Had a chance to finally sit down with the PP's and here are my preliminary thoughts.
Juvenile Fillies- Dreaming of Anna looks like a standout. Don't think she'll have any problem with the dirt as her brother Lewis Michael has run well on it. Unfortunately the odds will be short. Octave will appreciate the distance.
Juvenile- Leaning to Stormello, but Circular Quay, Scat Daddy and CP West all will be considered.
Filly and Mare Turf- The two chalks (Ouija Board and Wait A While) look tough, but Satwa Queen can run with them. Mauralakana is my longshot special.
Sprint- Pomeroy can stalk and pounce. Henny, Bordonaro, and Too Much Bling will be on some tickets.
Mile- I'm still all over Gorella in here. Araafa and Libretist look like the best of the Euros with Sleeping Indian the sleeper.
Distaff- I'm with Croix Boy in this one. Pine Island blows by in the stretch. Round Pond is my longshot special. Taking a stand against Fleet Indian who I think is a false favorite.
Turf- The two Euros look good; Hurricane Run and Scorpion.
Classic- Bernardini, Bernardini, and Bernardini! Any horse who can run 115 Beyers in a gallop is the real deal. George Washington won't like the distance, but David Junior will and can hit the board.
These is just my first take. More during the week.
Comments are appreciated.
Steve
Off my very prelim look at the PP's here's where I stand...
Juvi Fillies - Haven't landed on one horse, but I see a suicidal pace. I will not include Dreaming of Anna on any tickets. Turf form doesn't correlate to main track form, her running style will be impeded by the presence of horses like Appealing Zophie and Cash Included. Also, I've regularly been opposed to horses shipping from Woodbine where their BSF's tend to be inflated. She's a nice filly, but I don't see her winning this race.
Juvi - Another wide open race, I tend to lean towards Circular Quay, Great Hunter, and Principle Secret. PS would be my top choice right now.
Sprint - Henny Hughes looks ultra tough. Theres a few horses I like as sleepers to hit the board, but for the win it looks like Henny will be in the garden spot to stalk and pounce.
Mile - Wide open, giving the Euro's special consideration...going to look for a few bombers in here as I'm very opposed to Gorella and Aragorn.
Distaff - Probably the most wide open race of the day...3 horses isn't even enough for me to feel comfortable here. Two horses who I like at prices are Round Pond and Happy Ticket.
F&M - I can't get past Ouija Board and Wait A While. I think Ouija Board is the supreme class of the entire Breeders Cup card and the favorite with the best chance to win.
Turf - I think Hurrican Run devastates this very lack luster crew. The 2005 Arc winner wouldn't be here if he wasn't 100% right. People will sway away from him off his last two, but will fail to realize that his trip in the Arc was horrific and in his last he was running at 1 1/4 and was the pace setter. Given that he is a grinding type closer his running style was impeded because of the pace. I expect an "A" effort from him BC day and that makes everyone else running for second money.
Classic - I'm still a bit wishy washy on this race. My top two choices are currently the worlds best 3yo's, George Washington and Bernardini. It could very well come down to those two in the final furlong. I'm very excited to see how Georgy acts when he arrives in the US.
Very tentative thoughts...More to come as Post Positions are drawn and TVG begins the Works.
This message has been edited by JMAN667 on Oct 27, 2006 10:51 AM
I know I probably sound like a broken record by now, but I cannot state how excellent of a program this is. Seeing how the horses are training has been a huge positive for me personally come BC and Derby time. Excellent show. Just form your own opinions and don't be biased by what the commentators say.
It begins tomorrow and is replayed throughout the day. They will be running 6 episodes through Thursday. Great program.
If you don't have TVG, Mike Welsch runs an excellent column on DRF reporting on the workouts. He's very impartial and I thought his work leading up to this year's Derby was excellent. Better to form your own opinion, but if you don't have TVG, Welsch does an excellent job.
8 days and counting. Time to buckle down. Good luck to all.
"The 2005 Arc winner wouldn't be here if he wasn't 100% right..."
Not the assumption I'd make here. Interesting to note his path here and that of his sire Montjeu. That one was 11 for 13 when defending his Arc title in 2000 and was coming in off four straight wins in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, Grand Prix de Saint Cloud, King George and Prix Foy.
He was pretty well-handled in that Arc and beaten again in the Champion Stakes two weeks later. Suspicion was that he was well over the top at Churchill Downs three weeks later and indeed he didn't raise a hoof when well-beaten.
