Like Larry, I publish my Breeders Cup analysis for my friends. Here is this year's analysis if anyone is interested.
DISTAFF
1) IN THE GOLD
2) PLEASANT HOME
3) ASHADO
3) SOCIETY SELECTION
Longshot: NOTHING BUT FUN
Three year olds have had good success in this race winning at a 33% clip (7 for 21). IN THE GOLD has always had class
and she looks to be peaking at the right time for our favorite trainer Nick Zito. She's 2 for 3 at Belmont, and can sit a
stalking trip behind the speed. Her last race at 1 1/8 miles in the Gazelle was her breakthrough race and with the way she's
been training, we think she's sitting on another big race. PLEASANT HOME is trained by Shug McGaughey, who has one of
the best records in the Breeders Cup. She's another one who has come to hand at the right time and her last two appearances
in Grade 1 competition set her up perfectly. Nothing needs to be said about defending champ ASHADO. When she's good,
she's one of the best, but she might have company on the front end. At the short price, we'll try to beat her. NOTHING BUT FUN
is undefeated and even though she is stepping up she might be this good. SOCIETY SELECTION and STELLAR JAYNE can
also be in the mix.
BETTING STRATEGY: We think IN THE GOLD will be in the 10/1-15/1 range so she's the play to win. If PLEASANT HOME is
the 30/1 we think she will be, she's also worth a flier.
JUVENILE FILLIES
1) SENSATION
2) FOLKLORE
3) ORIGINAL SPIN
Longshot: KNIGHTS TEMPLAR
In a race where we feel the favorites are vulnerable, we'll take a shot with SENSATION who will be a decent price. She started
her career with two impressive wins, and was then thrown into the Grade 2 Spinaway, where she never fired. Her trainer
said it might have been a case of too much too soon, and we're willing to throw the race out. After a short freshening, she
came back and won the Astarita with a Beyer of 98, which is the second highest in the field (Folklore ran a 99). Although she
didn't beat much, and she never has run this far, we like the way she did it, and she is 2 for 2 at Belmont. FOLKLORE is the
horse to beat after her 14 length runaway in the Matron. She will probably be co-favored with ADIEU. ADIEU will be a short
price, but her Beyers are on the light side and we don't think she's good value. ORIGINAL SPIN is undefeated and Jerry
Bailey is very high on her after her last workout, which was excellent. She might be this good. KNIGHTS TEMPLAR ships
in from Canada after an impressive win in the Mazarine and has the highest speed figure at the distance.
BETTING STRATEGY: We'll play SENSATION to win but we're going 4 deep in the Pick 3.
MILE
1) LEROIDESANIMAUX
2) LIMEHOUSE
3) WHIPPER
Longshot: GORELLA
Another race where we hate to pick the chalk, but LEROIDESANIMAUX might be the best American miler since Lure, who
won this race twice. He proved he can handle soft turf in his last and as long as he gets a clean trip, he will be very tough to beat.
LIMEHOUSE is an interesting longshot. Good enough on dirt to be favored at 8/5 against Borrego and Lava Man in July, his first
race on turf was much better than it looks. Although he had all kinds of trouble, he rallied and was only beaten 1 1/4 lengths
by Funfair and Artie Schiller who are two top competitors in this race. Sired by "hidden turf sire" Grand Slam, and trained by the
ever dangerous Todd Pletcher, he can hit the board at a huge price. WHIPPER was our selection in this race last year when he
fired. He's back again this year and the soft turf can only help his chances. GORELLA is a 3 year old filly who was banging
heads with the best milers in Europe (Starcraft, Divine Proportions). She shipped to the States and ran a fast closing third
in the QEII after a slow start. The mile is more her game and she should be in the picture.
BETTING STRATEGY:
LEROIDESANIMAUX will be odds on, so we'll play him on top of our other 3 picks. The exactas should be decent. We'll take a
shot with LIMEHOUSE to win at projected odds of 30/1 and maybe a few bucks on Gorella at 25/1.
SPRINT
1) GYGISTAR
2) LOST IN THE FOG
3) LION TAMER
3) WILDCAT HEIR
Longshot: IMPERIALISM
Realistically, we don't know if anyone can even get close to LOST IN THE FOG, who might be the best sprinter this country has
seen in many years, but we're going out on a limb and picking GYGISTAR. This old man (6 years old) has been one of our
favorites since he won the Riva Ridge on Belmont day in 2003. He loves Belmont where he's 5 for 8, and has been training
unbelievably good. Granted, 6 furlongs is not his best distance, but he's shortening up for this race, and if somehow LOST IN
THE FOG gets caught in a speed duel, we think he will be there to pick up the pieces. Any horse that can run a 115 Beyer at
the age of 6, has to be respected. Although LOST IN THE FOG has never faced this quality of horses, if he's as good as he
seems, everyone is running for second. LION TAMER might be along for a piece. WILDCAT HEIR is a real speedball who might
give LOST IN THE FOG fits on the front end. If the speed totally collapses, look for IMPERIALISM to be flying in the stretch.
