I am drained personally. This day is like no other for a bettor and a fan. Aggravation set in early when there was no available seating in a decent area and I was basically standing until after the Juvenile. My pops was called away on a business trip so he had it nice watching the races on NBC and betting through his online account. I should have been so smart. My thoughts on each Breeder's Cup race are as follows:
Juvenile Fillies: Visually I thought Folklore was very impressive. I thought she'd have to run hard from the inside from the start and that would make it tough on her late. That is why I made Wild Fit my top pick in the race. Edgar got her out there nice and easy and gave her a beautiful ride. Wild Fit made it close at the end, but even without the trouble she encountered, she wasn't catching Folklore.
Juvenile: Nice to know that it only took two Breeder's Cup races before I got aggravated. Not sure if anyone else here was at the Meadowlands encountered this problem, but with a few minutes to the Juvenile, all machines said betting was off. My dad had the same trouble with his New Jersey online account and called me up literally like he was about to tear someone apart. Ultimately it is my fault for liking Stevie Wonderboy for some time now, but waiting until late to bet. He was very impressive and his final time was very good. I love the progression he has made from race to race and with natural improvement as a 3 year old, he may have an excellent chance at finally getting rid of this dopey Juvenile jinx.
Filly and Mare Turf: Here is why too much information is a negative for a handicapper. Jason and myself had been talking about the Breeder's Cup around a week and a half ago. We both agreed that Inercontinental could be live at a price. So us being the morons that we can be at times lol, we go back and watch a replay of her last race. We see a slow pace and Wend gaining on her late after a tough trip. We're both like nope sorry, no shot, next please. This is where I fell in love with Wend after seeing her wide trip and strong finish. Well that was genius as Wend had nothing after a perfect trip and Intercontinetal won the Filly and Mare Turf as if it were a public workout. Luckily this race did not cost me any of my pick 3's and pick 4 as I missed the Sprint race. No more race replays for me ever again lol.
Sprint: Silver Train ran a great race, but Taste of Paradise fans definitely have a case that with a clear path he wins. My hats off to Silver Train though on a great race. Foggy had nothing in the lane. I was a bit shocked. He's had a long campaign and will be back. As far as my pick Battle Won. He showed speed then stopped alot sooner than I ever expected. I'll hammer him in Kentucky, but leave him alone in any other state from now on.
Mile: My hats off to Artie on a tremendous race. The fan in me is a bit bitter though. Leroy and the whole bar shoes thing I'm a bit disappointed in. I feel like I didn't get to see the real Leroy yesterday. I feel like the battle I should have gotten to see I didn't. Leroy held on for 2nd on determination and class alone. Again though, congrats to Artie and an unbelievable ride by Gomez.
Distaff: Sad to see Ashado not come out on top in here. Her trip was not ideal, but all it cost her was 2nd money. No one was beating Pleasant Home yesterday. As a double kick in the a$$ here, not only do I lose the pick 4 as I had Ashado singled, but Ashado losing 2nd cost me a very nice exacta. Good job on my willingness to box the exacta, but single in the pick 4. It only paid like $8600 for a buck. I think my love of Ashado got in the way here. It can happen to the best of us lol.
Turf: All the Europeans as usual and no real surpise. Shakespeare had nothing and Bailey said he didn't like the turf. I was ready for a nap.
Classic: Saint Liam did what he was supposed to and won. He's damn nice horse, but he still never gave me the feeling that a Ghostzapper or Afleet Alex ever gave me. Not sure why as this horse is a damn good horse and gets to go out in style with winning the Classic. Flower Alley ran a huge race and showed a ton of heart. Perfect Drift is the working man's horse. All this horse does is show up and run his race. He's always right around there and gives his all. Gotta respect that.
All in all it was a good day although somewhat aggravating at times. Breeder's Cup day is just what they want it to be. It is a day of championship racing and the greatest day to gamble. awesome day that I absolutely love. I realized something yesterday that I wasn't aware of. There isn't any event that I get as excited about as the Kentucky Derby. I thought The Breeder's Cup was it, but it's not even close. The Derby is a crazy race with way too many horses allowed in it, but it's the Derby. There's not enough gambling in the world that gets me as excited as that race. I hope everyone made out well and enjoys this little lull that we get in the racing world now.
This message has been edited by Boozer_1 on Oct 30, 2005 5:08 PM
In the Juv Fillies Prado did a great job of suckering Gary Stevens to come up on his inside down the backstretch on that Canadian Filly-the rail really wasn't the place to be early on.
Juvenile-I ended up on Henny Hughes-trainer change,rider change and first Lasix and his odds were good.Had a saver with Stevieboy on top so I guess I can't complain,but Henny ran a damn good race.
FMTURF-I was all over Film Maker and as usual not a perfect trip for her.Clipped heels and shuffled all the way back because of Sundrop on the first turn-again left with way too much to do in the stretch.I can't complain because Ouija Board who had a wide wide trip held her off for second.Did get 6.40 to show so I didn't get completely buried.Jerry Bailey said Intercontinental couldn't get the distance-but with the easy pace she could.
SPRINT-hardly bet the race,the horse I thought would stalk -Lifestyle got buried out of the gate so the race was over for me in the first few jumps.The pace set up perfect for the 1-2-3 runners in the tri.
MILE-while Leroid is a monster,seeing he was running in Aluminum pads was all I needed to know.Felt really sad for Mig-he worked on that horse all year.Not so good for me when Leroid hung on for second-I was a nostril from big money,but thats the way my whole day went.First race of the day Captain Squire just hangs on for 2nd with a bomb for 3rd.
DIstaff-Pace made that race-plain and simple and the exacta with closer closer was a function of that.
TURF-the back and forth all week with the condition of the turf warped my brain.
Classic-pace once again completely made that race.The exacta again was a complete function of that.St Liam gets a 1 1/4 easily in a race without a strongly run pace,and Flower Alley got a perfect trip stalking two average frontrunners.Even if Borrego was on his game he wasn't going to be 1-2 because of the dull pace.
What sinks in for me after every Breeders' Cup is how friggin' hard this sport is to prognosticate. We're either real smart or total masochists.
I swear I looked at all eight races and had opinions in every single one of them. It's that way every year. Even on normal racing days I always struggle with how strong my opinions are and bet accordingly, more often not betting at all. I often find myself betting 3 or 4 of the 8 races on the Breeders' Cup card. In 6 years of beig a BC fan I've had winning days 3 times. Only one year did I win and feel anything other than lucky. That was '01. The other two I know I got lucky. Ironically, the year I was good was far less profitable than the lucky ones. The difference between using the skill it takes to pick a straight winner versus the luck it takes to hit a gimmick is not properly rewarded.
Though I didn't have the big return of last year and, in fact, came up a loser for the day, I still think my new philosophy of not looking at the PPs until the day or so before the big event is sound advice. At least you don't waste a good portion of your week (or more) if you come up a loser.
I do think you can over analyze a card. Heck even looking at it Friday I was convinced that quite a few of the races might be wired, just a lack of front runners. That went out the window pretty fast as the front runners just weren't holding up. I think that was in part due to front running types tending to inherit the inside and that just wasn't the place to be. Heck St Liam looked to be a good wire bet, lone speed, yet JB kept him back early and made one run. Seems that's what it took on Saturday. I wish I'd known that Friday as I handicapped ..... just tend to get locked in on my picks. I've had too many "changing my mind" to come back to haunt me. If either Gorella or Ace wins (or Gorella 2nd) I come out a winner so I'm not too disappointed being down a few bucks.