Hurricane Run's schedule has been identical, with victories in the Tattersalls and the King George and narrow looses when second in the other two. Like his sire he disappointed in the Arc and the Champion. You can make trip-based excuses, but also need to acknowledge that his form has deteriorated in advance of his third start in five weeks.
The only thing preventing me from discarding him entirely at this stage is out of respect for the world's top horseman Andre Fabre.
Scorpion has the look to me of Milan, which was a flying second to Fantastic Light in '01 and Red Rocks is a little interesting too. Neither would handle Hurricane Run on his best day, but that day might be past.
I agree with Jason that you have to forgive Hurricane's Arc finish. Watch the replay and you'll see that he lost all chance when blocked. The jock nearly jerked him to a stop and then I felt he re-rallied strongly, under the circumstances. Might well have won with a clean trip.
I hope the public thinks of him as over the top. 4 or 5/1 would be a gift.
I'll throw out there who I'm interested in at an early stage. No in depth analysis. Obviously subject to change due to post positions, how horses are working, how many beers I've consumed, if I've decided to replace smoking a Marlboro Light with something else, and who Andy Beyer, Mike Watchmaker, and Matt Carothers put the whammy on. Very scientific approach I have.
Juvenile Fillies
Untouched Talent - Good two turn breeding. Ran well last time out at Keeneland while showing speed on a track where speed wasn't holding well. Keeping a close eye on her.
Gatorize - Tough trip at Keeneland from the 12 hole. Showed gameness coming from behind horses and going very wide late. I respect Helen Pitts and see this one finishing late when many may be backpedaling. Will be a big number in a wide open race. Why not.
Sutalgi - We don't exactly have any world beaters over here. New shooter at a big number.
Juvenile
Great Hunter, Circular Quay, Principle Secret - I've spoken about them before and my opinion on them hasn't changed. Will keep an eye on them over the course of the next week.
C P West - My longshot special for the race. Broke his maiden going 6 F 1st time out at Saratoga in good fashion. Bit green late and if memory serves me correctly, he didn't change leads late. 2nd time out in the Futurity going 7 F he broke from the inside, went out and then dropped back a bit, was game behind horses, and found his best stride late. No problems with lead changes either and appears to have a good mind. Not one of those wacko 2 year olds that are speed crazy. Breeding is Came Home out of a Dynaformer mare so the 2 turn 1 1/16 of the Juvenile should not be a problem. Gives up some seasoning, but will be a big number and I think he'll be pretty live.
Filly and Mare Turf
Ouija Board and Wait a While - Next question.
Sprint
Henny Hughes and Commentator. A closer to be determined at a later date. That will give me a speed horse, a stalker, and a closer. Good enough for me.
Mile
I've spoken at length about Silent Name. I like him a good deal at a big number. Araafa and Librettist are obvious inclusions. Will dig into this race some more over the weekend.
Distaff
It'd probably be easier for me to type who I don't like. Wide open. Spun Sugar should rebound off the polytrack disaster. Her best races have come 2nd off a layoff. Mike Luzzi has done an excellent job with her.
Also looking favorably upon Round Pond, Happy Ticket, Pine Island, and Balletto. Looking to play against Fleet Indian.
Turf
First, a plea to the general public. Please, please, please, make English Channel the post time favorite. I'm beggin ya.
Hurricane Run and Red Rocks have my interest as far as the Europeans are concerned. That's me stating the obvious. I don't like Scorpion. 1 prep off the serious injury and year layoff isn't going to get it done here in my opinion. I hope he takes an inordinate amount of money.
I'm taking a liking to Cacique more and more. With Rush Bay and Icy Atlantic entered, it should allow for a couple of horses to clear in front of Cacique early on. I've gone on and on about the different type of horse he is when he's allowed to run covered up. This situation should allow for it.
In the Man O' War, he produced a final 1/8th of 10.95 seconds which isn't a joke. That's a serious final furlong. The Man O' War was run at a 1 3/8 and I don't see the problem with another furlong for him. I just want him covered up along the inside. Doesn't seem like I'm asking too much.
Classic
I've mentioned before that I'm tossing Bernardini, Lava Man, and Invasor from the multirace exotics. I'll give a short explanation as to why.
Bernardini - He's run some big numbers against inferior competition. Dropping the knockout blow on Dylan Thomas (didn't like the dirt), Wanderin Boy, and Andromeda's Hero last time out doesn't get my pulse racing. I could run fast against those horses in that situation ( 1 1/4 on the dirt). If he didn't then we'd have problems.
