they'll appreciate the pace and track. In other years I might even give them a shot, but with so much talent at the top of the field, I think it unlikely they can win.
English Channel and Ace would be 2nd tier to begin with and are tosses due to pace.
I suppose I could see Gun Salute holding to 3rd or 4th and couldnt object to his inclusion on the bottom of exotics purely based on the fact that he moves up significantly on an off track and he's a bit more versatile than English or Ace.
The rest are nonfactors.
In terms of pure chances to win, my order of preference is:
1. Better Talk Now
t2. Bago/Shirocco
4. Azamour
5. Shakespeare
Taking the ML into consideration, Shirocco must be moved up along with BTK into the first position.
For referience, though I said Ill try to play to my strengths and only wager the Turf races, this race is too deep for me to attack the tri. Ill limit myself to exacta boxes using BTK and Shirroco. (Though for our purposes I think this a race where a super play may be in order).
After looking at the entire card (and considering the defection of RHT), my biggest play of the day will likely be a Daily Double of BTK and Shirroco to Borrego.
Our 4 horse super box will be:
Better Talk Now, Shirroco, 49ers Son, Azamour
In sturctring a tri, I was going to key BTN in the 1 and 2 holes with the remainder of our picks as filler as a 1x4x7 and 4x1x7. But as it seems to be drying out, I agree wholeheartedly with Big that it moves Azamour up, so Ill put him up top instead. Our tri will be
Azamour, Better Talk Now
Az, BTN, Shirroco, 49ers Son, Bago
Az, BTN, Shirroco, 49ers Son, Bago, Gun Salute, English Channel, Shakespeare