After spending the BC w/ Larry, probably the best handicapper I've ever met, I've come to the conclusion that success on Breeders' Cup day is due as much to capitalization as handicapping skills. And probably more to the former.
Think about it - these races are just so wide open - especially underneath the win spot that you must be absolutely perfect with your selections, or, in the alternative - you must be well capitalized.
My approach this year was completely different and it's what I will use for future Cups. My Pool raised about 9k and instead of splitting it up on different bets, I played only 5 superfectas for very large amounts (at least 1,200.00 on each) and then just a few trifectas and that was it. I did play some exactas and Pick 4's, but w/ personal money and not Pool money.
Unlike previous years, I did not play one Pick 3 as I did not think I had enough money.
For next year, I would really like to build my Pool up to the 20 - 25k range, as that's the amount I think would allow us to play every Super and both Pick 4's effectively.
I think the best approach for serious handicappers - like those on this forum - is to split their capital and use half for a Pool and half for their own selections. That way you basically have two shots - and the Pool shots give you a swing at the huge Super payouts that occur every year and for which you're probably going to have a very difficult time hitting alone w/ limited capital. There are just too many combinations that must be covered.
Perhaps next year we should even consider putting together a Forum Pick 6 Pool - just like the Players Pool that Bris now uses. It could work and is worth considering.
Just some thoughts...Dan
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