He hasn't had to look a horse in the eye and get into a dog fight. He also hasn't faced serious older horses while under pace presure. Take all of that, throw in the fact that he'll be in the 8/5 range even with these question marks, and the entire United States of America will either be singling him or including him on the back end of pick 3 and pick 4 tickets. It gives me enough reason to look elsewhere. If he dominates I'll just look at my donation as a small price to pay while seeing a champion perform on racing's championship day.
Lava Man - Easy to root for from a fan perspective. The blue collar horse he's been referenced as. I agree and it's a great story. I just don't think he's fast enough. I do feel he'll have a big say as to the eventual winner as he'll be mixing it up in there for a while. Doing the dirty work and softening up others. The winning connections should send him some extra carrots and peppermints.
Invasor - Price won't compensate for the way he's coming into this race. He missed his prep race due to a fever. I could possibly forgive that if his price was higher, but as the 3rd choice with what has taken place with him, I'm taking a pass.
So right now I'm zoning in on four horses. They are as follows.
Sun King - His last two were pretty big races including a rallying performance on a speed favoring track in the Woodward. I'm using him in case the race completely falls apart late. With so many horses having a similar running style that very well could happen. He's the fastest of the closers and Churchill's long stetch will aid his late close.
Premium Tap - Bred to get better with age being by Pleasant Tap. His last showed a lot of gameness after stumbling and nearly going down. He didn't quit and tried to come back late in the race before flattening out a bit. Edgar gets aboard and he won with the horse the only other time he rode him (although that was in a 1 turn race at Belmont). It'll be up to Prado to put him in perfect position, but Edgar's one of if not the best in the business when it comes to positioning a horse in a race. He'll be a big number and he has some upside.
George Washington and David Junior - I'm not sure what to expect from them. They're classy and hopefully they'll take to the dirt. Their prices will compensate for the unknown factor for me personally.
Just some early thoughts. We'll see what changes during the course of the next week. Good luck everyone.
If only the Arc were his most recent start, his failure there might be more easily explained away but he lost again two weeks later and is now asked to ship across the ocean and try for a third time in five weeks.
If you had an American three-year-old which lost the Derby as the second choice and lost the Preakness as the favorite, I doubt we'd be looking to play him back at short odds three weeks later in the Belmont, especially if they were running the Belmont in Europe that year.
His objective for the year was most certainly his Arc defense and not the Breeders' Cup Turf. This is his second afterthought race in three weeks. The BC might not rival the Arc in prestige or difficulty, but it's not a race you expect to win without aiming for it.
Following are the comment notes from his run ion the Champion:
" Hurricane Run hadn't enjoyed much luck in the Arc, but the return to 1m2f for the first time since his easy Curragh defeat of Alexander Goldrun on soft ground in the spring was a worry, especially as he has always looked a colt that needs knowing and it threatened to be a tactical affair, with no obvious front runner. It was on the cards that he might have to make the running, and that's what happened, but having led narrowly to around three furlongs out, he couldn't match the winner's speed, though he rallied to almost regain second. We probably got a bit too carried away with last year's Arc winning form, but he hasn't quite looked the same horse this year and the parallels with his sire Montjeu continue. Connections will look at the Japan Cup and the Breeders' Cup Turf, but Andre Fabre is concerned about the possible lack of pace in the latter event."
This is a seriously good race horse, and because of Fabre it would be no stunner to see him beat a field which would be the softest he's seen all year. But note that he went off at a tepid 2-1 in the Champion Stakes (Montjeu was less than even money when second to BC winner Kalinisi in the same race) and isn't held in nearly the same regard as his sire was when that one failed to produce any kind of run in his swan song.
At this point I'm inclined to eliminate him from my multi-race bets and hedge with in exactas, tris and/or doubles if need be. I'd hate to see the great Fabre hoisting the trophy and have to rip up all my tickets.
This message has been edited by gallantbob on Oct 27, 2006 2:40 PM
Pretty good for a first look Mike and should be expected there are lots of agreement and a few disagreements.
Juvenile Fillies
"Untouched Talent - Good two turn breeding. Ran well last time out at Keeneland while showing speed on a track where speed wasn't holding well. Keeping a close eye on her.
Gatorize - Tough trip at Keeneland from the 12 hole. Showed gameness coming from behind horses and going very wide late. I respect Helen Pitts and see this one finishing late when many may be backpedaling. Will be a big number in a wide open race. Why not.
Sutalgi - We don't exactly have any world beaters over here. New shooter at a big number."