BETTING STRATEGY: We'll play GYGISTAR win and place at projected odds of 35/1. We also like the exacta of LOST IN THE
FOG over GYGISTAR.
FILLY AND MARE TURF
1) ANGARA
2) OUIJA BOARD
3) FILM MAKER
Longshot: KAREN'S CAPER
We've been on ANGARA since the summer, when she won the Beverly D on a soft turf. She then ran an even 5th against
males in the Man O' War. Included in that group was Better Talk Now, who won the Turf last year and is one of the favorites
for this year's Turf, and Relaxed Gesture who came back and destroyed a top field at Woodbine (including Electrocutionist and
Grey Swallow). Her last was too bad to be true and we are going to throw it out. She gets back Gary Stevens and the soft turf
moves her up. The only draw back is she drew post position 14, but we hope she can work out a good trip. She will be a big
price. OUIJA BOARD won this race last year and appears to be back in form. If she is, she will tough to beat. FILM MAKER
ran second in this race last year and always seems to get a piece of the purse, althought she rarely wins. KAREN'S CAPER
was running with top notch fillies in Europe and unlucky when she lost by a nose in the QEII. She has never been this distance
but we think she can be competetive. WONDER AGAIN loves the soft turf.
BETTING STRATEGY: ANGARA is the play to win and place at projected odds of 25/1. We'll go 3 or 4 deep in the pick 3 and
also bet an exacta using OUIJA BOARD on top of our other plays.
JUVENILE
1) FIRST SAMURAI
2) SORCERERS STONE
3) STEVIE WONDERBOY
Longshot: LEO
We usually don't like to pick favorites, but FIRST SAMURAI looks like the real deal. His speed figures tower over the rest of
the field, and Jerry Bailey has called him the best two year old he's ever ridden. Our only concern is the fact that he has gone
out fast and come home slowly in most of his races and has a tendency to bear out, usually the sign of a green horse. We
think that Bailey is smart enough not to get caught in a speed duel and can sit chilly and make his run turning for home.
SORCERERS STONE is an undefeated Gulch colt, who looks like he can be any kind. If First Samurai falters he is the most
likely candidate to pick up the pieces. STEVIE WONDERBOY looked very impressive when he made a sweeping move
winning the Del Mar futurity, but he hasn't been out in 52 days and his Beyers are on the light side. LEO ships in from Europe,
and Europeans have won 2 out of the last 4 runnings of this race. He ran second to Horatio Nelson, who is the best 2 year
old in Europe, and the horse he beat in his last came back to win a Grade 1. This race is very deep, and PRIVATE VOW,
SUPERFLY, and DR. PLEASURE all have a shot
BETTING STRATEGY: We'll be using FIRST SAMURAI on most of our pick 3 tickets, but we'll spread around with some
others. If SORCERERS STONE is higher than 6/1 he's worth a shot and LEO is a saver at projected odds of 30/1.
TURF
1) SHIROCCO
2) BAGO
3) BETTER TALK NOW
3) SHAKESPEARE
Longshot: NONE
SHIROCCO is one of the best bets on the card. He's a Grade 1 winner at 1 1/2 miles in two countries (Germany and Italy) and
he thrives on soft going. This is his third race back off the layoff, and his last, a rallying 4th in the Arc, should set him up
perfectly. In addition he's trained by one of the best in Europe, Andre Fabre. BAGO is another top class European who won the
Arc last year and was third in this year's Arc. The only knock against him is his 0 for 6 record at the 1 1/2 mile distance. Overall
we think the Europeans will be better suited for the turf conditions. BETTER TALK NOW won this race last year and with
an honest pace, he should be running late. SHAKESPEARE is undefeated, but this might be a big step up for him, especially
on soft turf.
BETTING STRATEGY: SHIROCCO is the play to win at possible odds of 8/1 or higher.
CLASSIC
1) ROCK HARD TEN
2) BORREGO
3) STARCRAFT
Longshot: SUAVE
We've always felt that ROCK HARD TEN is the best horse in training, and there's no reason to think differently now. He's been
handled with kid gloves by Mandella, and has been aimed at this race all year. The only drawback is that he suffered a foot
bruise a few days ago, but we don't think Mandella would run him if he wasn't 100%. BORREGO has really blossomed in his last
two races and although he will probably be outrun early, he should be flying late. STARCRAFT comes here with lofty reputation
and the fact he tries this race instead of the Mile says a lot about the his owner's confidence in him. SUAVE has developed
nicely and can get a piece. The 1 1/4 miles might be a little out of his range, but SUN KING will make his presence felt.
BETTING STRATEGY: If ROCK HARD TEN is at least 3/1, he's the play to win.
|