I also like Untouched Talent for the same reasons. Big effort on that track. Cotton Blossom had almost the same trip with nearly the same result and will be five times the price. Someone else mentioned Her Majesty and she also had an impossible task in the same race. I had Belair Beauty in the same race (my only highlight of a less-than satisfying Keeneland meet). It would be hard not to play her back at 20-1, but she did enjoy a perfect set-up that day. Cash Included looks legit also.
Juvenile
"Great Hunter, Circular Quay, Principle Secret - I've spoken about them before and my opinion on them hasn't changed. Will keep an eye on them over the course of the next week.
C P West - My longshot special for the race. Broke his maiden going 6 F 1st time out at Saratoga in good fashion. Bit green late and if memory serves me correctly, he didn't change leads late. 2nd time out in the Futurity going 7 F he broke from the inside, went out and then dropped back a bit, was game behind horses, and found his best stride late. No problems with lead changes either and appears to have a good mind. Not one of those wacko 2 year olds that are speed crazy. Breeding is Came Home out of a Dynaformer mare so the 2 turn 1 1/16 of the Juvenile should not be a problem. Gives up some seasoning, but will be a big number and I think he'll be pretty live."
I was against Circular Quay in his last and didn't see
anything to make me want to reconsider him at short odds. I agree with you on CP West. Nick has thrown his old two-year-old program in the bin and is now as interested in winning early as he is in winning the Derby. Great Hunter and Street Sense ran well enough and Principle Secret looks playable also. Pegasus Wind will be in front a long way-used to be a pretty good formula for Wayne in this race. I called Scat Daddy a fraud before the Champagne and saw how that opinion played out. I still say he loses here. That Belmont move won't work here.
Filly and Mare Turf
"Ouija Board and Wait a While - Next question."
Ouija Board is my favorite turf filly since Pebbles and Flawlessly and might be the most likely winner on the card. Wait a While is obviously very good but hasn't faced any significant competition, a more valid criticism on turf than on dirt IMO. Still, when you're winning turf races by open lengths when most are decided by heads and necks, you're pretty good. The only other with any interest at all is Germance. She's a galloper which ran too short last time and will improve with added ground.
Sprint
"Henny Hughes and Commentator. A closer to be determined at a later date. That will give me a speed horse, a stalker, and a closer. Good enough for me."
Not nearly finished with this race, but I can tell you I hate Commemtator. Half the field is quick as he is for a half mile, which is about the last time you'll hear his name called. Not sold on Henny Hughes and din't care much for Too Much Bling. Bordonaro's California-fast and that still counts for something. Dubai Escapade and Siren Lure look fine to me and Friendly Island might be my bomb here.
Mile
"I've spoken at length about Silent Name. I like him a good deal at a big number. Araafa and Librettist are obvious inclusions. Will dig into this race some more over the weekend."
Araafa, Aragorn, Aussie Rules, Gorella, Librettist and Rob Roy have made the first cut. Leaning ever so slightly to Gorella.
Distaff
"It'd probably be easier for me to type who I don't like. Wide open. Spun Sugar should rebound off the polytrack disaster. Her best races have come 2nd off a layoff. Mike Luzzi has done an excellent job with her.
Also looking favorably upon Round Pond, Happy Ticket, Pine Island, and Balletto. Looking to play against Fleet Indian."
Haven't formed much of an opinion here. Also looking for Fleet Indian to his a wall, although her last showed a dimension I didn't think her capable of.
Turf
"First, a plea to the general public. Please, please, please, make English Channel the post time favorite. I'm beggin ya.
Hurricane Run and Red Rocks have my interest as far as the Europeans are concerned. That's me stating the obvious. I don't like Scorpion. 1 prep off the serious injury and year layoff isn't going to get it done here in my opinion. I hope he takes an inordinate amount of money.
I'm taking a liking to Cacique more and more. With Rush Bay and Icy Atlantic entered, it should allow for a couple of horses to clear in front of Cacique early on. I've gone on and on about the different type of horse he is when he's allowed to run covered up. This situation should allow for it.
In the Man O' War, he produced a final 1/8th of 10.95 seconds which isn't a joke. That's a serious final furlong. The Man O' War was run at a 1 3/8 and I don't see the problem with another furlong for him. I just want him covered up along the inside. Doesn't seem like I'm asking too much."
I love Hurricane Run. (Now I'm covered both ways).
Classic
"I've mentioned before that I'm tossing Bernardini, Lava Man, and Invasor from the multirace exotics. I'll give a short explanation as to why.
Bernardini - He's run some big numbers against inferior competition. Dropping the knockout blow on Dylan Thomas (didn't like the dirt), Wanderin Boy, and Andromeda's Hero last time out doesn't get my pulse racing. I could run fast against those horses in that situation ( 1 1/4 on the dirt). If he didn't then we'd have problems.
He hasn't had to look a horse in the eye and get into a dog fight. He also hasn't faced serious older horses while under pace presure. Take all of that, throw in the fact that he'll be in the 8/5 range even with these question marks, and the entire United States of America will either be singling him or including him on the back end of pick 3 and pick 4 tickets. It gives me enough reason to look elsewhere. If he dominates I'll just look at my donation as a small price to pay while seeing a champion perform on racing's championship day.
Lava Man - Easy to root for from a fan perspective. The blue collar horse he's been referenced as. I agree and it's a great story. I just don't think he's fast enough. I do feel he'll have a big say as to the eventual winner as he'll be mixing it up in there for a while. Doing the dirty work and softening up others. The winning connections should send him some extra carrots and peppermints.
Invasor - Price won't compensate for the way he's coming into this race. He missed his prep race due to a fever. I could possibly forgive that if his price was higher, but as the 3rd choice with what has taken place with him, I'm taking a pass.
So right now I'm zoning in on four horses. They are as follows.
Sun King - His last two were pretty big races including a rallying performance on a speed favoring track in the Woodward. I'm using him in case the race completely falls apart late. With so many horses having a similar running style that very well could happen. He's the fastest of the closers and Churchill's long stetch will aid his late close.
Premium Tap - Bred to get better with age being by Pleasant Tap. His last showed a lot of gameness after stumbling and nearly going down. He didn't quit and tried to come back late in the race before flattening out a bit. Edgar gets aboard and he won with the horse the only other time he rode him (although that was in a 1 turn race at Belmont). It'll be up to Prado to put him in perfect position, but Edgar's one of if not the best in the business when it comes to positioning a horse in a race. He'll be a big number and he has some upside.
George Washington and David Junior - I'm not sure what to expect from them. They're classy and hopefully they'll take to the dirt. Their prices will compensate for the unknown factor for me personally.
Just some early thoughts. We'll see what changes during the course of the next week. Good luck everyone."
I'm against Lava Man and possibly Invasor. The horse I'd most like to see win, as a fan, is George Washington but I think his style-held up for a devastating late burst going a mile-might not translate well stretching out on dirt. I'm using him anyway. David Junior, too. Bernadini's every inch the real deal. He'll be right there making sure Lava Man doesn't sneak away at the three-eighths pole. GW might fire his best shot as a middle move also. One of the most anticipated Classics in years.
g-bob - what his sire did is all fine and dandy, but I will never utilize a sire's performance in a race to what his offspring will do when they run in the same races. You make good points that they had a similar campaign and have shown (on paper) similar efforts. What you fail to mention are the trouble lines shown in the Arc and the fact that he was required to dictate the pace in the Champion Stakes. After watching both replays (via youtube) I am of the opinion that everyone in this race is running for second if he is on his game. The fact that he was beaten by Rail Link in the Arc is no shock in hindsight. Rail Link is now 4 for 4 over the Longchamp course and HR had no shot at winning given the trip. He then comes back two weeks later and is defeated by Pride who is arguably the best mare in world presently and was beaten a nose in the Arc. The fact that he was forced to run on the front end in that race also adds to his case, this is not a front running colt, he's a grinder/closer. If anything, I think his last race may set him up for a peak effort in the Breeders Cup.
I understand why you would choose to try and play against this horse but I for one will be using him as a major key in my multirace exotics. I know that his best is best and that his 'B+' game might still beat everyone. I also think many people will have a similar mindset that you have and he will compensate in value. One of us will be right...
Also, I would like to have others opinions of his last race in the Chmapion Stakes. It has gotten a lot of sour reviews that I totally disagree with. If you do a search for "HURRICANE RUN CHAMPION" on youtube you can get the English call.
This message has been edited by JMAN667 on Oct 27, 2006 3:32 PM
What I think you're failing to appreciate is the effect of running three times in five weeks. This is not how successful European pattern racers are campaigned and I can't think of one which has come over for a curtain call and been successful. If you believe his form is as good as last years, I disagree and if you're in trouble in a seven horse field on one of the world's biggest race tracks, you're probably not running fast enough.
I'll take my chances with a fresher animal or one that has had this as a primary objective since the beginniig of the year.
Check out what the folks across the pond are saying about this year's BC!
